So, what is the cause of the Asian financial turmoil?
After reading a series of reports about the Asian financial turmoil and my own research, I found the following reasons:
1. george soros's individuals and capitalist groups supporting him;
The influence of American economic interests and policies;
3. The economic model of Asian countries leads to.
1. george soros's personal factors and a capitalist group that supports him;
"Financial predator" and "a sleeping old wolf" are the titles for this financial geek. He once said, "As far as financial operation is concerned, it has no morality or immorality, it is just an operation. Financial market does not belong to the category of morality, it is not immoral, and morality does not exist here at all, because it has its own rules of the game. I am a participant in the financial market. I will play this game according to the established rules. I will not violate these rules, so I won't feel guilty or responsible. Judging from the Asian financial turmoil, whether I speculate or not has no effect on the occurrence of financial events. It will still happen without hype. I don't think it's immoral to speculate in foreign currency. On the other hand, I abide by the operating rules. I respect these rules and care about them. As a moral person who cares about them, I want to ensure that these rules are conducive to building a good society, so I advocate changing some rules. I think some rules need to be improved. If improvement and improvement affect my own interests, I will still support it, because the rules that need to be improved may be the cause of the incident. "
As we all know, Soros's hype about Thai baht is the fuse of the Asian financial turmoil. He is an absolutely powerful and capable financier, but it is obviously despicable to achieve his goal of obtaining huge capital by playing with the political power of Asian countries.
Second, the impact of American economic interests and policies:
1949, Oriental Group, the predecessor of New China, was established. As the number one power of capitalism, the United States has a sense of crisis. He established a capitalist United front in the Asia-Pacific region through strong economic backing: South Korea, Japan, Taiwan Province Province and even Southeast Asia all became economic vassals of the United States. This has brought economic support to the rapid development of some Asian countries. In the 1970s, the economies of some countries in Southeast Asia developed rapidly.
But in 199 1, the disintegration of the Soviet Union marked the disintegration of the socialist lineup. Of course, the United States did not allow the Asian economy to continue to develop like this, so it began to recover economic losses. For Soros's behavior, he is conniving.
Third, the economic model of Asian countries leads to:
New Matai, Japan and South Korea are all export-oriented countries. They are highly dependent on the world market. The shake of the Asian economy will inevitably lead to a situation that will affect the whole body. Take Thailand as an example. Whether Thai baht should be bought and sold in the international market is not dominated by the government, nor does it have sufficient foreign exchange reserves. Facing the speculation of financiers, the national economy is vulnerable. The economy determines politics, so the political situation in Thailand is turbulent.
As an important economic phenomenon, the background and causes of the Asian financial crisis can be regarded as a collection of many factors, including its own situation and external environment, economic operation mode and economic structure, economic system and system.
After the oil crisis in the early 1970s, financial capital gradually became active. In the process of its growth, constantly creating global financial turmoil is the main medium for the rapid expansion of the crisis. The Latin American debt crisis in the early 1980s, the European monetary system crisis in the early 1990s, the Mexican exchange rate crisis of 1994, the southeast Asian financial crisis of 1997, and the recent financial crisis in South America all showed the great destructive power of international financial capital. Although economists all over the world have been exploring countermeasures and many countries are trying to strengthen capital controls, on the whole, these efforts have had little effect. There are two reasons:
First, the amount of international hot money far exceeds the size of the real economy, and they must operate to meet the needs of investment and return. Some people think that it can provide sufficient financial support for normal investment, production and trade. This role certainly exists, but it is a pity that these funds are not completely fixed in real economic activities, but invested in securities and derivatives with higher returns. Moreover, when the relative yields of investment, production and trade change, they often withdraw and invest at any time by buying and selling securities and derivatives. The supply and demand of funds in the real economy fluctuate frequently, causing a chain reaction between exchange rate and interest rate. Huge international hot money can influence the economic ups and downs of a country or even the whole region, and a government, central bank or even domestic funds can't resist the shock effect it brings. These huge capitals are held by a few financial institutions, most of which are rooted in developed countries. Coupled with the huge capital scale of the local market, it is easy to drive and dominate the flow of international capital. With the opening of financial markets in developing countries and the trend of non-mutual aid and bubble strengthening, funds from developing countries have also entered the international financial market, and some of them have become international hot money. Although this financial factor is not consistent with the real economic cycle, it has enough power to distort the real economic cycle.
Secondly, besides external factors, our own situation is also a problem. Take 1997 Southeast Asian financial storm as an example. At that time, the global productivity was surplus, especially in the primary product processing industry. Southeast Asia is an export-oriented economy. With the innovation of new technology represented by information technology, the application cycle is shortened, and the life cycle of technology and products is also greatly shortened. In an unprecedented peaceful situation, by the end of the 1990s (last century), no matter what kind of industries, there was basically overcapacity in the world, and Southeast Asia, with the processing industry with the most overcapacity as its pillar, was the most vulnerable link in urgent need of structural adjustment.
The Asian financial crisis in 1997 happened under these two backgrounds. Of course, there are other reasons for the crisis in Southeast Asia. In fact, Latin America and Eastern Europe have similar problems, but because Latin America's macroeconomic situation and foreign trade performance in Eastern Europe are not as good as those in Southeast Asia, international financial capital has chosen Southeast Asia, which has accumulated a lot of wealth in the past 30 years. (In a word, Latin America and Eastern Europe are poor and have no oil and water)
The change of financial environment has caused serious problems in the original financial conversion mechanism in Southeast Asia. The original system in Southeast Asia was that the interest rate of bank deposits was high-a large number of loans were given to enterprises-and the debts of enterprises were high. Despite the word "debt", it is a very stable financial conversion mechanism under the closed system and the operation of government banks. However, in the mid-1990s, financial markets in Southeast Asia gradually opened up. While introducing foreign capital, domestic capital also flows internationally. Foreign capital usually only makes speculative investment, not quasi-equity loan investment. Domestic savings also seek higher-return investments in international or domestic financial markets (stock market and real estate in bubbles) or safer overseas investments (such as US Treasury bonds). When we are so optimistic about the local economic development, the influx of foreign capital has caused an economic bubble in the country or the region; A gust of wind blew, and foreign capital and domestic capital retreated in a large scale, but local enterprises that did not extricate themselves from the high-debt model had great financial difficulties, their stock prices plummeted and their economic strength dropped greatly.
In addition, after the end of the Cold War, the foreign policy of the United States changed and began to contain Southeast Asia to avoid its rapid development threatening its influence in the region.
China promised that the RMB would not depreciate at the risk of economic shocks.
China's Prime Minister Zhu Rongji told the visiting US Secretary of State yesterday that China is at risk.
Its own economic development is affected, "it may be more affected in the future", and it promises RMB.
Not devaluing is a positive contribution to maintaining regional stability.
China Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tang Guoqiang briefed the media on Zhu Rongji's meeting with Albright.
Wright's talk.
Zhu Rongji said that the China government has been paying close attention to the development of the Asian financial crisis.
China's economic development has been affected, and it may be even more affected in the future.
Norway's RMB will not depreciate, and it has provided assistance to relevant countries through bilateral and multilateral channels.
China's assistance is a positive contribution to maintaining regional stability, which shows that China is one of the most important countries in the world.
A responsible big country.
Zhu Rongji said that China has provided $4 billion in aid. Of which 2.2 billion
60 million dollars have been paid.
Albright said that during the Asian financial crisis, the United States played a stabilizing role in China.
Express appreciation and gratitude.
On March 1998 and 17, the new Prime Minister of the State Council, Zhu Rongji, announced "one confirmation".
Promise. "We must ensure that China's economic development rate reaches 8% this year," he said.
If the commodity inflation rate is below 3%, it is impossible for the RMB to depreciate.
Since the Asian economic crisis last year, RMB has become the focus of attention. exist
In the case that currencies of Asian countries are depreciating and imports are decreasing, we must insist that the RMB should not depreciate.
The value is hard to say, and many people are skeptical, especially China, which suffered from the once-in-a-century flood.
After the water, this suspicion soon became a popular rumor and an international financial speculation.
A flare to attack the Hong Kong stock market.
However, the people of China have great confidence in the RMB, and there is no place to snap it up.
As we all know, Premier Zhu has always been tough and uncompromising, not to mention the history.
It is not recommended to rely on invoices for construction in the future. He said a long time ago: "Money alone is basically completed."
Even if it doesn't work, the final result must be inflation, which has already arrived.
To a certain extent, it has to be paid back, not worth the loss. "
The fact of 1998 proves that the RMB has not depreciated, and even appreciated a little.
..... How? China people deeply feel that this year's money is particularly valuable, and things are cheaper than last year. mankind
Many countries, except China people, have benefited greatly from the fact that the RMB does not depreciate.
When leaders met with China leaders, the first thing they said was that China insisted on RMB.
The value of strategies to express gratitude or gratitude.