Why do I say that? This is because China is already the largest holder of US Treasury bonds. According to a recent announcement issued by the US Treasury Department, by the end of 2008, the amount of US Treasury bonds held by China had increased from the previous US$ 696.2 billion to the latest US$ 727.4 billion, and it remained the largest holder. At the same time, the data shows that at the end of last year 1 1, the US Treasury bonds held by China have exceeded 700 billion US dollars, amounting to 7 132 billion US dollars. This means that China increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds 142 billion US dollars in February last year. In each month, last year's 10 was the largest net increase in China's holdings of US Treasury bonds, with a monthly increase of US$ 65.9 billion.

In addition, according to the annual initial report on foreign investors' holding of various securities assets in the United States issued by the US Treasury Department, by the end of June 2008, China's holding of securities assets in the United States was 1.205 trillion US dollars, an increase of 283 billion US dollars over the end of June 2007. The above data only include the investment from China, excluding the investment from offshore Chinese-funded institutions and overseas institutions entrusted by China.

At a recent press conference, Fang Shangpu, deputy director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, once said that the data of US Treasury bonds held by China released by the US Treasury Department include not only foreign exchange reserves, but also investments by financial institutions. Due to the further impact of the financial crisis on the United States, the credit rating of US Treasury bonds may be downgraded, and the creditors of US Treasury bonds, including China, will get deeper and deeper.

As one of the largest holders of US Treasury bonds, Bank of China is currently in a dilemma on how to deal with its US Treasury bonds: if the central bank stops buying US Treasury bonds, its original investment will fall into a loss, because the yield of buying US Treasury bonds is only 3%; If you continue to buy, the appreciation of the renminbi will also lead to losses. In addition to the loss of yield, the dollar bonds held by the central bank will also suffer exchange rate losses and spread losses. Although there are multiple risks, the central bank can't stop buying US dollar bonds at present, because this will lead to the depreciation of the US dollar and further loss of China's original investment. This dilemma is caused by the lag of RMB exchange rate reform. Due to the foreign exchange settlement and sale mechanism, the central bank has to hold huge foreign exchange reserves and huge dollar bond assets. Once the dollar deteriorates, "we are the largest family in the world" and the risk is naturally the greatest. According to the data of the central bank, by the end of 2008, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 1.95 trillion US dollars. There are 727.4 billion US Treasury bonds in foreign exchange reserves. Is the ratio too high? Do you need such a large reserve for US dollar foreign exchange? Do officials and experts from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange think this ratio is reasonable? Is it a major mistake in China's foreign exchange management investment? Can it be modified? Perhaps some experts still insist that investing in dollar products is "bargain hunting" at present. Of course, some people think that it is not "bottom-hunting" but "bottom-hunting", which is very helpless. Can China's foreign exchange investment strategy be adjusted? This will be a research topic for financial experts for a long time to come.

In addition, there are great financial and economic risks. America is a country where pragmatism and egoism prevail. With the continuous decline of the US dollar, Americans may take the initiative to create new currencies for external issuance, which will have some impact on American citizens, but the emergence of new currencies will weaken the impact of the depreciation of the US dollar. The promotion and use of the new currency will further strengthen the American people's recognition and global concept, and it will also be a tonic for the American economy and help revitalize the American economy. If this is the case, it will do harm to countries that originally owned US dollars, be dragged down by the depreciation of the US dollar, lead to an economic avalanche, and may also lead to chaos in various countries. At present, many countries in the Middle East and Europe have reduced their holdings of US dollars and US dollar assets, which has reduced the existence and influence of this risk. However, China did not reduce its holdings of US dollars. On the contrary, China is passive in increasing its holdings of US dollars and some financial products of US dollars, but many of them are active. Some officials and some experts advocate increasing their holdings of dollars, and they may be immersed in the dream of dollars. Americans clearly know the amount of dollars held by countries, so they will also control the impact of conversion according to political influence and information channels. These are all controllable areas, and there is no need to worry about conflicts between countries because of this change in the US dollar. Sadly, Americans are using their financial information and policy direction to regulate the direction of the dollar and introduce new coins at the right time. If this happens, China will definitely suffer the most. China's loss lies not only in the fact that the information provided by Americans is not open and it is impossible to know the direction, but also in the fact that it may lead to missed opportunities and no choice but to accept them passively. It is now possible for Americans to do this. That is, if one day the financial crisis deepens to the point where Americans are forced to exchange money, then the problem in China will be more serious than what we see and imagine now.