Thirty years of ups and downs. Reform and opening up have closely linked the Chinese economy with the global market. Looking around, China is the biggest beneficiary of economic globalization, and China has entered a stage of real interaction with the world. Along with this, fluctuations and reversals in global markets will inevitably have a huge impact on China. This is manifested in the fact that my country's actual economic variables (import and export volume, total investment, monetary aggregate, gross domestic product, employment level, etc.) and nominal economic variables (inflation, asset prices, currency exchange rates, etc.) are affected by the global market and even Decide. So far, China has suffered two relatively large external shocks. The first was the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, and the second is the current global financial crisis. The Asian financial crisis occurred on the fringes of the world market and dealt a severe blow to Southeast Asia's export-oriented economies. Because my country's capital market has not yet opened up, foreign direct investment slowed down during the crisis, and my country's GDP growth rate decreased. However, import and export remained in surplus, and foreign exchange reserves increased; to a certain extent, the decline in Southeast Asian exports was replaced by my country. Although this is the first major external shock to my country's economy, the economic fundamentals have not been damaged and the impact on society is not significant. At that time, my country's employment pressure mainly came from within, that is, the layoff of urban workers caused by the transformation of state-owned enterprises. In 1998, our country implemented a proactive fiscal policy, through the issuance of additional government bonds/financial bonds, for investment in infrastructure and public construction projects. This has led to large-scale improvements in our country's infrastructure. However, the industrial correlation of the investment industry is small, and its expansion cannot quickly drive overall economic development. Moreover, the construction of infrastructure projects does not have an obvious role in stimulating private investment and public consumption demand. In recent years, my country's rapid economic growth has mainly benefited from the substantial expansion of foreign trade. In the national income, the proportion of net exports is more than 20%, while the ratio of total import and export to GDP is between 60-70%, which is among the highest among major economies. This over-reliance on overseas markets shows that the reversal of the world economic situation will inevitably have a huge negative impact on our country's economy and society. The most devastating effect of the economic crisis is the sharp increase in the number of unemployed people and the substantial decline in people's welfare levels. Different from the Asian financial crisis, this crisis has a great impact on our society, especially the three major economic entities - migrant workers, small and medium-sized private enterprises, and individual industrial and commercial households. This crisis occurred in the center of the world market. The economic recession in developed countries has affected China's export-oriented processing manufacturing industry through the effects of international trade. Since the beginning of 2008, my country's international trade has begun to decline significantly compared with the same period last year. This has a huge impact on employment in our country, especially the employment of migrant workers. Due to factory closures or work stoppages, millions of migrant workers returned home early. However, the serious employment problem of migrant workers will emerge after the Spring Festival this year. my country's 140 million migrant workers have become the "main force" of industrial workers. In the secondary industry, migrant workers account for 58% of all employees, including 68% in the processing and manufacturing industry and nearly 80% in the construction industry; in the wholesale, retail, and catering industries in the tertiary industry, migrant workers Accounting for more than 52%. In order to verify the impact of the economic recession in the world market center on my country's exports, we conducted an empirical test on the causal relationship between China's exports and US GDP and EU GDP from 1997 to 2007. The results show that US GDP has a significant positive impact on China's exports; there is an insignificant positive relationship between EU GDP and China's exports. This shows that the impact of the US economy on China's exports is much greater than that of the EU economies. Our empirical analysis further illustrates: if the US GDP growth rate increases (decreases) by 1%, China's exports will increase (decrease) by 6.23%. It can be inferred from this: If the US GDP decreases by 2% to 3% in 2009, China's exports will decrease by 12% to 18%. Assuming that the ratio of hired workers to export production (L/Q) remains unchanged, the demand for hired workers will decrease by the same proportion, and the demand for migrant workers will drop by 5 to 8 million. In addition, empirical analysis also shows that the elasticity coefficient of the impact of foreign direct investment on my country's exports is between 0.6-0.9. If foreign direct investment drops by 10-20% and two-thirds of its products are exported, my country's exports will drop by 6-15%. The resulting unemployment of migrant workers will be around 3-7 million. The above empirical analysis only takes into account the decline in US GDP and foreign direct investment, and the impact on the employment of migrant workers will reach 8-15 million people. If the dual effects of all international trade multipliers and international capital multipliers are taken into account, the impact of the total unemployment of migrant workers in the manufacturing industry may reach 20-25 million, which is 40-50% of the number of migrant workers employed in the manufacturing industry, accounting for 10% of the total number of migrant workers employed in the manufacturing industry. 14~17% of the total. While our country's manufacturing industry is taking a hit, the construction industry is also in a state of depression. In the past ten years, the completed real estate area across the country has reached 4 billion square meters, and the total investment has exceeded 10 trillion yuan. In the next few years, the real estate market will mainly digest existing assets and will be in a downturn. A 30-40% reduction in jobs in the construction industry means that tens of millions of migrant workers will lose their job opportunities.

Since my country's manufacturing industry absorbs one-third of migrant workers' employment, and the construction industry absorbs 20% of migrant workers, the stagnation of these two industries will make the employment situation even more severe. The number of migrant workers who have lost their urban jobs this year may reach 4,000- 50 million people, or even higher. The consequences of massive unemployment among migrant workers are very serious. Wage income has become the main source of income for rural residents in my country. The income from working is several times that from farming. A considerable number of migrant workers’ contracted land has been expropriated as non-agricultural land or rented by commercial companies, and they have no land after returning to their hometowns. Can be planted; Unemployment has a great psychological impact on migrant workers. Migrant workers have broadened their horizons, have strong organizational skills, and have different future expectations; any improper handling of this will cause a huge backlash to society. Therefore, the massive unemployment of migrant workers implies serious political and social problems. If it is not done properly, it may cause social unrest. In addition, there are more than 9 million small and medium-sized enterprises of various types in my country, most of which are concentrated in the manufacturing field. These businesses not only provide tax revenue, but more importantly create a large number of jobs. The stalling of international trade has led to market shrinkage, credit defaults, and lack of liquidity, putting a considerable number of such companies facing survival crises. There are still nearly 30 million individual industrial and commercial households in our country, mainly concentrated in the retail field and low-end service industry. These economic units are hit much harder than other social groups when the external environment reverses. In November 2008, the central government promptly adjusted its macroeconomic policies and changed its policy goal from suppressing inflation to maintaining economic growth. Among the government expenditures to expand domestic demand this time, people's livelihood expenditures and environmental protection accounted for 26%. This is the most significant difference compared with fiscal expenditures during the Asian financial crisis. Local governments have also successively proposed an investment plan of 18 trillion yuan centered on infrastructure. These expenditures will play a certain role in preventing the decline in GDP growth, but their impact on employment may not be obvious. GDP growth and employment growth do not necessarily have a one-to-one relationship. Since fiscal expenditures are mainly used for capital-intensive infrastructure construction, the creation of jobs is limited. At present, local governments have introduced some relevant policies and methods to address the unemployment problem of migrant workers, but the overall public policy has not yet been clear. Moreover, existing public policies have not yet included helping small businesses and individual industrial and commercial households below designated size to overcome difficulties as a central vision. Overall, the massive unemployment of migrant workers caused by the global economic recession is inevitable. Solving this problem depends not only on our country's efforts, but also on the recovery of the world economy. If the global economy can fully recover in 2010, my country's export-oriented manufacturing industry is also expected to recover relatively quickly, providing tens of millions of jobs again after experiencing relatively short economic cycle fluctuations. However, if the U.S. economy becomes Japanese or the world economy falls into a new period of stagflation, the reemployment of my country's migrant workers will be difficult to alleviate in the short term. This will be a long-term problem facing our country's economy and society, and we must make longer-term preparations. In the latter two cases, creating jobs for migrant workers will depend on the extent and process of our country's true transformation into an economy that balances internal and external demands.