1. 1 is conducive to the internationalization of RMB and the improvement of the international status of China's economy.
From the domestic and international point of view, the rise and fall of a country's currency is closely related to the rise and fall of its comprehensive country. Under the trend of long-term appreciation of RMB, trust in RMB and China's economy at home and abroad will increase day by day. As a result, RMB, as a strong currency, will further expand its circulation in neighboring countries and even the world, and finally realize internationalization and become an international currency. Therefore, the appreciation of the people is a signal of China's comprehensive economic strength and good economic situation, which is conducive to enhancing the confidence of domestic and foreign investors, changing their expectations of government actions and economic activities, making investors willing to invest, and making it easier and cheaper for China to refinance abroad.
1.2 RMB appreciation is beneficial to China's imports.
The appreciation of RMB has greatly improved China's terms of trade. With the aggravation of trade surplus, China's terms of trade were once in a deteriorating situation. According to the survey of the Ministry of Commerce, the ratio of the price of imported goods to the price of exported goods is increasing, which shows that China's national welfare is losing outward, and more imported goods are needed in exchange for the same amount of exported goods. In recent years, the dollar prices of most primary products and finished products in China have risen to varying degrees, and the rapid economic development in China has also led to a further increase in the demand for imports. The appreciation of RMB will lower the prices of imported products, especially raw materials and advanced equipment, thus reducing the costs of manufacturers who rely on raw materials, and helping enterprises to further introduce new technologies, improve production efficiency and upgrade products. At the same time, because most of the imported goods are used for re-export, with the improvement of the production efficiency of enterprises, the quality of export products has been improved, which will help China enterprises to extend to the high end, improve the terms of trade, and help China to make better use of world resources, improve its international competitiveness and increase its national welfare. According to customs data, from May to July this year, the RMB exchange rate appreciated from 682.80 to 677.50, and China's import volume also showed a synchronous upward trend, rising from1122168 billion US dollars (see Annex for statistics). However, it should be emphasized that there are many aspects that determine imports, and the status and role of exchange rate variables cannot be overemphasized.
1.3 RMB appreciation to optimize China's foreign trade commodity structure.
At present, there are unreasonable structures in China's trade structure. Most enterprises are in labor-intensive enterprise mode, with less high-tech content, short processing flow and small value-added space. However, the equipment and commodities that truly reflect the level of science and technology must be imported from abroad, which leads to the fact that most of the processing income of China production enterprises belongs to foreign countries. Through the appreciation of RMB exchange rate, enterprises with low technology content and relatively poor management system can be effectively reduced and developed in the general direction in line with China's industrial structure. Because the appreciation of RMB will cause more fierce competition in China, at the same time, it can reduce the vicious competition of foreign inefficient enterprises, and also accelerate the pace of enterprises going abroad. It is not difficult to find that the international brands of Germany, Japan and other big countries have grown up in the process of appreciation of their own currencies. It can be seen that the appreciation of domestic currency can make domestic enterprises innovate constantly under the pressure of survival of the fittest and realize the significance of sustainable development.
2 negative effects
2. 1 Restrain China's export.
After the appreciation of RMB, it will have a certain inhibitory effect on China's exports. On the one hand, the cost of China's export enterprises will increase accordingly; On the other hand, commodity prices in China expressed in foreign currencies will rise. Under the joint action of two factors, the price of China's export commodities will inevitably rise, thus weakening the international competitiveness of export commodities; However, due to the rising price of domestic commodities, the domestic consumption of foreign imported commodities will also increase, while the domestic consumption of domestic commodities will decrease, which will do great harm to the domestic market dominated by labor-intensive commodities. At the same time, experts stressed that the exchange rate has a very important impact on China's exports, but there are many variables that affect and determine exports, and each variable has a different status in different periods and different environments. Therefore, it should be noted that the impact of exchange rate on China's exports cannot be overestimated.
2.2 Restrain foreign direct investment
After the appreciation of RMB, it is not conducive to attracting foreign investment, especially foreign direct investment will be restrained. Under the background of RMB appreciation, foreign investors' investment costs in China, such as building factories in China, purchasing equipment and labor, need to be paid in RMB, and the appreciation of RMB will undoubtedly increase their costs. Secondly, a considerable part of all kinds of products and services of foreign-invested enterprises in China are oriented to the international market, and the appreciation of RMB has also discounted the competitiveness of these products in overseas markets.
2.3 Increase domestic employment pressure
At present, the quantity and quality of effective labor force in China are increasing rapidly, but the speed of economic growth is not enough to offset this pressure. If the RMB appreciates, the economic growth will be slower, the labor market will be more competitive because of oversupply, and wages will not rise, which is not conducive to alleviating the employment pressure in China. It is particularly noteworthy that China's import and export enterprises have made great contributions to alleviating the domestic employment pressure, but the appreciation of RMB will affect the operating conditions of these enterprises and will inevitably have an impact on the current employment environment. In addition, the rise of RMB exchange rate will also lead to the price increase of non-tradable goods (such as land, labor and other production factors) in China, thus weakening domestic demand and having a serious negative impact on the job market.
2.4 the impact of the central bank's monetary policy adjustment
Due to the pressure of RMB appreciation, in order to keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable, the central bank has to put a lot of base currency in the foreign exchange market to buy foreign exchange. Putting too much base money into the market is obviously contrary to the central bank's policy goal of continuously raising deposit reserve and deposit and loan interest rates to control inflation, thus affecting the regulatory role of the central bank's monetary policy.
2.5 The scale of foreign debt has been further expanded.
Because after the appreciation of RMB, foreign capital will enter China's capital market in large quantities due to the expectation that RMB will continue to appreciate, and China's foreign debt scale will increase accordingly.
In addition, the appreciation of RMB will bring greater deflationary pressure to China and increase the fiscal deficit.
4. Put forward countermeasures and suggestions for the impact of RMB exchange rate appreciation.
At present, the pressure of RMB appreciation has become the focus of attention. From the perspective of long-term economic development, China must take appropriate measures at the right time, which has become an indispensable process for the healthy and stable development of China's economy. In view of the impact of RMB appreciation on China's economic development in the above aspects, many domestic scholars put forward some countermeasures and suggestions for reference, which are mainly summarized as the following aspects.
4. 1 change the traditional concept of foreign trade
Influenced by traditional ideas, China's foreign trade tends to pursue trade surplus unilaterally and earn foreign exchange through export. In order to resolve the international pressure of RMB appreciation, we should fundamentally change this concept, from emphasizing trade surplus to trade balance. In fact, the goal of modern international trade is not to pursue the quantity or amount of exports, but to maximize profits. Judging from the evolution of world economic development, the economic prosperity of developed countries is largely based on the cheap exports of developing countries. In other words, deficit countries are only world powers, and only big countries and powerful countries can import in large quantities. At present, China is still in a weak historical stage, so we need to get through this historical stage as soon as possible, achieve trade balance, and try our best to obtain external resources through imports.
4.2 Appropriately increase the import of commodities and upgrade the export product structure.
At present, the finished products exported by China are mostly labor-intensive products with limited technical content and extremely low profit rate. Therefore, to alleviate the pressure of RMB appreciation, we should increase support for imports, increase the import of important raw materials and energy, and increase the import of technical equipment, especially high and new technology, which is not only conducive to enhancing comprehensive national strength, but also to improving industrial structure and promoting the upgrading of export commodity structure. In upgrading the structure of export products, we should first improve the technical content of export products, change the structure of import and export products, eliminate a number of enterprises with low technical content and low grade, improve the technical content and added value of export products, and strive to increase the proportion of manufactured goods in export products; Vigorously developing high-tech industries is the guarantee to improve the technical content of products and promote the upgrading of product structure, thus promoting the transformation of economy from export-oriented to domestic demand and from extensive to intensive.
4.3 Adjust the exchange rate level and exchange rate system in a timely manner.
From the international experience, because economic powers are inevitably faced with the internal and external pressure of exchange rate appreciation during the period of rapid economic growth, and RMB appreciation is the general trend, it is extremely important to avoid large exchange rate adjustment in the future RMB appreciation process. Therefore, in order to make the exchange rate always reflect the economic fundamentals, under the background of globalization, the RMB exchange rate should be properly adjusted in the future, so that the exchange rate level can not only truly reflect China's economic situation, but also avoid the negative impact brought by the rapid appreciation of the RMB in the future. This requires the government to take decisive measures.
4.4 Appropriate adjustment of tax policies
After the Southeast Asian financial crisis, China's trade surplus benefited from the export tax rebate policy. Therefore, the pressure of RMB appreciation can be alleviated by reforming the export tax rebate policy. This policy adjustment will restrict China's foreign trade, especially exports, to a certain extent. It is an emergency measure to alleviate the pressure of RMB exchange rate appreciation, but it is only effective in the short term and can only be an expedient measure. In addition, the state should levy an export surcharge on some natural resource export industries, especially resources that may be in short supply in China in the future, such as coal and some minerals, so as to make the comprehensive export cost of these products equal to that of similar international products, avoid other countries from imposing punitive tariffs on the pretext of dumping, and protect China's limited precious resources.
4.5 Other countermeasures to reduce the negative impact of RMB appreciation
Under the situation that the economy is basically facing the pressure of continuous appreciation, a small appreciation of the renminbi may form an increasing expectation of appreciation, so it is necessary to take supporting reforms to stabilize the appreciation of the renminbi. In view of the downward pressure of RMB appreciation on the price level and the negative impact on the total demand, it can be solved by developing the western region and expanding domestic demand. In view of the reserve risk brought by RMB appreciation, we should deeply study the changing trend of major currencies in the world in the future, and adjust the currency structure and total scale of China's foreign exchange reserves in a timely manner according to China's import scale. In view of the impact of RMB appreciation on the real estate market, we can vigorously develop diversified financial markets and increase investment and financing channels. In addition, we should further deepen the reform, optimize the allocation of market resources, vigorously develop the service industry, and create conditions for increasing employment.