Because crude oil is the representative of commodity futures, its rise shows that the dollar is depreciating, and the depreciation of the dollar shows economic recovery. Because if the economy is in trouble, a lot of hot money will buy dollars to find a place to live, because the dollar is still the most important safe reserve currency in the world.
Therefore, the above conclusions are pushed back, the fundamentals have improved, the economy has recovered, and US stocks will naturally go up. This is almost inevitable. There is a difference to mention, that is, some people may ask why the performance of listed companies in China is not very good now, and why the stock market has risen so well, which deviates from the support of fundamentals to a great extent. But American stocks are different. It has a short-selling mechanism, that is, if you are pessimistic, you can bearish on the market outlook and short the stock market. If your judgment is right, you will still make money. However, in emerging markets like China, because there is no short-selling mechanism, people are eager to find ways to make money, so they can only keep pushing up the stock market.
Therefore, it is concluded that people's ultimate goal, whether China or the United States, regardless of economic quality, is to pursue interests, leaving only their tools and hands.
Personally, I think the impact of rising agricultural prices on the stock market is far weaker than that of rising crude oil prices. The shares of agricultural products companies will generally rise.
Metals are also commodities, basically the same as crude oil.
However, metal belongs to industrial monosodium glutamate and is one of the essential raw materials for industrial development. Its price increase will increase the production cost of enterprises, thus increasing the burden of enterprises to a certain extent, reducing the product profits of non-metallic companies, and having an impact on the performance of enterprises. So there is a pair of contradictions here, and we need to find a balance point. In fact, the excessive rise in metal prices is not a good thing for the real economy.
The above is my personal opinion.
Supplement: Thanks to the friends of FBIGLB for their opinions.
You take it for granted, but you can see it when you open the K-line chart. From this, we can see that from 0 1 to now, with the gradual depreciation of the US dollar, commodities such as oil denominated in US dollars have stepped out of a long-term bull market, only because of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, oil prices have plunged sharply, and the reason is that the US dollar has strengthened again temporarily at this stage. Looking at the trend of US stocks, it is basically a bull market.
It can be concluded that moderate inflation, that is, appropriate devaluation of the currency, is conducive to economic growth. The economic recovery I said is a special explanation relative to the problem raised by the landlord. It can be revised as appropriate depreciation, and moderate inflation is conducive to economic growth.
Some Americans are not afraid of printing money, and they are not too worried about the depreciation of the US dollar, because the US dollar has already become the world's number one currency, and all kinds of goods are denominated in US dollars. The rise of commodities has increased the burden of economic growth in emerging countries and slowed their economic growth. Take China as an example, we can draw lessons from the United States. Think about the United States, which is the author of the financial industry. This is a financial station and an economic war. So we can draw an almost certain conclusion. As the American economy takes off again, the dollar will continue to depreciate, which will increase the loss of China dollar reserves held by the United States and make China suffer losses. It is also in the national interest of the United States. Because the reason is simple, China is the factory of the world, and rising commodity prices will definitely mean rising product costs for China, because the pricing power of commodities is not in China. In the United States, China's only way out is to reduce profits and export to major developed countries such as the United States. America enjoys the benefits. The devalued tickets were bought with the blood and sweat of people in China and other emerging countries. From this perspective, isn't it beneficial to the growth of the American economy? There is no need to set up a factory in the United States, because cheap products will be continuously shipped to China to meet the life of the American people. What are they doing? High-tech, new energy, financial innovation and information warfare. America is passionate about these things, and they are never interested in "how to do it". They are always interested in "what to do", that is, innovation.
It's a little off topic.
Think about the bull market of US stocks in 2007 and 2008 and the bull market of A shares in 2007. Think about the soaring oil prices in 2007 and 2008, reaching $0/47 per barrel in July 2008. After that, both US stocks and oil prices plummeted. At the same time, they stabilized and rebounded in March 2009. The American economy also shows signs of recovery. As for the dollar, it continues to depreciate now, because the ever-increasing hot money will seek new investment varieties to earn more.