A series of gross indicators, such as industry rate, import and export trade volume, government expenditure, total retail sales of social goods, etc., of which the most important are gross national product and national income. (Feel the strongest attack band in China stock market ...)
(1) gross national product. Gross National Product (GNP) is the most common and important indicator that comprehensively reflects the achievements of a country's economic activities in a certain period (usually one year). It is the abbreviation of gross national product calculated at market price, and its content is the final result of the initial income distribution of all permanent units in a country in a certain period of time. The added value created by the production activities of a country's resident units is mainly distributed to the country's resident units in the initial distribution process, but some of it is also distributed to the country's non-resident units in the form of labor remuneration and property income. At the same time, part of the added value created by foreign production is distributed to the permanent units of the country in the form of workers' remuneration and property income, thus producing the concept of gross national product.
The connotation of gross national product (GNP) refers to how GNP produced during the statistical period is distributed and used among various sectors of the national economy. It can be calculated by the following methods: First, the product flow method. Product flow method is also called product expenditure method or final product method. Starting from the use of products, it adds up the costs of purchasing various final products in a year to calculate the market value of products and services produced in that year, that is, it adds up the money spent on purchasing various final products to get the sum of the monetary value of social final products. When using this method to calculate the gross national product, we do not calculate the intermediate products used as inputs in the later production stage, but only consider the products that are finally used by people. For example, in the GNP statistics of the United States, according to the product flow method, its GNP can be expressed as the following formula: GNP = A+B+C+D-E, where A represents personal consumption expenditure, B represents total private investment, C represents government expenditure, and (D-E) represents net export. (Exclusive securities reference, revealing more inside information ...)
Second, the income method (income method). Income method, also known as factor payment method, is to add all kinds of income formed in production from the perspective of production, that is, to add employee remuneration, income of owners of non-corporate enterprises, company profits, net interest, rental income, depreciation of fixed assets and indirect taxes to get the gross national product.
Third, the departmental law. The departmental method is also called the production method because it calculates the gross national product according to the output value of material products and all departments providing services and reflects the source of national income. When calculating according to this method, all production departments should deduct the output value of the intermediate products used and only calculate the added value.
Among the above three calculation methods, the product flow method is the most basic one, and the final figure of GNP should be based on it. If the figures calculated by the other two methods are inconsistent with those calculated by the product flow method, the figures calculated by the product flow method should be adjusted.
When calculating the gross national product, two other gross indicators closely related to it are generally calculated at the same time: gross domestic product (GDP) and net gross national product (NNP).
Gross domestic product is the abbreviation of gross domestic product calculated at market price. It is the final result of the production activities of all permanent units in a country (or region) in a certain period of time. There are three forms of GDP, namely, value form, income form and product form. From the perspective of value form, it is the difference between the value of all goods and services produced by all permanent units and the value of all non-fixed assets goods and services invested in the same period, that is, the sum of the added value of all permanent units; From the perspective of income form, it is the sum of the initial distribution income created by all permanent units and distributed to permanent units and non-permanent units in a certain period of time; From the product form, it is the final use of goods and services minus imported goods and services.
In actual accounting, the calculation method of GDP is the same as GNP, that is, product flow method, income method and department method. The difference between gross national product and gross domestic product is that the former is the concept of income and the latter is the concept of production. Therefore, GDP is equal to GNP plus remuneration and property income paid to foreign workers minus remuneration and property income from foreign workers.
Net national product refers to the net value of products and services produced by a country in a certain period of time, expressed by market prices. This indicator indicates the total value of products and services that the country can use for social consumption and net investment, which is equal to the output value after deducting depreciation from the gross national product.
② National income (NI). National income is another main comprehensive index reflecting a country's national economic situation. It is the total income of various factors of production used by a country in a certain period of time, that is, it is equal to the sum of wages, profits, interest, rent and government subsidies, and it is also equal to the gross national product minus the indirect taxes of enterprises plus government subsidies. Expressed by the formula: national income = salary+profit+interest+rent+subsidy = national net product-enterprise.
Personal income refers to the total income obtained by individuals in a certain period of time in a country, which is equal to national income MINUS undistributed profits and income tax, plus government transfer payments to families and government interest payments to families. Disposable personal income is equal to subtracting personal income tax and property tax from personal income, that is to say, the total disposable income of a country in a certain period can be divided into two parts: personal consumption expenditure and personal savings.
(3) Real gross national product and per capita gross national product. Gross national product is expressed in currency, so there may be two reasons for its change: one is the actual change of output, and the other is the change of price.
The change of GNP caused by output change is normal, while the change of GNP caused by price change is false. In order to accurately reflect the change of output and make the comparison of gross national product in each year reflect the actual situation of economic development, it is necessary to adjust at constant prices to eliminate the influence of price changes. Similarly, national income should be the same.
When converting the current year's GNP at constant prices, it is generally necessary to first determine a certain year as the base year, and take the price of that year as the constant price, and then use the price index to adjust the GNP calculated at the current year's price. In this way, the gross national product calculated at constant prices is obtained for comparison.
The price index is the ratio of the total value of each single commodity calculated at the current price to the total value calculated at the constant price of the base year, usually expressed as a percentage. For ordinary investors, the data required by this method is difficult to find, so it is not applicable. In fact, the actual GNP can also be obtained by using the relevant information published in the China Statistical Yearbook. For example, the GNP of China 1990 was18,53100 billion yuan, and the nominal GNP of 1994 was 4,500.6 billion yuan. Taking 1990 as the base year, it can be found from the Statistical Yearbook of China that the development speed from 1994 to 1990 is 158.5%, and the GNP of 1990 can be multiplied to get1. However, if the nominal GNP is calculated as 1994, its growth rate is 142.9%, with a difference of about 85%. The existence of such a big gap shows that nominal GNP obviously cannot reflect the real situation of economic development.
Another important concept about gross national product is per capita gross national product. This is an average index, which is equal to the gross national product of a certain year divided by the population of that year. Per capita GNP reflects the different emphases of economic operation from GNP. The latter mainly shows a country's economic strength and market size, while the former helps to understand the wealth and living standards of a country's people.
Therefore, taking GNP per capita as a supplement can better understand the national economic situation in a certain period.
After basically understanding and mastering the data of the above-mentioned main comprehensive indicators of the national economy, investors can roughly understand the basic situation of the current national economic situation by analyzing its level, growth rate, departmental composition and regional differences. For example, according to the level of economic development and its growth, the distribution of gross national product and national income among various departments and industries, and the state's investment in various periods, we can judge how the current economic environment and economic prosperity will affect investment, laying the most fundamental foundation for choosing investment targets, investment opportunities and solving how to invest.
(2) the characteristics of economic changes. Obviously, the gross national product and other aggregate indicators can only make a rough judgment on the national economic situation. To deeply grasp the inherent law of economic operation, we must also analyze the characteristics of economic operation changes. Compared with the analysis of gross national product and other gross indicators, the analysis of the characteristics of economic operation changes focuses more on the study of the quality of economic operation, which mainly includes the following aspects: first, the historical dynamic comparison of economic growth shows the characteristics of growth fluctuation, that is, the stage characteristics of economic cycle; The second is the dynamic comparison of economic structure, which explains the changing process and trend of economic structure; The third is the dynamic comparison of price changes, which explains the fluctuation of the overall price level and inflation, and explains the characteristics of price changes and their influence on the main aspects of economic operation in connection with economic growth and economic structure development.
① Comparison of historical trends of economic growth. The historical dynamic comparison of economic growth is actually the analysis and judgment of economic cycle. According to western economic theory, the economic growth of market economy countries is cyclical. This periodicity reflects a fluctuation of the country's overall economic activities, and each cycle consists of a large number of economic activities expanding almost simultaneously and the subsequent overall contraction, depression and recovery stages, and this fluctuation appears repeatedly.
Generally speaking, the economic cycle is divided into four stages: the prosperity stage, that is, the expansion or rise stage of economic activities; Recession, that is, the transitional stage from prosperity to depression; Depression, that is, the contraction or downward stage of economic activity; Recovery period, that is, the transitional stage from depression to prosperity. The main basis for judging the stage of the overall economy is the change of a country's investment scale, industrial output, sales volume, capital lending, price level, interest rate, profit rate and employment rate.
The study of economic cycle has experienced two stages, namely, the traditional economic cycle stage and the modern economic cycle stage. Before the Second World War, the economic cycle of western market economy countries showed an absolute level of rise and fall, so the statistics and analysis of economic cycle were basically based on the absolute level of statistical indicators. However, after the Great Depression in 1930s, the absolute level of economic fluctuation rarely appeared in the development of national economy, which led some people to think that the economic cycle of western countries disappeared. But further analysis shows that although the absolute level of economic fluctuation is disappearing, the relative level of economic fluctuation, that is, economic growth, exists. In order to distinguish two different economic cycles, the concepts of traditional economic cycle and modern economic cycle are defined.
The traditional economic cycle, also known as the classical economic cycle, refers to the prosperity, contraction, depression and recovery in the process of national economic activities, which is cyclical in the process of absolute level rise and fall. Modern economic cycle, also known as economic growth cycle, refers to the process of prosperity, recession, depression and recovery in the process of national economic activities, which is measured, reflected and analyzed on the basis of relative level, that is, growth rate index.
In the modern economic cycle, the distinction between the four stages is not obvious, but the difference between the boom stage and the recession stage is quite obvious. Through the dynamic comparison of the above indicators, we can find that both the boom stage and the recession stage have their typical performances: in the boom stage, national economic activities have developed to a relatively high state, all walks of life are thriving, new industries and new enterprises are constantly established, old enterprises are constantly updated and developed, and the scale of investment and production is constantly expanding. At the same time, the overall market demand has also increased greatly, and the sales of goods have soared. With the rapid expansion of industrial and commercial enterprises, the demand for funds is increasing day by day, so the scale of credit tends to expand, the amount of capital borrowing increases and interest rates rise; In addition, while the demand for capital is expanding, the demand for another factor of production-labor is also expanding accordingly, so the number of unemployed people is reduced and the unemployment rate is reduced. The profit of enterprises increases, and the profit rate increases.
In the recession stage, the overall economy contracted, various economic activities began to decline, market demand dropped sharply, products were unsalable, enterprises were forced to reduce investment scale and production scale, and industrial output and sales volume dropped sharply. As a result, the demand for capital and labor decreased correspondingly, capital lending activities contracted and the unemployment rate rose. The profit rate of enterprises has generally declined, and some enterprises have even closed down.
The tidal fluctuation of economic operation has a great influence on investors. For investors, it is very important to identify which stage the overall national economy is in and predict when the economic cycle will turn to the next stage, which is the choice of the investment direction and scale of their own funds. Because different industries are affected by the economic cycle to different degrees, some industries are greatly affected by it. When the cycle is in a boom, they will prosper, and when the cycle turns into a recession, they will also decline. Some industries are less affected by the cycle.
The former generally includes industries that produce luxury goods, decorations or some durable consumer goods, as well as industries with high demand elasticity, such as tourism, because the consumption of these industries mainly depends on income. Consume more when the income is high, and consume less or not when the income is low. Therefore, in the period of economic prosperity, people have a high demand for this industry, and the profit rate of this industry is also high; During the economic recession, demand decreased and industry profits decreased. Investors should choose to invest in these industries in the stage of economic prosperity or the transitional stage from recovery to prosperity in order to share their rich benefits in the prosperous period; During the recession or from prosperity to decline, we should withdraw capital in time and turn to those industries that are less related to the economic cycle. Industries that are less related to the economic cycle mainly include two categories:
One is the growth industry, that is, the industry formed by the application of new technologies or the development of new products. Due to the adoption of new technology, its products have high production efficiency, low production cost, powerful function or wide application, and the price is not necessarily expensive, which is easy to be accepted by ordinary consumers. Moreover, as new things, these industries have more development prospects and strong industry growth ability. Investing in such industries can avoid or reduce the impact of economic fluctuations and share the benefits brought by industry growth.
The second category is mainly some industries that produce people's daily necessities, such as catering, clothing, medicine and public utilities. Their products are the necessities of people's lives, and the demand elasticity is very small. Even if the income is greatly reduced, the demand for such goods cannot be reduced. Therefore, investing in these industries during the economic recession is a safer choice and can bear less risks.
Of course, it is difficult to make high profits by investing in such industries as luxury goods, which are closely related to economic fluctuations in good times. Therefore, how to arrange the investment funds reasonably, choose the best investment portfolio, and get the maximum income while taking as little risks as possible still needs investors to grasp the actual situation and make arrangements according to different situations. Some techniques and skills in this respect will be discussed in later chapters.
② Dynamic comparison of price changes. The overall price level is an important indicator that comprehensively reflects the quality of national economic operation. Under the condition of market economy, the market is a barometer of economic operation. The state of national economy operation, the change of national economic environment and the effect of macro-control are all manifested through market supply and demand and market changes, and the most direct basis for reflecting market supply and demand and market changes is the price of goods and services. Once there is a problem in a certain link of economic operation, it will cause a certain degree of fluctuation in the overall price level. Therefore, for investors, observing the changes in the overall price level provides an important basis for judging the economic situation.
As an important economic variable reflecting the macroeconomic situation, the overall price level can be divided into three types: rising, falling and stable. Judging from the actual changes, the overall price level has an irresistible upward trend for a long time. Therefore, the analysis of price changes cannot but be linked with inflation.
Generally, under the condition that there is no price control and the price is basically regulated by the market, inflation and the rise of the overall price level are synonymous. However, it should be pointed out that a one-off or short-term rise in the overall price level or the rise in individual commodity prices cannot be counted as inflation. Only when the overall price level continues to rise generally can it be counted as inflation.
Because inflation is the continuous rise of the overall price level, the measurement of inflation can be carried out by measuring the increase of the overall price level. Generally speaking, there are three commonly used indicators: retail price index, wholesale price index and gross national product price deflator.
First, the retail price index. The retail price index, also known as the consumer price index or the cost of living index, reflects the price changes that consumers pay for consumer goods. The retail price index is compiled and calculated by a government according to the retail prices of several major domestic consumer goods and the expenses of water, electricity, housing, transportation, medical care and entertainment, and is used to measure the degree of rising or falling living expenses in a certain period of time.
Second, the wholesale price index. The wholesale price index is an index compiled according to the wholesale price of commodities, which reflects the increase or decrease of the wholesale price of commodities in a country.
Third, the gross national product price deflator. The gross national product deflator is the ratio of the gross national product calculated at constant prices in that year to the gross national product calculated at constant prices in the base year. For example, the GNP of China 1994 is 4,500.6 billion yuan at current prices and 2,937.2 billion yuan at constant prices. If the deflator of 1990 is 100, then the deflator of 1994 is 45006f29,372×100 =153.2, which means that 1994.
The above three indicators have their own advantages and disadvantages in measuring inflation. Moreover, due to the different scope of goods and services involved in these three indicators, the calculation caliber is also different, even in the same country at the same time, the inflation degree reflected by various indicators is not the same. Therefore, it is necessary to choose an appropriate index when measuring inflation. Generally speaking, when measuring inflation, the retail price index is the most commonly used.
According to the calculation of the above indicators, inflation can be divided into three types according to different degrees:
The first category is creeping inflation, that is, slow and sustained inflation, and the general price level increase rate does not exceed10%;
The second category is galloping inflation, that is, serious inflation, and the rate of price increase reaches double-digit level;
The third category is called runaway inflation, that is, inflation with astronomical price increases may lead to the collapse of the entire national economy.
Specifically, inflation usually affects the economy in two ways: through the redistribution of income and property, and through changing the output and type of products.
Through the redistribution of income and property, the impact on the economy is manifested in the rise of the price level. On the one hand, the fixed income class, pensioners and creditors will suffer losses because their monetary income does not increase with the price increase, which means that their actual income or actual creditor's rights will decrease accordingly;
On the other hand, most industrial and commercial enterprises, debtors and speculators will benefit from inflation. Enterprises will increase profits because the price of products rises faster than the cost price, debtors will reduce their actual debts because of currency depreciation, and speculators will make profits by speculating in anticipation of inflation. By changing the output of products, economic performance is affected in two ways:
First, as prices continue to rise, production costs rise. If this increase in cost cannot be transferred to consumers by raising product prices, then enterprises will be unwilling to produce and the overall output will decline; In addition, in the case of serious inflation, hoarding products or raw materials is more profitable than investing, which will stimulate enterprise speculation and hinder the development of industrial production.
Second, the prices of different commodities are rising at different rates. Generally speaking, the prices of commodities with the most urgent and largest demand have risen the fastest. For example, the prices of daily necessities tend to rise faster than those of non-necessities As a result, investment mainly flows to those sectors where prices are rising rapidly, but not to those sectors where prices are rising slowly, such as the production sector of daily necessities. Although the cost has increased due to the general increase in prices, it is not easy for investment to flow to these departments because of the slow increase in product prices and the decrease in profits.
It is precisely because inflation has such a great influence on economic operation that investors can't make investments without considering inflation, and they must make a general forecast on the possibility and degree of inflation. This requires investors to know how inflation is generated.
There are three traditional theoretical explanations for the causes of inflation: demand-driven inflation, cost-driven inflation and structural inflation.
The so-called demand-driven inflation means that inflation is the result of excessive demand in economic operation. This theory holds that the rise of general price level is caused by excessive demand, specifically, inflation is caused by the growth rate of money quantity exceeding the growth rate of output, or inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few products.
Cost-driven inflation refers to inflation caused by rising product costs. People who hold this view believe that there is some monopoly power in the economy, which pushes up the production cost, thus pushing up the overall price level and causing inflation. There are two kinds of cost-driven inflation: one is wage-driven inflation, that is, inflation caused by the growth rate of monetary wages exceeding the growth rate of labor productivity; The second is profit-driven inflation, that is, inflation caused by monopoly economic organizations artificially raising prices by setting monopoly prices in pursuit of high profits.
Structural inflation refers to inflation caused by changes in a country's economic structure. In the whole economy, the growth rate of labor productivity is different in different departments, but the growth rate of money and wages is the same. Therefore, when the monetary wages of the departments with higher labor productivity growth rate increase, it will put pressure on the departments with lower labor productivity growth rate to increase wage costs, because although the labor productivity growth rate of these departments is low, the monetary wage growth rates of all departments are consistent, and under the cost-plus pricing rules, this phenomenon will inevitably lead to inflation driven by wage costs in the whole economy. In fact, this theory is a revision and synthesis of the first two theories.
Generally speaking, the initial cause of inflation can be cost-driven or demand-driven, and sometimes it may be other factors. Once inflation starts, cost push and demand pull are mutually causal, and under certain conditions, they may even appear at the same time, and the causal relationship no longer exists. Therefore, when inflation develops to a certain extent, it is not appropriate to use the theory of demand-driven and cost-driven
Shock transmission theory is a new theory to analyze the causes of inflation. According to this theory, shock is a kind of force exerted on the economic system, which can come from inside or outside the economic system; It can be economic power or non-economic power; It can be deterministic or nondeterministic. For example, the price increase of imported products can be regarded as an external shock, and the interest rate increase can be regarded as a policy shock. After the impact, it will have a series of effects on the economic system, which is called conduction. If the price of imported products rises, it will definitely affect the rise of domestic inflation, and the specific way of this influence is a transmission process.
Whether the shock conduction theory can explain the causes of inflation is completely reasonable is still a question that can be discussed. However, the application of this theory does help to explain some problems that cannot be explained by the above three theories, and it is easier to grasp the key points of the problem with this theory in practical analysis.
Both theory and facts prove that when the economic growth rate is too fast, inflation will inevitably occur. It can be seen that there is a causal relationship between economic growth and inflation, and we can regard economic growth as an important influencing factor of inflation. So, where is this causal relationship reflected? Generally speaking, there are the following points: first, inflation is related to the stage of economic growth. If the economic growth is below the potential growth level, the corresponding inflation rate is low, while when the economic growth is at the potential growth level, the inflation rate is high; Second, at different stages of the economic cycle, the same economic growth rate can correspond to different inflation rates. Generally speaking, the inflation rate corresponding to the expansion period is low, and the inflation rate corresponding to the contraction period is high.
According to the above two conclusions, we can see that to correctly grasp the possible development and changes of inflation, we must consider it in combination with the dynamic comparison of economic growth. For example, the current economic growth rate is at a high level. After various analyses, we think that the economic growth in the coming year may show a downward trend, so according to the previous conclusions, the same economic growth rate will correspond to a higher inflation rate during the contraction period; According to the relationship between inflation and economic growth stage, this inflation rate will decrease, because economic growth is falling to the potential growth level.
In addition to economic growth, there are many more important factors, such as political and economic system reform, economic structure transformation, war, balance of payments situation and some unexpected uncertain events. Under certain conditions, these factors may exceed economic growth and become the main factors affecting inflation. For example, if a country's balance of payments has a sustained and large surplus, on the one hand, it means that the supply of goods available in the domestic market is reduced; On the other hand, the foreign exchange from export or foreign capital inflow cannot circulate in the domestic market and needs to be converted into local currency, which forces the government to invest a lot of local currency. For these two reasons, inflation will rise significantly. It can be seen that in order to accurately grasp the development of inflation, we must pay attention to comprehensively observing the impact of various possible shocks on the development of inflation. For investors, it will be very important to judge the generation and transmission of various shocks in time.
③ Dynamic comparison of economic structure changes. Economic structure is the general name of various proportional relations in national economic activities, which mainly includes industrial structure, distribution structure and final demand structure. This paper only introduces the analysis of industrial structure change, because the development and evolution of industrial structure is the center of economic structure change.
Industrial structure refers to the industrial division of labor and cooperation between various departments of the national economy.
Whether the industrial structure is reasonable is of decisive significance for optimizing the allocation of productive forces and production factors, improving the efficiency of economic operation and promoting the sustained, stable and high-speed development of the national economy.
The index to measure the rationality of industrial structure is the rate of change of industrial structure. For countries whose industrial structure has reached a high level, this indicator is not the main indicator to measure the economic situation, but for developing countries like China, the change rate of industrial structure has become the main indicator to measure the economic situation because of the need to upgrade the industrial structure gradually. The concretization of this indicator is the structural change rate of gross domestic product (GDP), that is, the change of the relative proportion of the three industries in GDP. The rate of change of GDP can be calculated by current price or constant price. If it is to reflect the current situation, you can use the current price to calculate the index. If it is to reflect the law of change, it must be calculated at constant prices.
According to the general law of economic development, the proportion of various industries that make up the national economy in the whole GDP structure should be that, on the premise of maintaining absolute growth, the relative proportion of the primary industry (agriculture) in GDP decreases, and the proportion of the secondary industry (industry and construction) and the tertiary industry (circulation service department), especially the tertiary industry, increases, thus promoting the evolution of industrial structure to a higher level and making economic growth more efficient.
(3) Analysis of the impact of policies and measures Under the condition of market economy, the economic operation is mainly regulated by the "invisible hand" of the market, and the rational allocation of resources is realized through price leverage and competition mechanism.
However, the market mechanism is not omnipotent, and it also has its own inherent defects or cannot play its role due to various conditions in economic operation. Therefore, it is necessary for the government, as the "visible hand", to grasp the economic situation from a macro perspective, take certain control measures and give full play to the role of the market mechanism. This macro-control of the government is mainly manifested in various economic policies and measures. Therefore, analyzing the impact of government policies and measures has become an important part of macro-analysis. The specific introduction of this aspect will be carried out in the third section of this chapter.
(4) Analysis of Economic Operation Problems Economic operation is a huge and complicated system engineering, and its process cannot be smooth sailing, and there will inevitably be such problems. Because these problems will affect the normal operation of the national economy, the government should study these problems in time, formulate effective policies and measures to solve them, and promote the benign operation of the economy; For investors, it is also necessary to analyze this carefully, predict the possible adjustment measures taken by the government, and adjust their investment strategies in time accordingly.
Various problems in economic operation can be mainly divided into the following categories according to their causes:
First, due to changes in natural conditions.