There is often a positive correlation between exchange rate and house price rise, but this only shows that RMB exchange rate and house price depend on fundamental factors such as per capita income and relative labor productivity, and does not mean that RMB exchange rate can directly affect house prices. The relationship between the two is much more complicated than we thought, and it is difficult to summarize it in one or two sentences.

From the analysis of supply and demand, the appreciation of nominal exchange rate is expected to attract short-term capital inflows and push up real estate prices; Devaluation will lower the price of real estate. However, we can easily find a counterexample: the RMB has depreciated sharply this year, but the real estate prices, especially those in first-and second-tier cities, have skyrocketed. This shows that the exchange rate may only be a variable that has little influence on the real estate price; This round of housing prices is more driven by domestic currency liquidity and has nothing to do with the exchange rate; Due to the purchase restriction, the proportion of foreign hot money investing in real estate should be very small.

Generally speaking, the RMB exchange rate depends on market supply and demand, basket currencies and stable demand. At present, there is still a large-scale trade surplus and strict capital control, and there is no basis for the RMB to depreciate sharply; The impact of exchange rate on real estate prices is also quite limited. On the contrary, under the current policy framework, the central bank's interest rate cut will lead to the depreciation of RMB and the appreciation of house prices, showing a reverse trend; Only when the degree of capital account openness is improved, the positive correlation between exchange rate and housing price will become more significant.