20 12 After the Diaoyu Islands incident in September, the general trend of the yen exchange rate was decided-whether it was a long-term depreciation or a sharp depreciation. 20 14 year target 120 yen pair 1 USD. However, for a long time, it was difficult to say at what level the yen exchange rate was stable-which determined the international situation of the US dollar strengthening in the medium term. You can never say that the yen exchange rate will strengthen. It can only be a shock depreciation, and the exchange rate will fluctuate during the depreciation period. For example, in 1995, 79 yen depreciated to 1 US dollar, all the way to 1.997, and 120 yen depreciated to 1 US dollar because of the Asian financial crisis in 1997. Risk aversion soared and the yen appreciated from 120 yen to 1 USD -0998 11JPY to1USD. Finally, in the autumn of 1998, it finally depreciated to 147 yen against the US dollar-a great devaluation that shocked the world in the 1990s (Japan/USA 79- Japan/USA 147). After that devaluation, the basis of the yen's renewed strength after many years is that the Japanese economy has found its economic growth point again. Moreover, the return of overseas yen assets has supported Japan's economic recovery. The Diaoyu Islands incident started in the autumn of 20 12, which aroused China's sanctions against Japan and almost interrupted Japan's export-oriented economy-the export-driven economy of high-tech products. Japan's exports are finished, domestic demand is insufficient, and the lifeline of the national economy is worrying. This time, the depreciation of the yen was forced by Japan, not because Japan wanted to depreciate. Therefore, once the long-term appreciation trend of the yen is over, it will enter a long-term depreciation trend. The Diaoyu Islands incident in September 20 12 ended the long-term appreciation trend of the yen for 40 years (1973, during the second oil crisis, the yen rose from 360 yen to 1 US dollar, which was the beginning of the long-term appreciation of the yen). Finally, if you want to calculate the exchange rate of the yen at 20 1995- 1998 by mechanically applying the formula of continuous depreciation of the yen for three years, I can only answer you two points. First, the exchange rate is not calculated casually-neither will you. Second, even if mechanically applying the formula of 1995- 1998 yen depreciation for three consecutive years-the exchange rate is-135 yen to 1 yen-the yen will fall by 35%-40% at most on the basis of the current exchange rate, not necessarily at the bottom. Any fantasies? 1 968,360 yen pair 1 USD, 1 973,308 yen pair 1 USD,1985,260 yen pair1USD,1995,79 yen pair/ 2003 135 yen 1 USD, 2007 125 yen 1 USD. Isn't the appreciation of the yen terrible? So the wind and water turn-the depreciation of the yen will be terrible. Maybe 20 17 150 yen didn't depreciate much against 1 dollar-200 yen wasn't too much against 1 dollar last time, but the yen appreciated from more than 300 to 80, and it wasn't too much to go back to 200. The 2020 Tokyo Olympics brought Japan back (the yen was strong)-too funny-impossible-hold on. Some people compare the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games to 1964 Tokyo Olympic Games-just like pretending to understand, ghosts are around (1964 yen has been brewing for 40 years, when 360 yen was changed to 1 US dollar).