1. Proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy can't be explained by "one loosening and one tightening". There are usually three options for fiscal and monetary policy coordination, namely "double tightness", "double looseness" and "one looseness and one tightness". The choice of "double tight" fiscal and monetary policies generally occurs when the total social demand is greater than the total supply, prices rise and inflation. The choice of "double-loose" fiscal and monetary policies generally occurs when the total social supply exceeds the total demand, the economy is depressed and prices are falling. There are two situations in the "one loose and one tight" cooperation model: first, the fiscal policy is tight and the monetary policy is loose. The choice of this mode usually occurs when the social and economic operation is relatively stable, the economic restructuring has achieved results, and there is no danger of inflation; Second, the monetary policy is tight and the fiscal policy is loose. The choice of this mode usually occurs when the social and economic operation is stagflation. In the process of China's economic development, we have repeatedly chosen "double loose" fiscal and monetary policies, such as 1953 ~ 1956, 1958 ~ 1960,/kloc. I have also chosen "double tight" fiscal and monetary policies, such as 1950, 196 1 ~ 1963, 1985 ~ 1986 and1. , the result is suppressed. A comprehensive observation of social and economic development in history can lead to a theoretical model: when the growth rate of total demand exceeds the growth rate of total supply, economic growth and inflation choose "double tight" fiscal and monetary policies; When the decline rate of total demand exceeds the decline rate of total supply, the economy is depressed and deflation occurs, so the fiscal and monetary policy of "double easing" is chosen; When the decline rate of total supply exceeds the decline rate of total demand, the economy stagflation, choose the fiscal and monetary policy of "loose finance and tight currency"; When the growth rate of total supply exceeds the growth rate of total demand, economic growth and deflation, the fiscal and monetary policy of "loosening money and tightening finance" is chosen.
In recent years, the China government has chosen a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, which is difficult to explain according to the above theoretical model. Because there are some special circumstances in the reform and development of China's social and economic life: the state-owned economy is the main body of the national economy, but the losses are serious, and it is imperative to turn losses around; Private economy actually supports the economic development of some areas, but the policy support is not clear and in place; Infrastructure construction has been greatly improved, but it has not fully played its role and the rate of return is low; The economic structure has been adjusted, but it still cannot keep up with the development of science and technology and the demand of the market; Generally speaking, the people's economic life has reached a well-off level, but the income gap is very large, the countryside is not rich, and the income level of farmers is not high. This situation shows that China's economic growth in recent years is accompanied by deflation, which can be described as "growth deflation", which is rare in the history of economic development. How to explain this situation in economics needs to be studied In our view, this is the lack of guidance of the market economy and the concentrated embodiment of the government-led economy. Therefore, a proactive fiscal policy is actually to expand fiscal expenditure and increase government investment, while a prudent monetary policy is to play a coordinating role with fiscal policy, while curbing deflation, it also pays attention to preventing inflation. Generally speaking, China's fiscal and monetary policies have been loose in recent years. The current situation is: although the three major demands of export, investment and consumption have rebounded in an all-round way, the intensity of domestic demand is still insufficient; Government investment has increased substantially, but private investment needs to be further started; The economy has maintained a high growth rate, but the situation of oversupply and product backlog has not changed. Therefore, the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy is mainly to ensure the implementation and implementation of government actions from financial resources in order to change and improve this situation.
Second, whether to strengthen the role of fiscal policy or monetary policy should consider three factors: demonstration, risk prevention and tolerance. Theoretically speaking, strengthening the role of fiscal policy can play a more exemplary role, but financial investment weakens the credit relationship and is not conducive to preventing risks. Expansionary fiscal policy is likely to bring risks: blind investment and repeated construction may produce bad investment benefits. Finance can hand over the raised funds to local governments and relevant departments, and governments at all levels and relevant departments can also use the money according to their own plans and decisions, but who can guarantee that the investment can be recovered? If the investment is not recovered, it will cause losses, and whether this loss can be made up depends mainly on the financial affordability. Investigating the problem of financial affordability mainly lies in mastering the "degree". In recent years, an American scholar wrote to Premier Zhu, saying, "At present, the proportion of China's national debt to GDP is too low, and there is still a lot of room. At the end of 1997, the balance of China's national debt was 540 billion yuan, accounting for 6.8% of GDP. Western developed countries account for more than 50%. " This opinion was adopted by the leaders of relevant departments in China, and a large number of government bonds were issued for three consecutive years. We think such a simple analogy is impossible. Simple analogy is not necessarily reasonable and unscientific. As far as the issuance and operation of national debt are concerned, there are at least the following differences between China and western countries: (1) National debt is ultimately repaid by taxpayers. Therefore, the taxpayer's repayment ability must be based on the proportion of tax revenue to GDP, not on the proportion of national debt to GDP. Take the United States as an example. In the 1990s, the average proportion of tax revenue to GDP was about 18%, while in China, the proportion of tax revenue to GDP was about 198. This shows that the taxpayer's repayment ability is far from that of the United States. (2) A considerable part of US Treasury bonds are purchased by foreign institutions and individuals. For example, China bought a considerable amount of US Treasury bonds with foreign exchange. In this case, the affordability of national debt is not only for domestic legal persons and residents, but also for foreign legal persons and residents. However, China's national debt is not issued to the outside world, and most of it is borne by domestic legal persons and residents. (3) As the US dollar is an international currency, the national debt issued by the United States can be repaid by increasing the supply of US dollars, while China's RMB is not an international currency, so there is no condition to repay it by printing money. (4) Under the condition of developed capital market, national debt, as a financial commodity, can be traded and circulated, but it is not easy to circulate in China at this stage. Whether it can be circulated or not, the debt service burden of national debt varies greatly. It can be circulated, and the debt service burden of national debt can be transferred and digested in the market.
These four differences show that it is necessary to study scientifically, rather than simply comparing figures, and to examine the different operating mechanisms of the same thing. It is very realistic to examine the financial affordability, besides the proportion of national debt balance to GDP, there are two indicators, namely debt dependence and debt repayment rate. They show the solvency of the national debt and its relationship with the fiscal revenue and expenditure of that year, and we must not take it lightly. Maybe, borrowing new debts to pay off old debts will be borne by future generations. Since 1998, China has issued 360 billion long-term treasury bonds. By the end of 2000, the balance of national debt was about 1 trillion, accounting for 12% of GDP. This naturally increases the dependence on national debt and expands the proportion of debt service. Therefore, it must be noted that although China's current national debt balance accounts for a low proportion of GDP, the national debt issued in that year accounted for 27% of the fiscal expenditure in that year, much higher than that in western countries. The current national debt is issued by the central government. It will be unbearable if the issued national debt is repaid with the central fiscal revenue. The problem now lies not only in who will repay it and how strong its repayment ability is, but also in the fact that the national debt was bought by the national bank and the bank's money was used for finance, thus expanding the comprehensive fiscal deficit. We discuss the issue in this way to show that whether to strengthen the role of fiscal policy or monetary policy depends on the choice of the government. In the choice, we should weigh the above three aspects. From the perspective of enhancing risk prevention, we should choose enhanced goods.
The role of monetary policy; From the perspective of demonstration and driving role, we should choose to strengthen the role of fiscal policy. As for affordability, in the case of "one boss, two wallets", it seems difficult to find the difference. But in theory, the choice of monetary policy can win a longer time and a wider space, and increase tolerance through the conversion of creditor's rights and debts, while the choice of fiscal policy is more restricted.
Third, the effects of fiscal policy and monetary policy are different.
The effect of fiscal policy can be investigated from many aspects, from whether to stimulate the economy, mainly to investigate the "crowding out effect"; The effect of monetary policy can also be examined from many aspects. Generally speaking, it mainly focuses on the tolerance of the central bank and the comprehensive fiscal deficit.
In recent years, while implementing a proactive fiscal policy, China has increased the money supply. However, to some extent, it has also produced a "crowding out effect", which is manifested in the fact that the investment enthusiasm of private entrepreneurs has not been mobilized. No matter in academic circles or practical departments, most people have reached a * * * understanding, that is, to make fiscal policy work, financial investment must mobilize the enthusiasm of private entrepreneurs. However, the reality is that such enthusiasm has not been mobilized, or it has not been fully mobilized. The reason is that private entrepreneurs can't see the prospect of economic development clearly and are not sure about the government's policies. Some people even think that expansionary fiscal policy is the last resort for the government to maintain its speed. Under the control of this concept, the government is active, and the people are not; Worry above, wait and see below; The authorities shouted loudly, but the people were indifferent. Therefore, the introduction of easing policy is contrary to the original intention. Academics and practical departments have been discussing whether the issuance of 654.38+000 billion national debt and the increase of financial input will produce "crowding out effect". Some media organizations hold that "there is no crowding out effect", and think that the national bank can issue 654.38+000 billion treasury bonds, which can be transferred after purchase, and can be lent to the central bank as collateral, so that commercial banks can increase 654.38+000 billion credit sources and increase loans. In fact, this argument is a bit "bull's head is not right." Crowding-out effect refers to whether it will dampen the enthusiasm of private investment and reduce private investment, not whether it will reduce national bank loans. The financial money belongs to the state, and the money control of the national bank is still owned by the state. In this case, even if the government takes more and the national bank takes less, there is no "crowding out effect". The problem now is that the government has taken more money and the national bank has not taken less. It is absurd to say that there is no crowding out effect, because it is not crowding out effect, but "supporting effect". This "matching effect" has its positive effect, but we should see its negative effect, which lies in that people regard the matching funds of banks as a supplement to the lack of financial investment. Since it is insufficient to supplement, it has the nature of quasi-financial investment. In some people's minds, financial investment has the nature of "free relief". If the bank's matching loans and financial investment are treated equally, the matching funds are also quasi-free. As a result, it is hard to say whether and when the funds and financial inputs provided by banks can be recovered. This should be regarded as a new bank loan risk.
Whether monetary policy has an effect can be investigated from the aspects of target fund composition, leverage mechanism, time limit and space limit of the effect. This kind of investigation adopts the method of "individual" analysis and focuses on the structural level. If the "holistic" analysis method is adopted, the tolerance of the central bank and the comprehensive fiscal deficit will eventually be examined. Generally speaking, the central bank's duty is to stabilize the currency, and whether the currency is stable or not is usually to observe whether there is inflation, so it can be said that the tolerance of the central bank is also the public's tolerance for inflation.
The factors that affect the public's tolerance for open inflation are: (1) the growth degree of nominal income. Under the condition of inflation, giving the public more monetary income to make up for the expenditure can enhance the public's tolerance for open inflation. (2) the degree of interest income. Under the condition of inflation, if individuals or families choose more financial assets to make profits, it will help to enhance their ability to resist inflation. (3) The correlation degree of asset price rise. Under the condition that the rising price of consumer goods leads to inflation, the prices of other commodities and resources can be in three States, that is, they either rise synchronously, fall or rise more. In this way, the important factors that affect the public's tolerance for inflation depend on the asset structure held by the public and the behavior choice of assets. If the price of the assets held tends to rise, the behavior choice is to sell, which will gain more benefits and enhance endurance; If the price of the assets held tends to fall, the behavior choice is to buy, which will increase the expectation of "optimistic" and may also enhance the tolerance.
The comprehensive fiscal deficit is reflected in the credit gap, and the factors that affect the credit gap of the central bank are: (1) refinancing and rediscounting by commercial banks. (2) foreign exchange. (3) Financial overdraft.
For the first factor, the central bank can absorb the deposits of commercial banks in the central bank to balance it. Usually, the central bank's loans to commercial banks are greater than the deposits of commercial banks in the central bank, and there is a loan gap. This is because: (1) the base currency mainly comes from loans from the central bank. After the loan leads to deposit, all kinds of assets must be separated from the deposit. For example, commercial banks pay the statutory deposit reserve or buy government bonds, which will inevitably lead to the deposit amount being less than the loan amount. (2) Although the financial vault deposit is managed by the central bank, its operation must be carried out through the settlement account of the commercial bank in the central bank, which will cause changes in the settlement account deposit. The general situation is that the deposits of settlement households decrease and the deposits of fiscal treasury increase. (3) Although the cash in circulation is the debt of the central bank, it is extracted from the deposits of settlement households of commercial banks and is the assets of commercial banks. In order to meet the social demand for cash, the loan to the central bank is always greater than the deposit. (4) It is impossible for commercial banks to repay all loans to the central bank, because commercial banks must maintain the ability to derive deposits. If all the loans of the central bank are paid off, the deposits of commercial bank settlement households will be gone.
For the second factor, the central bank can sell foreign exchange reserves to balance it, but under the condition that the central bank buys foreign exchange for foreign exchange reserves and the foreign exchange reserves cannot be reduced but can only be increased, the credit difference caused by this factor can only be the loan difference.
For the third factor, the central bank can only balance it by issuing money, because the fiscal deficit occurs as "expenditure first, then settlement", that is to say, under the condition that the bank acts as the agent of the fiscal treasury, the daily receipt and payment of finance through the bank is not how much money is spent, but how much money is collected and paid until the final settlement. If the expenditure exceeds the income, there is a deficit, the expenditure has already occurred, and the money has already been paid. Therefore, it is an objective law of fait accompli that the comprehensive fiscal deficit increases, the central bank's credit balance expands and the currency issuance makes up for it. Under the action of this objective law, it will increase the pressure of inflation. Of course, if the comprehensive fiscal deficit expands, it will not necessarily send more money, that is, "borrowing new debts to repay old debts", and the transfer and continuation of the relationship between creditor's rights and debts will be "borrowed by predecessors and borne by future generations". This may be the law of credit economy, which is hard to avoid. Therefore, there is no need to panic or be afraid. The problem is that "future generations" should "live up to expectations" and improve the economic quality, otherwise the debt will become heavier and heavier.
Fourth, the effects of fiscal and monetary policies will be offset.
During China's reform and development, the role of fiscal and monetary policies will be offset by the following main factors.
(A) offset the expected psychology of the public
In the past 20 years since the reform, most people have deeply realized that the changes brought about by the reform and opening up are: economic development, material abundance, gradual prosperity of the people and improvement of living standards. I'm afraid few people are willing to go back to the planned system of buying consumer goods by ticket. But at the same time, people feel that the reform has been changed to their own heads. The reduction of "big pot rice" and the cancellation of various subsidies and benefits have increased their burden and pressure. In addition, people have to devote themselves to accumulating money and other assets. At this stage, the accumulation process has been completed for a small number of people, mainly those who have made a fortune, including entrepreneurs, but for the vast majority of people, it is still at the beginning and still in the primitive accumulation stage. In this case, a considerable number of people earn money for "primitive accumulation". It is right to see that a considerable part of bank deposits, especially savings deposits, are not used for consumption income but for private funds (except public funds and private deposits), but this is not enough. We should also see that a considerable part of both income and funds are people's "primitive accumulation". If this analysis is correct, what role can loose fiscal policy and monetary policy play in expanding domestic demand, and how big is the role? Generally speaking, the general public hopes that the government (in the eyes of the general public, the financial money is naturally the government's money, the bank is run by the state, and the bank's money is also the government's money) will come up with more money to realize its "primitive accumulation" instead of increasing consumption. To understand fiscal policy and monetary policy, in
Developed market economy countries put forward and used it only after completing the original accumulation stage. China is a developing country, and the market economy is still in the primitive accumulation stage for the general public. How can it be unrealistic to expect them to play the role of western countries? This can be described as a stage theory in which the roles of fiscal and monetary policies are offset.
(2) Offset by economic system factors After China proposed the establishment of a socialist market economic system, although authoritative documents clearly proposed the common development of various economic sectors, it is undeniable that the state-owned economic sector not only dominates, but also occupies a monopoly position. In the financial field, the business of state-owned financial institutions (mainly commercial banks) accounts for more than 90%, while the business of non-state-owned financial institutions accounts for only a few percentage points. In this case, it can be said that the subject of policy is the government, and the object of policy is also the government, because state ownership is actually owned by the government. The identity of policy subject and policy object "softens" the restraint mechanism and incentive mechanism of policy. Furthermore, the reason for this "softening" is the lack of interest-driven and rights and obligations constraints. It stands to reason that the target of fiscal and monetary policy should be many market economic entities with independent legal personality. Only on the basis of many such market economic subjects can the implementation of fiscal and monetary policies be binding and an incentive mechanism be formed. However, the current situation in China is that it is difficult to say that state-owned enterprises have really become the main body of the market economy. Coupled with administrative intervention and interpersonal relationships, the implementation of policies will be disturbed and the role of policies will be difficult to give full play. This can be described as an institutional theory that the role of fiscal policy is offset.
(3) The negative effects of the policy operation mechanism offset the operation of the current fiscal and monetary policies. It is worth noting that the national debt is mainly bought by state-owned banks, "the bank's money is used for finance"; On the one hand, expand fiscal expenditure (investment), on the other hand, focus on increasing fiscal revenue (increase taxes); On the one hand, efforts are made to increase loans, on the other hand, savings deposits are actively absorbed; On the one hand, it is necessary to expand the supply of base money, on the other hand, the main channel of base money supply is narrow. This situation has formed a "three shifts and one reduction", that is, the bank's money is transferred to finance, and the financial expenditure is transferred to fiscal revenue; Loan to deposit; The supply channel of base money has narrowed. First of all, the transfer of bank money to finance will reduce the supply of base money, because the issuance of financial bonds and bank purchases are reflected in the bank's balance sheet. On the one hand, the deposits of commercial banks in the central bank have decreased, on the other hand, the treasury deposits of the central bank on behalf of finance have increased. This increase or decrease is to reduce the base money supply of the central bank. Secondly, the transfer of fiscal expenditure to fiscal revenue offsets the expansion effect of active fiscal policy, and some units pay taxes or pay back taxes after receiving financial allocations, forming a "reverse movement" against fiscal policy. Finally, it seems natural to convert loans into deposits, because according to the formula of "loan = deposit+cash", deposits in China are mainly from loans at present. The problem is that loans are converted into savings, and savings are quasi-monetary deposits. The more loans, the less demand deposits derived by commercial banks, the less derivative deposits, and the smaller the currency multiplier. In addition, the narrowing of the supply channel of base money is reflected in the changes in the supply channel of base money of the central bank in recent years. In the first two years, the central bank's base money supply channels were mainly foreign exchange and loans to policy banks, both of which accounted for the vast majority of the central bank's base money supply. In recent years, due to the decrease of foreign exchange income from foreign trade, the growth of foreign exchange reserves is not fast, and the growth of foreign exchange holdings of the central bank is not much, which makes it difficult for the central bank to expand the base money supply through this channel; Although loans to policy banks continue to be normal, loans to policy banks cannot come from deposits (theoretically), which not only makes it possible to reduce the base money supply (compared with the expected target), but also weakens the "foundation" of the central bank's money supply because it cannot come from deposits.
This "three turns and one drop" generally reduces the "multiplier effect" of fiscal and monetary policies. We should know that the effect of fiscal and monetary policy needs to be achieved through "multiplier" expansion. If the "multiplier effect" decreases, it is difficult for loose fiscal policy and monetary policy to play a loose role, which can be described as the negative effect theory of the operating mechanism in which fiscal policy and monetary policy cancel each other out. To exert the effect of fiscal and monetary policy, we must weaken these factors that offset the effect of the policy, that is, improve the public's psychological expectation, form a real market economy subject through reform, and change and improve the operating mechanism. All these should strengthen government behavior, strengthen the market orientation of policies, and promote the development and perfection of the market economic system.