2008- 1 1-03
The market forces enterprises to "hedge"
In the unilaterally falling stock market, if investors don't learn to "escape", then their fate is like fish on the chopping block, and they can only be slaughtered.
Compared with investors in the stock market, there is still a way to escape. With the continuous decline of raw materials and the continuous decline of foreign exchange rate, for some enterprises, there is no chance to escape unless they give up their own enterprises.
Fortunately, you can also hedge! As long as it is used properly, you can still give yourself a chance to survive in such a market.
Do or not do, ice and fire are two worlds.
Since 10, the price of raw materials has been falling continuously. For different enterprises, it is also ice and fire.
Take copper as an example, the decline in one month reached 40%. For copper enterprises, it is simply a pie in the sky. The decline in the price of raw materials means that enterprises can reduce many costs. However, for copper suppliers, it is equivalent to a trap on the ground. If you accidentally fall in, it will be difficult to get out.
Mr. Qian of Ruian Tangxia is engaged in scrap copper processing and copper plate sales. In September, he processed 100 tons of copper coins and put them in the warehouse for sale in 10. But from June 5438 to 10, Mr. Qian's nightmare began to come. The price of copper is falling every day, and he wants to get rid of it quickly, but no one takes over. For a whole month, he lost more than 2 million yuan. For small enterprises with limited funds, such losses are enough to make an enterprise go bankrupt completely.
Copper smelters are much luckier. At the beginning of September, the company bought 200 tons of scrap copper from abroad to smelt copper bars. The enterprise sold 40 lots of Shanghai Copper 090 1 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and bought scrap copper at the same time. Through the hedging function of futures, the risk of copper decline brought by this financial crisis has been effectively resolved. The person in charge of the company said that it is fortunate to hedge in advance, otherwise the losses will be very heavy.
The business of the above two companies is almost the same, but in this wave of market, the fate is completely different.
Mr. Qian told reporters that someone from a futures company had come to him before and recommended "hedging" to him, but he didn't take it seriously, because he had only been in the copper business for a day or two, and he still made money without doing this before. It's too late to finally discover the value of hedging.
Hedging is to control risks.
The person in charge of Wenzhou Business Department in yongan futures said that the sharp fluctuation of raw material prices can reflect the charm of hedging. At present, the price of raw materials has been falling continuously, which makes it attractive to avoid risks. Of course, it can also play a role in the case of rising raw material prices.
The basic practice of hedging is to buy and sell the same commodity in the same quantity but in the opposite direction in both the spot market and the futures market, that is, to buy or sell the same quantity of futures in the futures market at the same time. After a period of time, when the price changes make the spot trading profit or loss, the losses in the futures trading can be offset or compensated. Therefore, hedging mechanisms are established between "now" and "period" and between short-term and long-term to minimize price risk.
Simply put, it is to use two markets, one to buy and one to sell, to achieve a state of no win and no loss, and effectively resolve the risk of price fluctuations.
"The price change of raw materials does not depend on the individual's will, and we can't control the price change at all. Therefore, hedging is the most ideal way to make the enterprise transition smoothly when the price fluctuates greatly. " The person in charge of Wenzhou Business Department in yongan futures said that it is difficult for enterprises that are not good at using this method to cope with sudden changes.
However, according to the reporter's understanding, the enterprises that take this means to resist risks are mainly large enterprises. "The weak risk awareness of small enterprises is one reason, and another reason is that extreme markets are not common. In a relatively stable market, the role of hedging is not obvious. " An analyst of a futures company said that through the "lesson" of last month, more enterprises will adopt futures to hedge.
For foreign trade enterprises, the sensitivity to changes in raw material prices is far less than that to changes in foreign exchange rates. After the exchange rate reform in 2005, the situation of foreign trade enterprises became less and less optimistic. This year, the exchange rate of the euro has gradually declined, and the losses suffered by foreign trade enterprises with the euro as the settlement currency have also increased.
"Although it is not yet possible to hedge foreign exchange, some losses can be appropriately reduced through forward settlement." The head of the international business department of the Agricultural Bank of China Wenzhou Branch said.
As a city with a large number of overseas Chinese, our citizens have a large amount of foreign exchange, especially many people who do business in the euro zone. The foreign exchange in the hands of citizens is mainly euros. Since July this year, the exchange rate of the euro against the RMB has been declining. July 100 Euro can be converted into about 1 100 RMB. By the end of last month, it could only be exchanged for 870 yuan, which dropped by 20% in more than three months. "The main reason for the sharp decline of the euro against the RMB is its sharp decline against the US dollar." The person in charge of Wenzhou Songtai Sub-branch of Bank of China said that in July this year, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar once reached around 1.60, but now it is less than 1.30.
"For opponents who hold the euro, if you predict that the euro will fall again and you don't want to change the euro into RMB, you can use foreign exchange options to make yourself less vulnerable." According to the personage of China Bank, the foreign exchange option of euro against the US dollar introduced by the bank was well received by Wenzhou investors, which really made many investors make money in the falling market of euro. "This is also a means similar to hedging." The person said.
On September 5th, an investor made a one-month put option of 800,000 euros. On that day, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1.435, and the agreed exchange rate was also 1.435. In other words, investors can still exchange dollars at the exchange rate of 1.435 on October 5, 65438, regardless of their actual exchange rate at that time. (If the actual exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar on the maturity date is higher than the agreed exchange rate, the investor has the right to waive this right after paying the option fee. ) 10 year10.6, the actual exchange rate is 1.36, and investors get US dollars at the exchange rate of 1.435. In this transaction, investors earned 60,000 dollars.
& gt& gt& gt reporter's notes
Learn to save yourself
The government keeps rescuing the market, but it has been frustrated repeatedly. Investors' expectations have failed again and again, and the falling market once again tells us that it is unrealistic to expect others to save us, at least at this stage.
Others can't save us, then we must learn to save ourselves. Otherwise, what awaits us is repeated injuries.
Using futures hedging and foreign exchange options is a self-help weapon. Fortunately, many people have learned to use this weapon; Unfortunately, there are still many people who don't need it, and they still slaughter the remaining meat in the market.
In interviews, it is often heard that the person in charge of the futures company said sadly that up to now, most people still regard futures only as a means of speculation, without really realizing its "hedging" function. It is these cognitive biases that make some enterprises or individual investors lose themselves in the extreme market and cause huge losses.
Only by abandoning the idea of getting rich by speculation and establishing the concept of investment and financial management of asset allocation can we make all kinds of investment products for our own use and realize the preservation and appreciation of assets. Even if the market is not good, you can redeem yourself.
Further reading: How to buy insurance, which is good, and teach you how to avoid these "pits" of insurance.