I think the RMB is not far from collapse.
Many people will say: Even 20 years ago, many people shouted that China's economy was not far from collapse, and in 2008, many people also shouted that RMB collapse was not far away. Why is the RMB still strong? This is not an alarmist. What is this?
The economy is regular, and the prediction of RMB collapse is based on the economic law, the current situation and the current policies of the central government. Every economy has different tolerance for some wrong policies, and even the same economy has different tolerance for wrong policies at different times. Therefore, the fact that there is no crash in the forecast time does not mean that the prospect of RMB is good. The doctor said that the patient's illness is hopeless, and there are only three months left, which does not mean that he will definitely die within three months. It's just that this possibility is already great. At present, RMB is such a patient.
China's GDP is digital prosperity, false prosperity, too long. Just briefly talk about the value of money:
1. Monetary value is related to demand and supply. At present, the symptoms of serious over-exploitation are already obvious, that is, rising prices.
2. Someone will definitely ask: Then why did it appreciate against the US dollar? This is a question of exchange rate. A good exchange rate should correspond to a small trade surplus or deficit between the two countries. However, due to China's many subsidies to exports, China's exports are too strong at the current exchange rate. As the natural attribute of trade is that goods flow from low-priced areas to high-priced areas, it also shows that the overall price of China in international trade is low, which also shows that the RMB is undervalued. Therefore, it violates the proposition that the RMB is undervalued, which the United States has always been wrong. But there is nothing the United States can do, because we subsidize exports and suppress the appreciation of the renminbi. Tianjin Supermarket 200ml Head & Shoulders 24-25 yuan. When I went to an American supermarket in 2009, 200ml of Head & Shoulders was only $2.29. This is an obvious example.
But in the long run, the trade between the two regions should be balanced. At present, the wage level of domestic workers is accelerating, but the domestic productivity level is actually very low. The United States produces a high-end mobile phone 100 USD, and China may need 1500 RMB. Only in the field of mobile phone production, 1 USD = 15 RMB is relatively balanced. This is an example.
So in a word, if China doesn't correct this GDP worship policy, he will come to work again in 20 12 years, and the powerful people who have lost their power will choose to leave. They will definitely exchange dollars and leave the RMB at home, which will inevitably accelerate the collapse of the RMB.
I write so much because there are always netizens asking the above questions. But I don't think it's a big problem to have different views. The problem is to protect your hard-won wealth. I think it's necessary to exchange US dollar deposits now. We ordinary people just want to live a good life.