Climb over the mountain
The road to recovery under global economic changes
After the double impact of international finance and European debt crisis, the road to world economic recovery is bumpy and tortuous, and the haze has not completely dissipated. Judging from the global economic and financial pattern, the deviation between the real economy and the virtual economy has not changed substantially, the gap between the North and the South is still in front of us, and the road to "rebalancing" the world economy is long.
20 15 the difficult climb of the world economy provides proof. The International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast of world economic growth in 20 15 to 3. 1%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous year, which is the slowest growth year since it entered the recovery channel.
The slowdown in global economic growth is manifested in the limited growth of developed economies and the overall decline in the growth rate of emerging economies. Some reports predict that the developed economies will only grow by 2% in 20 15. For emerging markets and developing economies, the growth rate has dropped significantly, with an increase of 4%, which has been declining for five consecutive years. Countries such as Russia and Brazil fell into negative growth, while China and India performed better.
Among the developed economies, due to the low oil price, the increase of government expenditure and the promotion of high-tech innovation industries, the economic recovery of the United States has been steadily strengthened, and it is expected that there will still be bright performance in 20 16, with the growth level at least equivalent to that of the previous year. Thanks to the sharp drop in international oil prices and the quantitative easing monetary policy, the European economy grew moderately; However, due to high unemployment rate, low trade and geopolitical risks, deflation threat brought by low inflation and other factors, the economic outlook of Europe in 20 16 is still unclear.
For some emerging economies, 20 16 will still be a challenging year. The economic growth momentum of China and India is relatively clear, while Russia and Brazil will still seek solutions to stagflation.
In addition, the high global debt has curbed the potential growth of the global economy, and the world economy will still struggle in 20 16, and the growth rate may be lower than last year.
Undercurrent surge
Risk interweaving under the situation of global recovery
Looking forward to 20 16, there are many variables in the world economy, and the greater source of risk is the uncertainty brought by the Fed's interest rate hike. Although the market is well prepared in the early stage, large-scale capital changes and currency depreciation will still have an impact on developing economies with current account deficits and limited foreign exchange reserves. The pressure of commodity prices is not good news for resource-exporting economies.
The differentiation of monetary policies in major economies is becoming more and more obvious, which will be a challenge for economies that implement loose monetary policies. According to a report released by the Washington-based International Financial Industry Association, last year, major emerging economies faced the first net capital outflow in 27 years due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and economic growth slowdown, and the amount is expected to exceed 500 billion US dollars. This year, major emerging economies will also face a net capital outflow of more than $300 billion.
The decline of global trade is also a major negative factor in the world economy. The forecast of world trade growth in 20 15 has been lowered for many times due to factors such as falling demand, falling commodity prices and fluctuations in the global exchange rate market. The latest forecast of WTO shows that the global trade volume will increase by 2.8% in 20 15, and the growth rate will hover below 3% for the fourth consecutive year. Considering the slow growth of developing economies and the uncertainty of global financial environment, global trade will remain sluggish in 20 16, which will increase the risk of trade protection and competitive devaluation of currencies and bring negative energy to global economic recovery.
In an interdependent world economy, the economic decline of one country will harm other countries. For resource-exporting emerging economies, their economic weakness will have spillover effects. Last year, crude oil prices fell by more than 30%, and iron ore prices fell by more than 40%. Due to the competition for market share, major oil-producing countries have not implemented production restrictions. It is expected that oil prices will remain low this year. Although there is wealth transfer between oil exporting countries and oil importing countries, the decline in purchasing power of oil exporting countries and the decline in return on investment of oil exporting countries will also hurt oil importing countries. For emerging economies, only by strengthening their economic competitiveness through structural reforms can they reduce their economic vulnerability.
We should also pay close attention to the geopolitical trend of 20 16. The wrestling between the Middle East and the major powers in Europe and other regions has intensified. In addition, the threat of terrorism has suddenly increased, affecting the nerves of the global market and affecting the world economy through financial markets, trade and industrial chains.
Drive against the wind
Path Selection under the "New Normal" of China's Economy
The stock market plunged and the exchange rate fell-China's economy suffered a big test on 20 15. For China, which has entered the "deep water area" and "critical area" of reform, it is necessary to overcome risks. According to the information revealed by the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year, keeping the bottom line and opening up prospects set the tone for the economic operation in 20 16.
Looking back on 20 15, the economic growth rate of China gradually slowed down, with the growth rates of 7.0%, 7.0% and 6.9% in the first three quarters respectively. It is estimated that the annual economic growth rate will be around 7%. This year is a year of surging economic tide in China. "internet plus", Made in China 2025, entrepreneurial innovation, and the emergence of China's economic vitality. Innovation-driven is gradually replacing factor-driven as the main driving force for growth, and boosting China's economic transformation and upgrading.
In the new year, China's economy still needs to face up to challenges: overcapacity and deleveraging pressure in some industries, real estate destocking needs to increase, investment growth slows down, and foreign trade uncertainty increases. This just shows the necessity of structural reform.
Judging from the Central Economic Work Conference, the decision-makers have made clear arrangements for the structural reform and important reform areas in the new year, and put forward five major tasks: de-capacity, de-inventory, de-leverage, cost reduction and short-boarding. International observers who have been paying close attention to China's economy for a long time believe that the reform impetus of decision-makers will give China's economy a new impetus.