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When the foreign exchange rate rises, will the RMB depreciate or appreciate?
In the international market, foreign exchange is not a simple currency, but a practical commodity, which will be affected by the relationship between supply and demand. When there are more buyers than sellers of a certain currency, the price of the currency will inevitably rise. On the contrary, when the seller's power prevails in the market, the currency price will inevitably fall. Then how will the RMB go when the foreign exchange rate rises? When the foreign exchange rate rises, will the RMB depreciate or appreciate? In this regard, we need to determine whether the foreign exchange rate we are studying is the direct quotation method or the indirect pricing method. Generally, the two ends of the exchange rate are local currency and foreign currency, and the exchange rate of foreign currency is below the direct quotation, so its rise means RMB depreciation, and under the indirect pricing method, its rise means RMB appreciation. Therefore, this is what we should pay attention to when judging how the rise of foreign exchange rate will affect the trend of RMB. So what are the factors that generally affect the change of foreign exchange rate? 1 changes in the balance of payments will lead to changes in the foreign exchange demand of stocks, which in turn will affect the foreign exchange rate. 2 inflation, inflation will affect the change of local currency, thus affecting the exchange rate of foreign exchange. 3 interest rates, changes in domestic interest rates will affect the flow of international capital, rising interest rates will attract capital inflows, while falling interest rates will make international capital outflows. Economic growth will make the local currency appreciate, which will affect the exchange rate changes of foreign exchange. Government policies, obviously monetary policy and fiscal policy. The changes of these two policies will directly affect the foreign exchange rate, and then affect international trade. 6 psychological expectations, this is like the previous argument that RMB can't break 7. After breaking 7, we can see that the RMB has depreciated by several percentage points in a short time, and the speed here is extremely fast. 7 foreign exchange speculation, the more obvious is the series of currency wars, such as defending the exchange rate of Hong Kong and so on. To sum up, the fluctuation of foreign exchange rate is influenced by many factors, and it is more obvious that we need to pay attention to the pricing method of RMB, otherwise it will be counterproductive.