2/kloc-0 Since the beginning of the century, the global economy has been sluggish, and many western countries are facing enormous deflationary pressure. Contrary to the situation in some developed countries, China's economy has maintained rapid growth. The double surplus of international payments and the increasing huge foreign exchange reserves have become the direct reasons to promote the appreciation of RMB. Western countries, led by the United States and Japan, think that China's exporters are robbing the world market at "unfairly low prices", so they want to force the RMB to appreciate, and then turn this economic problem into political censure and put pressure on China. Under the complicated domestic and international economic and political forms, the pressure of RMB appreciation mainly comes from the following reasons:

External cause

First: Japan clamors

On February 2, 2002, Japanese Deputy Finance Minister Haruhiko Kuroda and his deputy Masahiro Hehe published an article in the Financial Times with the signature "Global reflation is timely". On February 22nd, 2002, Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa submitted a proposal to the other six countries at the meeting of the Group of Seven of the OECD, demanding that the RMB be forced to appreciate. This is the first time that the organization has openly discussed economic issues outside its member countries since its establishment. On March 2, 2003, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun published an article saying that "China has exported deflation to Asian countries". The Japanese government believes that China has exported deflation to the whole world, especially to Asian countries, which is the main reason for Japan's demand for RMB appreciation. Due to the rapid growth of China's exports, the decline of domestic prices and the exchange rate system pegged to the US dollar, the supply capacity of cheap goods in the international market has greatly increased, leading to the decline of Japanese domestic prices. At the same time, the lack of total demand in Japan has led to a further decline in prices, which is in danger of deflation. China is exporting deflation to the world, including Japan. The Japanese government believes that China, as the largest emerging market economy country in the world, has the responsibility to contribute to stabilizing the world economy, which is also in its own interests. If the China government cannot strictly restrict exports, then in order to reverse the domestic deflation, it should adopt an expansionary monetary policy or let the RMB appreciate.

Second: American pressure.

Since June 2003, the main external pressure of RMB appreciation has shifted from Japan to the United States. In June and July, 2003, US Treasury Secretary Timothy john snow and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben alan greenspan made public statements, hoping that the RMB would choose a more flexible exchange rate system, believing that the pegged exchange rate system would eventually harm China's economy. Subsequently, the Secretary of Commerce and the Secretary of Labor of the United States also expressed similar views. In addition, some American interest groups, represented by the Steady Dollar Alliance, are most active in demanding RMB appreciation, and American sentiment reached its climax with Si Nuo's visit to China in September, which is also called "exchange rate trip". The main reason why the United States wants the RMB to appreciate is that China's currency manipulation has caused serious manufacturing unemployment in the United States. They believe that China, Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan Province Province of China and other countries and regions deliberately manipulate the exchange rate of their own currencies in order to gain huge export competitive advantages, especially China's RMB is seriously undervalued. It is this phenomenon that leads to the shrinking of American manufacturing industry, the closure of a large number of enterprises and serious unemployment. By June 2003, the unemployment rate in the United States had reached 6.4%, of which 90% unemployment led to manufacturing unemployment. In addition, the trade deficit between the United States and China has also increased significantly in the past few years, and China has accumulated huge foreign exchange reserves, reaching $609.9 billion by the end of 2004. Therefore, China needs to be responsible for the economic downturn and the increase of unemployment in the United States, and the US government must put more pressure on the China government to make the RMB appreciate.

internal cause

First, the real effective exchange rate.

According to IMF's estimation, the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB decreased by 6% compared with other major trading partners in 2002, while according to Hu Zuliu's (2003) calculation, the real effective exchange rate of RMB has decreased by 65,438+065,438+0% from February 2002 when the US dollar depreciated from the highest exchange rate to June 2003. Since China implemented the major exchange rate system reform from 65438 to 0994, according to the calculation results of international organizations, the RMB has been undervalued. From 1980 to 1997, China's GDP grew at an average annual rate of 9.98%. From 1998 to 2004, China's economy maintained a high growth rate of 7% to 9% despite the impact of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, the simultaneous recession of the three major economies of the United States, Japan and Europe and SARS. Whether compared with developed countries or developing countries at the same time, this is ahead. China's steady and rapid economic growth is in sharp contrast to the world economic downturn. This shows that the RMB has a trend of appreciation.

Second: purchasing power parity

The theory of "purchasing power parity" is an important exchange rate determination theory. According to this theory, purchasing power parity (PPP) means that the exchange rate of two currencies in a certain period of time is determined by the number of goods and services that the two currencies can buy in China. In other words, the exchange between local currency and foreign currency is essentially the exchange of purchasing power between local currency and foreign currency, and the long-term equilibrium exchange rate is determined by the comparison of purchasing power between local currency and foreign currency. According to the Human Development Report issued by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), in 2005, the per capita GDP of China was US$ 65,438 +0.352 at nominal exchange rate, but US$ 57,965,438 +0 at purchasing power parity, which means that the nominal exchange rate is 4.06 times lower than the RMB exchange rate at purchasing power parity. Generally speaking, the calculation of purchasing power parity only involves tradable goods, regardless of the differences in the quality of products and services, so it is easy to overestimate the currencies of developing countries. However, even if the value of RMB is not as high as that estimated by UNDP, it will not be as low as the current exchange rate.

Third: balance of payments

"Balance of payments determinism" holds that a country's balance of payments is one of the most direct factors affecting the exchange rate. When a country's balance of payments deficit is large, foreign exchange demand is greater than foreign exchange supply, and the local currency depreciates; On the contrary, it will cause the local currency to appreciate. Judging from the balance of payments, since the RMB exchange rate was merged from 65438 to 0994, China's current account and capital account have maintained a large surplus. Especially in recent years, China has become the largest capital inflow country in the world, with an annual foreign direct investment of about $50 billion. This double surplus of current account and capital account has made China's foreign exchange reserves keep rising in recent years, which has exceeded the reserve level needed to meet normal payments. Therefore, according to the balance of payments, the RMB will also appreciate.

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