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What does it mean that monetary policy easing has reached the end of the cycle?
The first stage is from 1979 to 1992. At present, China's economy is growing at a high speed, but at the same time it is characterized by insufficient effective supply, and there has always been a big gap in capital demand. Therefore, the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy focuses on the impact of total supply, and there has been an expansionary policy coordination based on "looseness". From 1979 to 1980, it is mainly reflected in the coordination of the two major policies. 198 1, tight fiscal policy and loose monetary policy; From 1982 to 1984, there are two major policies. 1985 is the "double tight" cooperation of the two major policies; From 1986 to 1988, it still shows the "double loose" cooperation of the two major policies; From 1989 to 199 1 year, it is the "double tight" cooperation of the two major policies; From 1992 to the first half of 1993, the "double pine" cooperation appeared again. At present, the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy has two outstanding characteristics. First, because the reform of market economy system is still in the primary stage, the external environment of policy coordination is not perfect, which shows that the micro-subject of policy function is mostly state-owned enterprises, and administrative means are usually used to complete policy implementation. Second, under the influence of the long-term shortage of economic environment, the government still lacks experience in the application of market economy regulation mechanism, which is manifested in the coordination of the two major policies. It has always been based on direct regulation and control, and rarely uses fiscal and financial intermediate variables to indirectly affect economic entities. Moreover, there are many cases of "loose front and tight back", and there is no diversified policy mix, which also causes poor policy coordination. It has become the norm that "it is chaotic when released, and it is dead when caught". The second stage is 1993 to 1996. At this stage, the degree of marketization of China's economy began to increase rapidly, the total economic volume continued to expand, and the activity of microeconomic entities was also increasing. At the same time, however, under the background of insufficient effective supply, overheating of the economy has also led to the accumulation of inflation risks. From the second half of 1993 to 1996, fiscal policy and monetary policy have always been "double tight". The goal of policy coordination is to control the deficit, reduce debt issuance, reduce government expenditure and control the total amount of money through tightening policies. At the same time, the coordination of the two policies has gradually gained the foundation of system reform, in which the tax system and tax-sharing system reform in 1994 gradually laid the foundation of public finance, and the Law of the People's Bank of China adopted in 1995 also made monetary policy formulation more independent. It should be said that there have been some new changes in the coordination of the two major policies during this period, including the diversification of control means, the improvement of control skills and the improvement of macro-control ability, which have played a great role in realizing the "soft landing" of the economy. It should be pointed out that the reform of foreign exchange system, which started at 1994, not only made monetary policy begin to consider new problems under the condition of open economy, but also triggered a new level of cooperation between the two major policies in the future. The third stage is 1997 to 2002. Since 1997, due to the fundamental changes in the growth base, China's economic development has gradually shifted from resource constraints to demand constraints, and insufficient effective demand has become a new problem in economic regulation. The outbreak of the Asian financial crisis further prompted the cyclical decline of China's economy, and signs of deflation, such as lower prices, depressed investment and increased unemployment, began to attract attention. Faced with this situation, after 1997, the fiscal and monetary policies changed from moderately tight to "double loose" coordination. Among them, the expansionary "active" fiscal policy is mainly to raise funds for social infrastructure construction by issuing long-term national debt. During this period, the essence of "prudent" monetary policy is to continuously increase the money supply by reducing the deposit and loan interest rates and the deposit reserve ratio for many times, and to cancel the loan scale limit of state-owned commercial banks at the beginning of the year 1998. During this period, one of the key points of the coordination of the two policies is to provide liquidity and credit support for construction projects and enterprises, trying to stimulate the vitality of micro-subjects to promote the improvement of effective demand. At present, the government is facing the economic cycle trough in the modern sense for the first time, and it is in a dilemma of insufficient effective demand and structural supply, which not only provides an innovative background for the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, but also brings many new problems. The fourth stage is from 2003 to the present. Since 2003, China's economic situation has changed again, and there have been problems such as increasing inflationary pressure, excessive growth of credit and investment, and excessive inflow of foreign capital. In this context, since 2004, the government has gradually adjusted the direction and intensity of fiscal policy, appropriately adjusted the long-term construction scale of national debt and optimized the fund use structure of national debt projects, and sent a policy signal to the society that the government should reasonably control investment. In 2005, it was announced that it would change its fiscal policy again and implement a prudent fiscal policy of "controlling deficit, adjusting structure, promoting reform, increasing revenue and reducing expenditure". Accordingly, since 2003, the connotation of prudent monetary policy has also changed, mainly to recover liquidity appropriately, and finally the policy idea of "prudent and moderately tight" has been determined. In the past five years, the central bank has repeatedly raised the deposit reserve ratio and raised interest rates, which are measures to tighten monetary policy and control the money supply. In 2007, economic overheating and inflation became the biggest problems facing China's economy. The central government also defined the macro-control thinking in 2008 as "the coordination of tight monetary policy and prudent fiscal policy", which also reflected the government's concern about the greater inflationary pressure. It should be said that at this stage, the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy began to show a transition trend to "double tightness". A new feature of the coordination of the two policies is that in addition to the traditional economic aggregate target, there are cooperation practices in new fields, such as issuing special government bonds for the purpose of coping with liquidity problems and promoting the reform of foreign exchange reserve management, reducing interest tax and guiding the flow of savings funds. Based on the practice of coordinating fiscal policy and monetary policy in China, several basic conclusions can be drawn. First, fiscal policy and monetary policy gradually changed to market-oriented regulation, which laid the foundation for the development of the new two major policy coordination mechanisms. 2 1 century, under the overall framework of developing public finance, fiscal policy gradually shifted from focusing on the impact of government investment expenditure on the economy to the comprehensive use of tools such as taxation, public debt and transfer expenditure. With the advancement of financial system reform, monetary policy gradually presents the characteristics of market economy countries, not just traditional credit control. Second, judging from the effects of the two policies, the fiscal policy is from strong to weak, and the monetary policy is from weak to strong. At the beginning of reform and opening up, fiscal policy was dominant, while monetary policy hardly worked. After 1985, with the development of the financial system, controlling the credit scale and influencing the money supply has become the core mode of monetary policy. The tax-sharing reform of 1994 has also weakened the implementation space of the central fiscal policy, making monetary policy the leading party in the coordination of the two major policies. After 1998, due to the unsatisfactory role of monetary policy, expansionary fiscal policy came to the fore again, but this did not weaken the government's expectation of the role of monetary policy. In fact, before and after the active fiscal policy faded out in 2004, monetary policy remained the main party of policy coordination. In 2007, monetary policy faced difficulties in the open economy environment, which made the government aware of the responsibility of fiscal policy in macro-control, which posed new challenges to the coordination of the two policies. Third, so far, the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy is mainly committed to the stability of economic aggregate by paying attention to the management of total demand. We know that under the influence of Keynesian policy thought, the cooperation between finance and finance mainly studies how fiscal policy and monetary policy can promote the stability of total demand level through effective cooperation under the condition of free interest rate in a closed system. For countries with sound market economy, such a policy choice is more effective. However, for an economy like China, which faces the dual tasks of development and transformation, this is too simple. In the long run, the coordination of the two policies must also pay attention to the structural adjustment of supply management and the optimization of financial system under open conditions, which is also an urgent problem to be solved at present.