Since the beginning of this year, the world economic and financial situation has been complicated and changeable, and the unstable and uncertain factors have obviously increased. The financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis is getting worse and worse, which has rapidly developed from local to global, from developed countries to emerging market countries and developing countries, and from the financial field to the real economy. Under the impact of the international financial crisis, the growth rate of the real economy has fallen sharply. At present, the financial crisis itself has not yet bottomed out, and its impact on the real economy is deepening, and its serious consequences will be further revealed. It is generally expected that the world economy is entering a "severe downturn" period, and the major developed economies are "already or close to recession".
affected by the rapid spread of the international financial crisis and the obvious slowdown of world economic growth, coupled with the unresolved deep-seated contradictions and problems in China's economic life, the difficulties in China's economic operation have increased, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, the business difficulties have increased, and the potential risks in the financial sector have increased. Although China's economic development is facing serious difficulties and challenges from home and abroad, the fundamentals and long-term trends of China's economic development have not changed. In the past 3 years of reform and opening up, China has accumulated a solid material foundation, and its economic strength, comprehensive national strength and ability to resist risks have been significantly enhanced; With the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, there is huge room for development in infrastructure construction, industrial development, household consumption and ecological environment protection, and there is great potential for expanding domestic demand; The socialist market economic system has been continuously improved, forming a better institutional environment; The financial system is generally sound, the fiscal deficit is small, the foreign exchange reserves are sufficient, the domestic savings rate is high, and there is much room for macroeconomic policy adjustment.
(1) The impact of the financial crisis on global tourism consumption
The World Tourism Organization predicts that the global growth rate of overnight visitors will be less than 3% this year due to the financial crisis; The growth rate of global tourism revenue is less than 5.6%. The impact of the crisis on global tourism consumption is as follows:
First, the impact is profound. The obvious slowdown in world economic growth has led to a significant decline in global tourism consumption confidence, which may become the third powerful economic shock wave in the global tourism market after the oil crisis in the early 197s and the world economic crisis in the early 198s.
second, the impact mechanism is special. As we all know, in all kinds of emergencies and external crises, natural and man-made disasters such as SARS, earthquake and 9.11 are external causes, which affect or restrain tourism consumption in a narrow range, with a shallow degree and a short time. Negative impacts often come and go quickly, showing a "big ups and downs" V-shaped trajectory decline. However, this financial crisis affects both supply and demand, which is an internal cause and plays a qualitative role. It will inevitably lead to the shrinking of tourism demand and the stalling of the economic engine that drives the development of tourism, and its negative impact presents a variant U-shaped trajectory of "slow decline and slow rise, low ebb and flow".
thirdly, globalization has made the crisis worse. Globalization, as a double-edged sword, is deepening day by day, which not only strengthens the links between tourism industries of various countries, but also aggravates the fragility of world tourism, intensifies market turmoil and increases the difficulty of coping. Under this macro background, it is unprecedented for the global tourism industry to cope with the world financial crisis, and the uncontrollable and unpredictable factors have increased significantly.
(II) Impact on China's tourism industry
In order to find out the impact of the crisis as soon as possible, in mid-November this year, I led a team to Shanghai, Zhejiang and Beijing for investigation with the theme of "consolidating and expanding the three major markets and properly coping with the impact of the international financial crisis", and listened to the opinions of representatives from 13 competent departments, 28 enterprises and 11 scientific research institutions, and made a survey of the experience, difficulties and work in various places. We have learned two outstanding situations: First, the financial crisis has accelerated the adjustment of the tourism market, and the time for market policy adjustment is ripe and imperative. In particular, domestic tourism should be given a more prominent strategic positioning. Second, the financial crisis has a far-reaching impact, and the entry market bears the brunt. Some travel agencies that focus on entry business are struggling, and the risk of business flow, customer flow and capital flow is increasing, so they have to shrink their fronts. It is expected that the business volume may be greatly reduced next year.
through investigation, we realize: firstly, it is imperative to adjust the market policy. Market policy should keep pace with the times and change with the times, and macro adjustment is urgently needed. Second, tourism will enter a downward cycle. The crisis has spread rapidly, the world economy and China economy have entered the downward channel, residents' confidence in traveling is not high, and the possibility of market slowdown or even decline has increased. Therefore, it is advisable to closely follow up, study countermeasures and prepare for the war for a long time. Third, the crisis has different impacts on different regions, different industries and different markets. The survey found that Shanghai is an export-oriented economy with strong international dependence and sensitivity, and the external crisis spreads quickly, with many channels and deep influence. The industry reports that "the cold winter has arrived". Zhejiang's private economy is developed, and the market is supported by domestic tourists and supported by domestic consumption, which has relatively little impact. Travel agencies, aviation industry and high-star hotels have great difficulties; Inbound tours, long-distance tours and high-end tours have a great impact. Fourth, all localities are full of confidence and adequate measures. At present, confidence is more precious than gold and more important than money. The industries in the three places are full of confidence and adequate measures, indicating that they will fully respond and turn crisis into opportunity. Tourism is a dependent and sensitive industry, and the crisis impact is the normal state. What is important is to strengthen confidence, bring a good team, practice internal strength, hold a group for the winter, and pull a small hand to tide over the difficulties.
through many research work meetings, combined with this survey and the special survey of the overseas offices of the National Tourism Administration, we believe that the impact of the financial crisis on China's tourism industry is mainly as follows:
First, it has an impact on the tourism demand of residents. The financial crisis has brought many uncertain and unstable risks to China's economy, which will be quickly transmitted to residents' consumption behavior, and will be the first to affect the tourism demand. The macro-level lack of vitality, such as the withdrawal of foreign capital, the decrease of exports, the closure of small and medium-sized enterprises, the increase of unemployment and high housing prices, will inevitably lower economic expectations and curb travel confidence. From the perspective of domestic tourism demand, long-distance travel and high-end travel may suffer first, and business travel, incentive travel, golf and conference activities are at risk of falling demand. However, due to the popularity, scale and routinization of domestic tourism, the overall operation of the market is still expected to maintain a large growth throughout the year. It is estimated that the number of domestic tourists and domestic tourism revenue will increase by 6% and 12% respectively in 28. From the perspective of outbound tourism demand, the demand for high-end business and leisure products may decline, and the possibility of decline is not ruled out for long-distance travel across continents; However, considering that overseas travel is still in a period of rapid growth and consumption is more active, the impact of the financial crisis may be relatively limited. It is estimated that the number of outbound tourists will increase by 12% in 28.
second, it has an impact on external tourism demand. The global financial crisis has led to the decrease of per capita disposable income, the external demand for inbound tourism has obviously weakened, and the demand side that drives growth lacks motivation. The main performance is that the input of tourists has entered a downward state, and the overall market situation is low; Inbound tourists, overnight visitors, and foreign exchange income have all fallen back, indicating that the entry market is facing a severe test. The decline of major source countries has expanded, and the two major markets in Korea and Japan have experienced a continuous sharp decline for many months; The long-distance tourists dropped sharply across the board, and the signal of bottoming out was weak. It is estimated that in 28, the number of people entering China, the number of people staying overnight and the foreign exchange income from tourism will decrease by 2%, 3% and 5% respectively.
thirdly, it has an impact on market supply and enterprise operation. With the global wealth shrinking, capital tightening and economic recession, the external environment for China's tourism industry to introduce foreign capital tends to deteriorate. With the decrease of external demand, it is more difficult for tourism enterprises to operate international business. The inbound business of some travel agencies in China is sluggish, and the market expectation is pessimistic. They turn more to the needs of their own residents, operating domestic tours with small profits but quick turnover and outbound tours with large profit margins.
(III) Main ideas for coping with the financial crisis
Although China is affected by the financial crisis, favorable factors and unfavorable factors coexist, and challenges and opportunities coexist. The long-term development trend of China's tourism industry has not changed. The main reasons are as follows: First, the fundamentals of China's economic and social development have not changed, which has provided strong support for the development of tourism economy. Second, the central government's macroeconomic policy of expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption has provided a rare opportunity for the development of tourism. Third, the financial crisis has intensified market adjustment, creating favorable conditions for the transformation and upgrading of tourism and the upgrading of tourism industry quality. Fourth, the domestic tourism market has great potential, which provides a strong market foundation for coping with the crisis. Fifth, the tests of various crises have accumulated valuable experience for the tourism industry to improve its ability to resist risks. As long as we judge the situation, make scientific decisions, make careful arrangements and work hard, give full play to our own advantages, and have the conditions and ability to turn pressure into motivation and challenges into opportunities, minimize the adverse effects of the financial crisis and ensure the steady and rapid growth of the tourism economy. Recently, the Secretary-General of the World Tourism Organization, Frangali, said that China's existing conditions for coping with the crisis are relatively superior, and China will remain the most dynamic and key country in the world tourism pattern in the future. In my opinion, comrades in the national tourism market promotion front should focus on the following tasks:
First, strengthen their confidence and face difficulties. In accordance with the working goal of "maintaining growth, improving the level, increasing vitality and emphasizing people's livelihood" put forward by the Central Economic Work Conference, we should strengthen our confidence, face difficulties, seize business opportunities in the crisis and open up markets in adversity. The more difficult it is, the more we must cheer up, unite as one, play a game of chess all over the country, and work hard to tide over the difficulties. The more difficult it is, the more we should work hard and dare to explore, the more we should establish the sense of social responsibility of the industry and make contributions to the sound and rapid development of the national economy. The more difficult it is, the more we should have a far-sighted strategic vision and a sense of the dilemma ahead of time. The more we should plan for the long-term and make overall plans while solving the timely needs and launching emergency measures.
the second is to grasp the trend and respond flexibly. In view of the impact of the global financial crisis, it is necessary to establish a long-term, strategic, comprehensive and macro working idea, take boosting market confidence as the main direction, keep track of its impact, pay attention to the dynamics in all aspects, timely, scientifically and accurately judge the situation, formulate a targeted market development strategy, and adjust and enrich the work plan as appropriate. When developing the international market, we should focus on neighboring countries and regions, increase publicity and promotion efforts, and innovate publicity and promotion means; Aiming at the long-distance market, the overall image publicity will be carried out to ensure that China will become one of the preferred tourist destinations for long-distance tourists after the crisis.
Third, we should have the overall situation in mind and seize opportunities. It is necessary to think macroscopically and vertically, and tap all available opportunities. First, fully interpret the policy theme, make good use of the country's new policy of expanding domestic demand, and amplify the policy effect. The 4 trillion investment focusing on people's livelihood and infrastructure will stimulate upstream and downstream industries such as regional airports and highways, and improve infrastructure in rural and western regions; The state accelerates the construction of people's livelihood security mechanisms such as housing, old-age care, medical reform and education, which helps to relieve worries and stimulate travel; Rural land reform will give rural tourism a new development opportunity. The second is to grasp the new market opportunities. Be good at keenly sensing and making good use of various opportunities in the crisis to create new advantages. For example, the global crude oil price dropped sharply during the crisis, which led to the downward adjustment of aviation costs, and the corresponding decrease of procurement costs of travel agencies, highlighting the advantages of operating costs.
fourth, we should increase our skills and lay a solid foundation. First, strengthen the industrial strength, improve the supply system and improve the hard skills to deal with the crisis. The second is to explore and improve the monitoring system of tourism economy, and gradually establish market prosperity index, enterprise confidence index, crisis level index and travel tips index. The third is to explore and improve the crisis early warning and index system, gradually establish crisis management funds, policy response mechanisms and international cooperation mechanisms, issue corporate social responsibility guidelines, and establish a crisis response information base.
second, the policy adjustment of developing the three major tourism markets
at present, the policy of developing the three major tourism markets in China is to "vigorously develop inbound tourism, actively develop domestic tourism and standardize the development of outbound tourism". With the development of the situation, its policy stance, policy proposition, policy connotation and policy objectives should keep pace with the times and make corresponding adjustments. To this end, the National Tourism Administration is prepared to restate the policy as "comprehensively developing domestic tourism, actively developing inbound tourism, and promoting outbound tourism in an orderly manner". The new policy highlights people-oriented and people's livelihood priority, and the strategic planning of "meeting internal and external needs and utilizing domestic and international markets".
(1) the law shows that domestic tourism should return to its priority position
"domestic tourism first, then inbound tourism, then outbound tourism", which is not only a common path for all countries, but also conforms to the basic law of tourism globalization. Tourism in all countries generally "comes first at home and then at home" and follows the development path of "developing domestic tourism first, then developing inbound tourism and outbound tourism in turn", which has a clear logical track. Take the lead in developing domestic tourism, give priority to meeting national demand, and reflect the industrial concern of "national priority" and the initial motivation of "national interest priority"; Improve the level of tourism development and cultivate the tourism awareness of the whole people. With the help of existing tourist facilities and environment, inbound tourism has followed its footsteps and entered the development track. With the improvement of national tourism fashion and economic level, the demand for outbound tourism is gradually released.
(2) The dependence on foreign exchange earned by inbound tourism is gradually weakening
First, the foreign exchange earning function is greatly weakened. Over the past 3 years, China's foreign exchange income from inbound tourism has increased by nearly 2% annually, far below the average annual growth level of 35% of the national foreign exchange reserves. In the total foreign exchange reserves of the country, the proportion of tourism foreign exchange has fallen sharply. In the early days of reform and opening up, the proportion exceeded 3%, and even reached 74% in 1986; However, it gradually declined since the 199s, and only remained at about 1% in the late 199s. In 27, it has dropped to a historical low of 2.7%. The huge contrast between 3% and less than 3% shows that the strategic significance of the function of inbound tourism to earn foreign exchange no longer exists.
Second, its position in the service trade pattern has declined. Before the mid-term reform and opening up, inbound tourism has always been a heavyweight balancer to maintain the balance of international trade. With the expansion of the scope and variety of international trade, the proportion of foreign exchange earned by it has decreased by 2 percentage points. Before 22, the foreign exchange income from tourism accounted for more than 5% of the total income from service trade. Since 23, the proportion has dropped sharply year by year, maintaining at about 35%; In 27, it fell to an all-time low of 3%.
(3) National conditions and national policies highlight the importance of domestic tourism
First, China has entered the era of people's livelihood, and tourism should become a livelihood industry. People's livelihood is the biggest politics in China at present, and it is the foundation of the ruling idea. Satisfying the overwhelming majority of people's tourism wishes and safeguarding the overwhelming majority of people's tourism rights and interests are the foundation of career and development. We should pay more attention to the voice, needs and wishes of the people reflected in the process of tourism, meet the needs of tourists, solve their urgent needs and exclude their difficulties, and effectively meet and protect the tourism needs of the people. Therefore, we should comprehensively develop domestic tourism and put it in a more prominent and important position.
second, China has entered the era of domestic demand, and tourism should become a power industry. With the increasingly obvious impact of the international financial crisis on China's economic development, it can be predicted that "expanding domestic demand" will become the main theme of China's economic development for a long time to come. Therefore, while actively developing inbound tourism and ensuring that the external demand of inbound tourism does not appear major problems, we should pay more attention to the internal demand of domestic tourism, identify, meet, upgrade and expand the internal demand, comprehensively develop domestic tourism, expand scale, speed, grade, adjust structure and promote efficiency.
(IV) Macro positioning of the three major tourism markets
The overall goal is,