In the past, loans were a very common phenomenon in the United States, from houses to cars, from credit cards to telephone bills.
Locals rarely buy a house in cash at one time, usually with long-term loans. But we also know that unemployment and reemployment are very common phenomena in the United States. How can these people with unstable income or no income buy a house? Because their credit rating is not up to standard, they are defined as subprime lenders.
About 10 years ago, at that time, advertisements of loan companies appeared on TV, newspapers and streets, or your mailbox was filled with attractive leaflets:
"Have you ever thought about the life of the middle class? Buy a house! 』
"Not enough savings? Go get a loan! 』
"No income? Find a long-term loan company! 』
"Can't afford the down payment? We offer zero down payment! 』
"Worried that interest rates are too high? We offer a preferential interest rate of 3% for the first two years! 』
"Still can't afford it every month? It doesn't matter, you only need to pay interest in the first 24 months, and you can also repay the loan principal two years later! Think about it, you must have found a job or been promoted to manager two years later, and I'm afraid you can't afford it then! 』
"I'm worried that I still can't afford it after two years? Oh, you are too careful. Look at how much the house has risen now compared with two years ago. Then you can sell it to others, not only for two years, but also at a profit! Besides, you don't have to pay. I believe you can do it. Dare I borrow it? Dare you borrow it? 』
Under such temptation, countless American citizens did not hesitate to choose a loan to buy a house. Are you worried about their debts in two years? American citizens who have always been quite optimistic will tell you that anyone who plays movies can be a governor, and maybe I can run for president in two years. )
A parent-loan company has made amazing achievements in just a few months, but all the money has been lent out. Can it be redeemed? Mr. Aang, the chairman of the company who is also familiar with American economic history, can't be unaware that the real estate market is also risky, so it seems that this income can't be absorbed by himself, and he needs to find a partner to share the risk.
So Ayong found the leading brother in American financial circles-investment bank. These people are big names (Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Morgan). What do they do every day? Even if you are full, you are idle, so you find a Nobel economist, a Harvard professor and a financial engineer, and use the latest economic data model to make some analysis reports after some financial alchemy (copula was almost made at this time) to evaluate whether a certain stock is worth buying. The stock market in a certain country is already in a bubble. Do you think they think there is any risk?
Just kidding, the risk can be seen with your feet! But there are profits, so why hesitate? Take over! So economists, financial engineers and university professors repackaged the data model and stochastic simulation evaluation, and got a new product-CDO (note: debt-backed bonds), which is a bond after all. By issuing and selling such CDO bonds, bondholders can share the risk of housing loans.
If you sell it like this, the risk is too high or no one will buy it. Assume that the risk level of the original bond is 6, which belongs to medium and high. Therefore, investment banks divide it into two parts (trenches): advanced CDO and ordinary CDO. In the case of debt crisis, the old CDO enjoys the priority of compensation. In this way, the risk levels of the two parts become 4 and 8 respectively, and the total risk remains unchanged. However, the former is a low-risk bond. With the golden words of the investment bank, seminars were held in high-end hotels, and exquisite powerpoints and excel spreadsheets were delivered, which of course sold out! But what about the remaining high-risk bonds with a risk rating of 8? Who is a hedge fund, so the investment bank found a hedge fund, which is a role in the financial circles all over the world and a life of licking blood. This risk is negligible!
So relying on the relationship, I borrowed money from the bank with the lowest interest rate in the world, and then bought this part of ordinary CDO bonds in large quantities. Before 2006, the loan interest rate of the Bank of Japan was only1.5%; The interest rate of ordinary CDO may reach 12%, so the spread hedge fund alone will make a lot of money.
In this way, something wonderful happened. At the end of 200 1, American real estate soared, more than doubling in just a few years. God, just like the advertisement at the beginning of the loan company, there will be no problem of not being able to repay the house loan. Even if you have no money, you can still make a profit by selling your house.
As a result, everyone made money from people who bought houses with loans, to long-term loan companies, to major investment banks, to ordinary banks and to hedge funds, but the investment banks were not very happy! At first, I thought the risk of ordinary CDO was too high, so I threw it to hedge funds. I didn't expect these guys to earn more than themselves, and their net worth rose desperately. I knew I kept it for fun, so the investment bank started buying hedge funds and planned to share it. It's like a Zhai family having a meal that has been preserved for a long time. He happened to see that annoying puppy next door and planned to poison it. I didn't expect the puppy to eat it, but it became stronger and stronger. I was dumbfounded. Is moldy food more nutritious? So I started eating by myself!
Now hedge funds are very happy. Who are they, bandits who have 10 in their hands and can still try to borrow 10 to play? Now, of course, they have to fight the sought-after CDO! So they mortgaged their CDO bonds to the bank 10 times to operate other financial products, and then continued to chase investment banks to buy ordinary CDOs.
Coco, we signed an agreement, but these ordinary CDOs are ours! !
Investment banks are really unhappy, except for continuing to buy hedge funds and selling ordinary CDOs to hedge funds.
In addition, they also released a new product called CDS (note: credit default swap). Wall Street is a hotbed of these genius products: ordinary investors think that the original CDO is risky, so I will get an insurance policy, and I will take part of the money from the CDO as insurance premium every year and give it to the insurance company free of charge, but if there is any risk in the future, everyone will bear it together.
The insurance company represented by AIG thought, yes, CDO earns so much money at present, and 1 cent is divided into profits without paying. Isn't that giving us money for nothing every year? Hedge funds think it's ok. They have earned it for several years, and the risks are getting bigger and bigger in the future. Just divide part of the profits, and the insurance company will bear half of the risks! So everyone is happy again, win-win! CD is also very popular!
But the story is not over yet:
Because "smart" Wall Street people have come up with innovative products based on CDS! Let's find more ordinary investors to share it. Suppose CDS brings us 5 billion yuan in income. Now I'm issuing a new fund to invest in CDS. Obviously, the risk of this fund based on a series of previous products is very high, but I take the 5 billion I earned as a deposit. If this fund loses money, use this 5 billion to advance it. Only when this 5 billion is lost will the principal of your investment begin to lose money. God, is there a better fund than this?
1 yuan face value of the fund, 10% loss will not lose their own money, but every penny earned is their own!
Rating agencies saw this genius plan and simply did not hesitate: give AAA rating!
As a result, funds sold like crazy, and various retirement funds, education funds, wealth management products, and even banks in other countries bought them. Although the initial fundraising scale was initially set at 50 billion yuan, it was almost impossible to estimate how many billion yuan was issued later, but the deposit of 5 billion yuan has not changed.
If the existing scale is 500 billion yuan, the deposit can only guarantee that the fund will not lose money under the condition of net value of the fund 1% of the principal, which means that the probability of loss is getting higher and higher.
By the end of 2006, the American real estate, which has enjoyed a beautiful scenery for five years, finally fell from its peak, and this food chain finally began to break. Because of the falling house prices, the time limit for preferential loan interest rates has come. First, ordinary people couldn't repay their loans, then long-term loan companies closed down, and hedge funds suffered huge losses, which in turn implicated AIG insurance companies and loan banks. Citigroup and Morgan issued huge loss reports one after another, at the same time, the major investment banks that invested in hedge funds also suffered losses. Then the stock market plummeted, people generally lost money, and the number of people unable to repay their mortgages continued to increase. In the end, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States broke out and was close to becoming a subprime mortgage crisis.
The credit crunch has opened the door to hell, but I don't know how to close it. ...
After reading the above, let's talk about China. China's main foreign exchange reserve is the US dollar, which has reached 1.9 trillion. In this financial crisis, the United States has increased a lot of cash flow and printed a lot of money, so there is inflation in the short term and it is reasonable for the dollar to depreciate. Of course, the victim is China. Who told you to reserve dollars?
After reading foreign countries and then looking at China, the domestic property market bubble is also very big, and people are buying houses in a single stage. The country is relaxing its financial policy, which means lowering interest rates to stimulate currency circulation. Anyway, the bank has no interest, which is what the landlord said (1. Bank interest income decreases). Moreover, the state also said that it would increase the capital flow, that is to say, it would print more money. In the short term, the amount of money is increased, and the money is worthless if it is printed more, which is what the landlord said (2. Prices go up and purchasing power goes down). Cutting interest rates can help. It's like rubbing powder on a rotten ulcer, and it seems to be covered in a short time. In fact, the rotten ulcer is deeper. As for challenges and opportunities, NDRC also said that food prices should be "in line" with the international market. For example, the international crude oil price has reached $65438 +050. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is "consistent" with the rise of international food prices. Why only look at the so-called exchange rate without considering the actual purchasing power and wage level of the domestic currency? Therefore, prices have risen, people's purchasing power is not good, and the things produced by the factory cannot be sold, so they have to close down. It is not surprising that tens of millions of migrant workers are unemployed now!
The living standard is in line with North Korea, the welfare and medical security of ordinary people are in line with Africa, and prices, house prices and oil prices are in line with Europe and the United States. This is a challenge and opportunity for China to improve its international status. You got it?
Financial crisis refers to the sharp, short-term and super-cycle deterioration of all or most financial indicators (such as short-term interest rates, monetary assets, securities, real estate, land (price), the number of commercial bankruptcies and the number of financial institutions) in a country or several countries and regions.
1. The financial crisis originated in America. Causes of financial crisis: The credit expansion caused by fictitious economy and the bursting of economic bubble are the main causes of financial crisis. The subprime mortgage crisis is the fuse. Sub-prime bonds are actually only $600 billion, which caused such a big financial crisis because of following the trend, that is, people's psychological expectations. Herd effect refers to the situation that investors have not formed their own expectations or obtained first-hand information in the market. Theoretically speaking, herding behavior will aggravate market fluctuation and become the key to the success of leaders' behavior. In the following situations, sesame seed cake is the leader. In the real economy, subprime mortgage is the leader.
2. From the subprime mortgage crisis to the financial crisis, here is an original case: two people sell baked wheat cakes, each selling 20 cakes a day (because the demand for baked wheat cakes is only 40), and the output value of one yuan per day is 40 yuan. Later, they discussed and bought 100(A bought it from B and B 100 bought it from A 100).
If the price of sesame cakes traded with each other is 5 yuan, the daily transaction amount is 1040 yuan. At this time, A and B will raise the market biscuits to 2 yuan. Some people heard that sesame seed cakes 1 were sold in 5 yuan, but when they saw that there was only 2 yuan in the market, they quickly bought them. -The bubble economy came into being.
Baked sesame seeds can't be cooked at once, so buy forward cakes. A, Otsuichi increased the number of baked wheat cakes (up to 100 per day), on the other hand, it sold forward baked wheat cakes, and at the same time began to issue baked wheat cakes bonds. Buyers use cash and mortgages to buy. -Financing, financial intervention.
Some people want to buy it, and they have neither cash nor collateral, so A and B issue subordinated biscuit bonds to buy insurance from insurance institutions-subprime bonds have planted seeds for the subprime mortgage crisis.
One day, I found that I couldn't eat the biscuits I bought. If it is stored in one place and moldy, I will sell it soon, even if the price is lower. The bubble burst.
This is how the financial crisis broke out. Cookie shop layoffs (as long as 40 cookies a day)-unemployment; Sesame cake bonds become waste paper-subprime mortgage crisis
Mortgage loan (collateral is worthless) can not be recovered, the liquidity crisis of the lending bank, the bankruptcy of the insurance company and so on. -Financial crisis
3. In the process from subprime mortgage crisis to financial crisis, the financial leverage of financial institutions and the issuance and circulation of financial derivatives have played an amplification role.
4. deeper level
(1) Long-term accumulation of early consumption. In the United States, early consumption has been popular for a long time, encouraging people to buy houses, cars and high-end consumer goods. In order to pursue high profits, banks issue credit cards to residents to encourage consumption in advance. Enjoy today with tomorrow's money "Let your dreams come early and make them come true." Being able to earn and spend is the pride of the times. " To put it bluntly, this kind of advanced consumption has also brought temporary prosperity for several years. However, this kind of advanced purchasing power in the future, after all, is "unable to make ends meet", with bubbles, temporary prosperity and illusory colors. Once the economy is depressed, a large number of unemployed people will not pay their debts, and consumers' ability to pay will drop sharply. American subprime debts will be highlighted in front of the world, banks will have piles of bad debts, and some investment banks will face bankruptcy.
(2) American banks bear high salaries. The American banking industry has been pampered for a long time and seems to be a "favored son of heaven." High-level leaders are well paid, with millions of annual salaries everywhere and hundreds of thousands of middle-level white-collar workers. For a long time, the banking industry has covered up the contradiction because of the huge amount of loans and rich profits. Although the salary is high every year, it can get by. Once the debtor is unable to pay his debts, a batch of bad debts will appear, forming a triangular debt. At first, the bank was in trouble, and then it suffered huge losses. So a lot of layoffs. If we seriously reflect, high salary is an excessive enjoyment of economic achievements and contains exploitation factors. Or it is a foolish act of "fishing with exhausted resources" and "killing the goose to get the egg".
(3) The United States currently lacks emerging industries. Over the years, emerging industries in the United States have often led the world trend. Such as expressway, automobile industry, aviation industry and electronic communication industry. For example, the software and hardware of computers and mobile phones are far ahead. When many countries were still in infancy, the United States had formed an industry on a large scale. However, in the past ten years, these leading industries in the United States have been hovering, while many countries in the world are catching up quickly. The electronic industries such as computers and mobile phones have developed rapidly, and the advantages of the United States have weakened relatively, or gradually lost their advantages.
Rome was not built in a day. The financial crisis in the United States is a long-term accumulation, which inspires people to learn from it. We should proceed from our own reality and do a good job in China. This is also a good way to resolve the impact of the US financial crisis on China.
5. The financial crisis has spread all over the world, affecting China. Part of the country's foreign exchange reserves are lost, making it difficult to export. Economic growth slows down, unemployment increases, people's income declines, consumption decreases, and the market is depressed. If it is serious, it will cause political instability. Compared with European countries (such as Detroit Motor City), the financial crisis has little impact on China, because China's economy is separated from the international economy to some extent. China's RMB is strictly managed under the capital account, and the impact of international hot money is not great. Now, with more than 70 banks in the United States tending to close down, China's financial system is running well and its economy is growing at a certain speed. At the same time, the state is also taking measures such as expanding finance, reducing the deposit reserve ratio and stimulating domestic demand of 4 trillion yuan. Now, the RMB exchange rate has been lowered. If all macroeconomic measures are effectively implemented, China needs about 1 year.