Although the Fed is still in the cycle of raising interest rates, it is unlikely that the dollar will continue to appreciate in the Trump era. On the contrary, in order to stimulate US exports and revitalize the US real economy, Trump is more inclined to guide the dollar to fluctuate or fall in both directions.

In the Trump team's policy toolbox, the US government may verbally intervene, unite with other countries or even instruct the Ministry of Finance or the Federal Reserve to directly intervene in the foreign exchange market, affecting the trend of the US dollar exchange rate and achieving its policy objectives.

With the gradual peak of the US dollar index and the continuous pressure from the Trump team, the depreciation pressure of the RMB against the US dollar will gradually ease, and there may even be a slight appreciation trend. For ordinary investors, it is not advisable to overestimate the trend of the US dollar and underestimate the RMB exchange rate.