Edwin Hubble's theory that the universe originated from the Big Bang was not generally accepted by ordinary people in the past. The reason is that people are based on a kind of psychology, that is, the world is perfect and rational, which leads to a deviation in the interpretation of reality and involuntarily denies what they are afraid of. Economics, too, will never have an accurate profit model if it is profitable in an irregular market. This is what investors don't want to see, admit or be afraid of. This is why most people are more willing to admit the theory of "rational market", and many economists are also supporters and advocates of rational market. Moreover, the current market analysis is based on the theory of market rationalization. If the market is purely rational, prices will be predicted seamlessly through indicators, the opinions of participants will be unified, and price fluctuations will tend to be consistent. However, due to many factors, this phenomenon has never appeared and is impossible. The above phenomenon can only be explained as: a semi-rational market with different views is guiding participants to make buying and selling decisions. If the market is rational, how to explain the phenomenon of frequent price fluctuations? In addition, the market rationalization theory also involves the periodic regression of prices. It is also inaccurate to predict the general direction of the market with the "rational" periodic regression theory. For example, according to this cycle theory and market participants' expectation that the Bank of Japan will intervene in the foreign exchange market at the beginning of this year to prevent the "excessive" appreciation of the yen from stimulating exports, it is generally speculated that the yen futures contract will depreciate from the price at the beginning of the year to around 125.00 at the end of the year. But from the current point of view, the growth momentum of the yen is very good. The Bank of Japan cannot turn the tide and change the direction of the market. Intervention can only slow down the appreciation of the yen on the basis that the market direction is roughly clear, but it cannot dominate its direction. Therefore, the yen gradually appreciated to the current price of 108.438+02. The government has to introduce many reform programs to reduce the impact of excessive appreciation of the yen on exports. This is a good lesson for those who short the yen for a long time according to this theory. For another example, as we all know, March and September are the annual and semi-annual settlement periods in Japan. Those who used to do foreign exchange futures will buy a lot of yen in March or early September, and then make a profit after the annual settlement in Japan. I found this opportunity more and more difficult to grasp in recent years. The reason is generally that news is digested by the market earlier, large speculative funds make waves and are doped with too many speculative elements, so the market is not easily controlled by its own reason and logic. The applicability of all theories is reflected in the market, which is leading American futures investors and guiding us how to do it. Any operation that is too biased towards "rational cycle theory" is contrary to the original intention of the market. And those who "oppose" the market are undoubtedly committing suicide. It can be seen that the operation of the market is not simply controlled by its own rationality and logic. 2. Psychoanalysis takes brand-new and unique theory as the basis of market analysis, denying that many traditional theories have their new theoretical basis, namely, tracking the motivation of market behavior, seeking the essence of motivation, grasping the market direction, taking advantage of the trend and obtaining benefits. Because market psychology precedes market behavior, expectations based on market psychology can reflect the future trend of the market more quickly and accurately. Simply relying on technical analysis often cannot achieve good results. For example, when it was near 22 o'clock on Friday night of June 5438+February 5 last year, the 5-minute moving average of the euro made a double-top shape after a sharp rise. Because at 2 1: 30 pm Beijing time, the number of non-farm employees in the United States 10 will be announced (expected to be 126000), there were rumors in the market that the number of employees would be greatly reduced before the data was released, so the euro went out of a wave of rising market ten minutes before 2 1: 30. After the data was released (57,000 yuan), influenced by profit-taking and "buy when rumors, sell when confirmation", USD/EUR began to complete the other half of the double top. Many analysts suggest "shorting the euro" according to the technical analysis chart. Many people blindly join the short-selling team. Imagine, affected by the good news, the profit-taking after the exchange rate rose sharply, will it lower the exchange rate to the price before the good news came out? It's almost impossible, otherwise it wouldn't be called "profit taking". Therefore, the exchange rate of the euro consolidated slightly at the waist of M head, and then rose sharply, reaching a record high of 1.2 179 at the close. Some people complain that the market is against them, but in fact it is simply that he does not follow the market. This also shows that it is not advisable to use technical analysis too simply and ignore market psychological prices. Psychoanalysis breaks the traditional prediction model, paying little attention to the "law" of historical price formation and the influence of news. Its starting point is "market psychology". Psychoanalysis tracks the root causes of future ups and downs, rather than the traditional model of guessing based on historical prices. 3. Unique manifestations Psychoanalysis has many manifestations. Here I only give an example: seeing psychoanalysis through the K-line diagram. Some people will say that it's just technical analysis! This idea is wrong. The focus of technical analysis is graphics, the graphics left by historical prices, and the other half of the "coming" graphics is outlined with the professional feeling obtained by observing the graphics, with the focus on the map. The principle of psychological analysis is that when the price is close to the key point, the whole process of a K-line from the beginning to the end of this K-line. Through this process, we can peek at the strength contrast, resistance (or support) strength and so on. Psychoanalysis also looks at the shape of several consecutive K-lines after collection, but it is not a graph. The practical application of psychoanalysis supports an analytical method to survive in the market. Because psychoanalysis speculates on "market psychology", it is more suitable for a fair "no market". Here I give some examples of the application of foreign exchange futures: 1. In February 2003 10, the USD/JPY went from 15 to 17, and soared from 106.75 to 198 in just two hours. Let's recall what happened at that time. Prior to this, the Bank of Japan has repeatedly hinted at the "abnormal" appreciation of the yen. Although investors also expected the Bank of Japan to intervene, they did not expect the Bank of Japan to intervene in the market at the non-integer point of 106.75. Careful investors will find that at 4 am on 10, USD/JPY received a long shadow line in the hourly chart, which was 37 points long and the highest price of JPY was 106.75. The longer shadow line indicates that there is a huge amount of money to short the yen, and then the USD/JPY begins to triangulate, indicating that the position is inevitable. Sure enough, USD/JPY broke at 107.39 and began to move up to the high level of 134. It was the Bank of Japan that shorted USD/JPY this time. The Japanese government intervened in the foreign exchange market with 106.75. At that time, the bad news of the dollar had been exhausted. Therefore, the Bank of Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market at this time will achieve twice the result with half the effort. Therefore, the "unexpected" rise of USD/JPY should be expected by investors. Psychoanalytic method can't accurately predict that the Bank of Japan will intervene at 106.75, but it will definitely predict that USD/JPY will definitely break through the resistance level of 107.38, and make a triangle consolidation and rise sharply. Using psychoanalysis, we have grasped the following five points in this analysis: First, it is a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Japan will intervene in the foreign exchange market, but the time and specific time of intervention are unknown (the market feels about to turn around). Second, the bad news of the US dollar has been exhausted (the good news is all bad! There is no worse fundamental news in the near future) Third, the lower shadow line is a harbinger of a turnaround (showing the difficulty of the yen continuing to rise). Fourth, triangular consolidation is the condition of turning point (the direction after consolidation can basically be inferred by expanding consolidation at this position). Fifth, the K-line chart easily breaks through the strong resistance level of 108.38 (it can be seen that the market is ready for the direction of the market outlook). 2. On June 5438+February 65438+April 2003, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was captured by the US military in his hometown of tikrit, and his identity was verified by DNA testing. There is a long-lost good news about the dollar in the foreign exchange market. But it was Sunday and the foreign exchange market was closed. The market expects the euro to jump when it opens next Monday! Sure enough, the euro jumped to 132 when it opened on Monday! Then stand firm near 1.2 143. Why did you stay near 1.2 143? From the analysis of psychological factors, the price at which the gap price stays at the opening must be a strong resistance! This price is a psychological price that investors dare not exceed. Combined with technical analysis: 1.2 143 is the strong support level of the euro's 240-minute moving average. The longer you stay and consolidate at this price, the more you show the support of this support level. In addition, the soaring dollar after Saddam Hussein's arrest is the result of the news market. When the news is gradually diluted by the market, the euro will definitely strengthen gradually, and there will be a gap in covering the gap. Results Within ten minutes after the opening, the euro made a double bottom pattern at 1.2 143, which strengthened the investors' belief in covering the gap. Throughout the day, the euro has been trying to make up the gap. As of the early morning of 16, the euro has reached the high level of 1.2278, which has covered the gap left by the gap. Using psychological analysis combined with technical graphics, the profit on 15 should be quite rich. Therefore, using psychoanalysis, we have grasped two points in this operation: first, the arrest of Saddam Hussein belongs to the news market, and the market brought by the news is fierce, but with the dilution of the news by the market, this market will come and go quickly and eventually make up for the gap. Second, under the psychological support of 1.2 143, the euro rose steadily. It can be said that 1.2 143 is a strong resistance level (psychological default price) that the market dare not continue to push up, and the price that stops consolidation for a long time (supported by the double bottom of technology) is the lowest price of the euro on that day, so you can boldly hold long positions in the euro at this price. It is not difficult to see from the above two examples that the application of psychoanalysis is very effective and will bring considerable profits in the market. If we can combine fundamental analysis with technical analysis, it will make the application of this method almost perfect and bring more lucrative returns to investors. In a word, psychoanalysis has been applied by many investors with brand-new theories and unique forms of expression, and the profits are quite rich. It fills the gap between fundamental analysis method and technical analysis method, makes biased and perceptual expectation analysis better integrated, and makes more accurate expectations for the market.