Xie, the macro chief analyst of China Merchants Securities, said in an interview with the Economic Information Daily that there are three reasons for the rebound of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar: First, the US dollar index fell; The second is to introduce countercyclical factors into the quotation model of RMB middle price; Third, the relationship between foreign exchange supply and demand has improved.
The data shows that from April to early May, without introducing countercyclical factors, the US dollar index fell by 1.95%, the central parity rose slightly, and the spot exchange rate depreciated. After introducing countercyclical factors in mid-May, the US dollar index fell by 2.7%, and the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of RMB rose by 0.6 1% and 1.20% respectively. Xie also said that if the future countercyclical factor wants to have a positive impact on the RMB exchange rate, the key is whether it can continue to change the "procyclicality" of the supply and demand level in the foreign exchange market to a certain extent, so that the supply and demand of foreign exchange can more fully reflect the fundamental changes.
Industry experts said that the RMB exchange rate rebound also showed two other characteristics. First of all, both offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates have rebounded significantly. The spot exchange rate of onshore RMB rebounded from 6.9040 in May 10 to 6.8 162 on June 2, with an increase of 1.27%. The offshore RMB exchange rate rebounded from 6.9 134 in May to 6.7758 on June 2, with an increase of 1.99%. Second, the offshore RMB exchange rate rose more than the onshore exchange rate.
Looking ahead, Xie believes that whether the RMB exchange rate can continue to strengthen is still affected by multiple factors. First, the trend of the US dollar index in the second half of the year; Second, what will happen to the demand for foreign exchange by economic entities, and whether there will be new incremental funds for foreign exchange supply; Thirdly, whether the introduction of countercyclical factors can continuously change the procyclical behavior of foreign exchange market players and weaken unilateral depreciation expectations by increasing the volatility of exchange rates. "It is expected that in the second half of the year, the US dollar index will fall in some months, foreign exchange supply will exceed demand, and countercyclical factors will continue to play a role. These will promote the phased recovery of the RMB exchange rate. "