Take the big bull market in 2007 as an example.
The appreciation of RMB has also played a considerable role. The RMB exchange rate first fell below the 1:8 mark, and then approached the level of 7.6. Undoubtedly, the sharp appreciation of RMB has made its own contribution to the bull market. Exchange reform and share reform almost appeared at the same time, which also means that there is a certain connection between them. If carefully analyzed, this round of RMB appreciation is slightly earlier than the start of the stock market, which also reflects that RMB appreciation has a certain precursor to the start of the stock market.
Secondly, until June 2007 10, there was a positive correlation between RMB appreciation and the stock market trend, and there were many factors that influenced each other. However, when the stock market was crazy to the extreme, that is, after the stock market peaked in June 65438+1October 65438+June 2007, the market took a sharp turn and plummeted all the way. At this time, the pace of RMB appreciation not only did not stop, but accelerated after the stock market peaked, until April of the following year. After April, the pace of RMB appreciation weakened until it stabilized. It can also be seen that in the process of bear market, the reaction of the stock market is obviously earlier than the RMB exchange rate, and the stock market has a certain turning point to guide the RMB exchange rate.
From the second half of 2008 to the present, the RMB exchange rate has not changed much, basically maintaining at the level of 6.8, and is in the process of moderate appreciation. Compared with the previous ups and downs, the stock market in this period undoubtedly showed a moderate upward trend. From the time point of view, the inflection point of RMB exchange rate leveling appeared in July 2008, and the stock market stabilized and rebounded in June 5438+ 10, which once again showed that the performance of RMB exchange rate had certain leading characteristics for the stock market before the arrival of the bull market.