The capital market this year can be said to be one storm after another. It is really unpredictable. I worry about US stocks at night, and A-shares and Hong Kong stocks during the day... Recently, the #RMB exchange rate depreciated to 6.8 yuan against the US dollar#. A hot topic in the capital market, the exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar has plummeted. I have to say that the depreciation speed of the RMB is so magical. From mid-April to mid-May, in a dozen trading days, the RMB depreciated by 6.6%, from 6.37 to 6.80.

Many people will wonder if the sharp fall of the RMB against the US dollar means that the RMB is no longer valuable?

This is about our country’s exchange rate system. On August 11, 2015, my country reformed its exchange rate system, known as the “8·11” exchange rate reform. The current exchange rate system is a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and adjusted with reference to a basket of currencies. What does it mean? In the past, the RMB exchange rate was only based on the US dollar. After the exchange rate reform, it was based on a basket of currencies. However, the RMB exchange rate still does not float freely, but is managed, and regulators will make adjustments when necessary.

After the "8·11" exchange reform, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB fluctuated between 6.24 and 7.19.

Many friends are worried. The RMB exchange rate has been depreciating recently. They will worry about whether their savings will shrink and whether they should buy some gold bars or the like. After all, this is the only way to maintain value.

The reality is not as everyone understands. The depreciation of the exchange rate has indeed reduced the international purchasing power of the RMB. If you are an overseas purchaser, you may have to spend more. But if you mainly consume domestically, don’t worry at all. The depreciation of the RMB will not have a direct impact on domestic prices, and they will naturally not shrink.

What impact will that have on us?

From a macro perspective, the biggest impact is the following situations:

1. Stock and bond markets

The depreciation of the RMB is not a long-term trend, but a short-term trend. Fluctuations cannot be ignored either. Laos and the United States continue to interfere, and the market is in a pessimistic state, which has caused the stock market to plummet recently. We are not sure what will happen next. There are also pressures on the domestic economy, etc., and the stock and bond markets will be affected.

2. Commodities

Mainly from two aspects. First, the price of commodities settled in US dollars may face great downward pressure. Second, the cost of raw materials will increase, which will increase commodity prices. A weakening economy, driven by both factors, may have a negative impact on commodities.

3. Real Estate

The RMB exchange rate has depreciated, but the growth in housing prices has not diminished. This illustrates a problem. The exchange rate is not the most important factor in determining domestic housing prices. If the exchange rate is not a trend and has a large Depreciation, house prices should not be affected by exchange rate changes. Because more factors affecting housing prices are domestic policies, resident demand and money supply, short-term exchange rate fluctuations will only have a small impact.

For ordinary people, it mainly affects international students, overseas shopping people and people going abroad.

1. Expenditure on studying abroad has increased significantly

International students can be said to be the group with the largest demand for foreign exchange. Once the RMB depreciates, their living expenses, tuition and fees will increase. Especially if you study in the United States, it may cost a lot more money. And summer is coming soon. This period is the peak season for studying abroad and traveling, so the demand for foreign exchange is definitely higher than usual.

2. The cost of exchange for overseas shopping has increased

Overseas shopping means buying foreign goods. If the RMB depreciates, it will be more expensive to convert into RMB. Especially new families pay great attention to the nutrition of their children. Some parents who buy overseas purchase milk powder and cosmetics every month, which is a big expense. Now they may have to support 100-200 RMB per month.

3. Expenditures of tourists have increased

Some people who are keen to travel abroad spend a lot of money on transportation, accommodation, etc., as well as buying cosmetics, luxury bags, and watches. Although they may He is very rich, but no one's money comes from strong winds, and now he has to dig deeper into his pockets. Travel agencies may also increase their quotations for overseas travel, especially to the United States. As the RMB depreciates, fewer people may travel abroad.

In fact, the depreciation of the RMB is a double-edged sword. Some suffer losses while others benefit. We cannot generalize.