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Is the exchange rate rise good or bad for the stock market?
This depends on what kind of stocks, such as aviation and real estate, have more foreign capital and enterprises do not rely on exports. Of course, it is a good thing that foreign capital flows in after the exchange rate rises; However, the profits of export-oriented enterprises such as textiles will be greatly reduced after the exchange rate rises, which is of course bad. Take the second question as an example: suppose 1: in 2007, 65438+ 10/USD =7.7 yuan RMB, and in 2008, 65438+ 10/USD =7.3 yuan RMB (RMB appreciates by 5%); Hypothesis 2: The cost of foreign capital entering China for arbitrage is 10% interest (or discount rate) per year; Scenario 3: On June 65,438 438+ 10/October 0, 2008, the rate of return on foreign investment was 65,438+05%, that is, the original RMB in 7.7 yuan became 8.8 yuan (an increase of 65,438+05%); Under the above three assumptions, we can see that on June 65438+ 10 1 in 2008, foreign investors converted the RMB recovered from their investment into US dollars, and how much was it? 8.8 RMB divided by 7.3, when RMB exchange rate = 1.2 USD. If their capital cost (or discount rate) = 0. 1 USD is deducted, their final net profit value is1.2-0.1=1.65438. It can be seen that without the contribution of RMB appreciation, their return can only be 8.8 RMB. After deducting their capital cost of 65,438+00% = 0.65,438+04 USD, their net profit is only 65,438+0.65,438+04-0.65,438 USD. Therefore, for foreign investors, RMB appreciation will bring higher return on investment or lower costs (higher profits).