The EU still maintains a slow growth momentum. Except for the rapid growth in Germany, other major economies are lacking, but this is also in line with their normal growth trend. Countries caught in sovereign debt crisis can hardly maintain positive growth, which leads financial markets to question their solvency and the risk of debt default rises again. The biggest problem in the EU is the high inflation rate caused by the rising prices of resource products. The European Central Bank recently raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, which is the first time since the outbreak of the financial crisis. However, considering the slow economic growth and the possible impact of raising interest rates on highly indebted countries, the European Central Bank indicated that it would not raise interest rates further in the short term. It is estimated that the EU's economic growth rate will reach11.5%-2% in 201year.
At the beginning of the year, the market generally expected that the Japanese economy would perform well at 20 1 1. However, the earthquake and tsunami temporarily interrupted the industrial production in the affected areas, and the nuclear leakage incident further affected Japan's domestic consumption and investment confidence, indicating that the impact of this disaster on Japan's economy has a long-term trend. Although the Japanese government will continue to adopt loose fiscal and monetary policies to maintain economic growth, it is estimated that the annual growth rate of the Japanese economy is only between 1% and 1.5%. The impact of the earthquake in Japan on the global economy is mainly reflected in the supply chain, especially in automobile, steel, electronics and other industries. For example, the production of some automobile enterprises in the United States and China has been affected by the reduction or interruption of the supply of Japanese-made parts. Generally speaking, the earthquake in Japan may make the global economic growth rate slightly lower than originally expected, but it will not affect the general trend of world economic recovery.
Emerging economies will continue to maintain rapid growth, and the current growth rate and momentum have returned to the normal state before the crisis. The rise in commodity prices has promoted the economic growth of resource and energy exporting countries, and the foreign exchange income obtained by these countries has returned to other emerging economies and developing countries through expanding imports and foreign investment. Emerging economies have once again shown an all-round growth trend before the financial crisis broke out. The strong growth of investment and consumption in emerging economies has also become an important factor to promote the export growth of some developed economies. For example, in 20 10, the contribution of emerging economies and developing countries to the export growth of the United States and Japan reached 66% and 77% respectively. Although recently, major emerging economies have tightened their macroeconomic policies to cope with inflationary pressures, they have not had a significant impact on economic growth, indicating that the growth trend of emerging economies is relatively healthy. It is estimated that the growth rate of 20 1 1 emerging economies and developing countries will reach about 6%, which is lower than 20 10, but still significantly higher than that of developed economies.
Although the economic growth rate in the United States is not bad, the employment situation is still grim, and the real estate market continues to be sluggish.
The current inflation level in the United States is relatively moderate, and there is little pressure to raise interest rates.
The loose monetary policy in the United States also has financial and exchange rate considerations.
The United States is less likely to raise interest rates this year.
This round of global excess liquidity and rising commodity prices are closely related to loose monetary policy in the United States. If the United States enters the interest rate hike cycle, global liquidity may reverse, and even lead to financial and economic turmoil in some emerging economies with large asset bubbles and large external capital inflows. The future direction of American monetary policy is worthy of attention.
Affected by rising inflationary pressures, the European Central Bank recently raised interest rates, and the US quantitative easing policy will expire at the end of June. This round of global excess liquidity and rising commodity prices are closely related to loose monetary policy in the United States. If the United States enters the interest rate hike cycle, global liquidity may reverse, and even lead to financial and economic turmoil in some emerging economies with large asset bubbles and large external capital inflows. The future direction of American monetary policy is worthy of attention.
We judge that the United States will maintain a relatively loose monetary policy before the end of 20 1 1, and the scale of quantitative easing may gradually shrink, but it will not make a decision to raise interest rates easily. This is based on the following reasons:
First of all, despite the good economic growth in the United States, the employment situation is still grim, and the real estate market continues to slump. According to the current monthly employment creation rate in the United States, the unemployment rate in the United States will remain above 8% by the end of the year, and may remain above 7% by the end of 20 12, far higher than the normal level. American real estate prices are still falling, and new home sales are at an all-time low. In order to maintain economic growth, it is necessary for the United States to maintain a relatively loose monetary policy.
Secondly, the current inflation level in the United States is relatively moderate, and there is little pressure to raise interest rates. Affected by rising commodity prices, especially oil prices, the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States rose by 3.2% in April. However, the Fed's inflation target mainly focuses on excluding the core CPI of energy and food prices, while the core CPI only increased by 1.3% year-on-year. Moreover, the goal of the Fed's loose monetary policy is to create inflation, and tightening monetary policy will only lag behind rather than lead.
Third, the loose monetary policy of the United States also has financial and exchange rate considerations. The balance of US Treasury bonds is 14 trillion US dollars, and a 25 basis point increase in interest rates means that interest expenses will increase by 35 billion US dollars. In addition, the loose monetary policy weakens the exchange rate of the US dollar and has a positive effect on stimulating US exports. The narrowing of the trade deficit has become an important factor in the recent economic growth of the United States. For these two reasons, the Fed will not tighten monetary policy too quickly.
Since the beginning of this year, the overall rise in commodity prices has brought certain inflationary pressures to countries.
The continuous rise in commodity prices shows that demand-side factors may be the main role.
Commodity prices will remain high.
In the medium and long term, factors such as relatively loose monetary policy in developed countries, weak dollar adjustment and sustained and rapid growth in emerging economies have not changed, and commodity prices will resume their upward trend after certain adjustments.
20 1 1 Since the beginning of the year, the prices of bulk commodities, especially oil prices, have brought certain inflationary pressures to various countries.
The rise in oil prices is composed of several factors: First, the political instability in the Middle East and North Africa has brought a "risk premium" to oil prices. Judging from the price difference between American West Texas crude oil and British Brent crude oil, this "risk premium" is around 15 USD. Second, the "pricing effect" brought by the continued weakening of the US dollar. Since the end of 20 10, the nominal dollar index has depreciated by about 4%, which makes the price of oil and other commodities denominated in dollars rise. It is estimated that the impact on the price increase will be around $5. Third, the world economy has maintained a recovery trend, and the long-term growth prospects of emerging economies are promising, providing demand-side support for the rise in commodity prices such as oil. The oil price of 20 10 can hardly exceed $85 most of the time, but with the strengthening of world economic recovery, the oil price has reached $95 before the turmoil in the Middle East. At the same time, the prices of other commodities have continued to rise, indicating that demand-side factors may be the main role.
Recently, commodity prices have been adjusted to a certain extent. The reasons for this situation include: the strengthening of the US dollar, rising inflationary pressures, tightening of macroeconomic policies in various countries, and profit-taking by investors. In the short term, falling commodity prices will help ease the pressure of rising prices in various countries. However, in the medium and long term, factors such as relatively loose monetary policy in developed countries, weak dollar adjustment and sustained and rapid growth in emerging economies have not changed, and commodity prices will resume their upward trend after certain adjustments. After adjustment, economic globalization continues to develop at an unprecedented speed and scale, and the dependence of the global economy continues to rise. The global redistribution of global capital and production technology factors has caused great and profound changes in the global political and economic structure. The current international economic situation has seven characteristics. (1) The world economy is growing rapidly. The economic development of developed countries such as the United States, euro zone countries and Japan has kept the world economy growing at a high speed, and the economies of developing countries have shown a trend of mutual promotion and step-by-step development. In 2007, the world economy will still maintain a growth rate of nearly 4%. The American economy has experienced steady ups and downs. In 2006, the export volume of the United States was surpassed by Germany, and the information index was lower than that of Northern Europe. The subprime mortgage crisis has eroded and decomposed the economic advantages of the United States, and its negative impact is still expanding. Major western countries are facing the strongest external competition since industrialization. Eurasia has become the main stage of the world economy. According to the statistics of the World Bank, Eurasia's economic aggregate accounts for 62% of the world's total, and its accumulated wealth is twice that of the United States. In 2006, the gross domestic product of "new Europe" countries almost doubled compared with 2003. At the same time, developing countries, which account for 80% of the world's population, have entered a period of rapid economic growth, strengthened their position in international trade, international investment and international division of labor, further increased their influence on the world economy, and changed the growth pattern of the world economy. The total economic output of developing countries accounts for about 20% of the world, and its contribution rate to world economic growth has risen to 30%. (2) With the development and promotion of financial innovation, especially financial derivatives, the degree of financial integration has improved, and the global financial industry has experienced explosive growth. The disorderly flow and speculation of huge international capital not only cause great damage to the economy of developing countries, but also make it difficult for developed countries to be immune to it. According to the latest report of McKinsey & Company, the total core assets of the global financial industry have reached 140 trillion US dollars. The capital market has further become the main body of the global financial market. The proportion of bank assets in the total global financial assets decreased from 42% in 1980 to 27% in 2005, and financial assets were further concentrated in developed countries. The proportion of financial assets in the gross national product of developed countries jumped to 330% on average. On the one hand, the trend of "economic financialization" promotes the effective allocation of global resources, on the other hand, it also increases the instability, speculation and risk of the global economy. (3) The mobility of international capital market and labor market is enhanced, and the global flow of production factors forms a global market. The international capital market is more mature, and there are more and more forms of capital flow. The global labor market is increasingly integrated. According to the statistics of the International Labor Organization, 700 million people from developing countries will enter the global labor market in the next 10 year. The formation of the global industrial chain and the rational and irrational allocation of resources are further revealed, and the unbalanced global growth model is shaping a new global economic structure. Generally speaking, the liberalization of international trade and investment financial markets has enabled the flow of production factors to achieve "optimal allocation" on a global scale. From a national perspective, the income distribution and social cost distribution of globalization are seriously unbalanced, the gap between poor and rich countries is widening, and the polarization between losers and winners is intensifying. The rate of return on capital has reached a new high, while the rate of return on labor is getting lower and lower, leading to inequality among countries. Developed countries dominate the current international trade, investment, finance and international division of labor system. In contrast, the population of developing countries accounts for 3/4 of the world, and the total economic output only accounts for 1/4. Black Africa will not succeed in getting rid of poverty until at least 2047. In the northern camp, the United States, Europe and Japan are the three pillars of the international economy, but because the United States pursues economic unilateralism and attempts to monopolize international economic decision-making, conflicts of economic interests among the three parties occur from time to time. The gap between the economic development levels of the southern camps has widened, the basic demands and interests of economic development issues have been greatly divided, and South-South cooperation has shown obvious diversification and high complexity. (4) Emerging market economies are becoming increasingly concrete, accelerating their integration into the global economic system and injecting new vitality into economic globalization. The market economy system of a large number of emerging developing countries is becoming more and more mature. The economies of East Asia, Latin America and the Commonwealth of Independent States have accelerated in an all-round way, while those of Africa and the Middle East have taken off. These countries' domestic capital markets are developing rapidly, their dependence on foreign investment is obviously declining, their awareness of protecting and utilizing their own energy and resources is strengthened, and some export-oriented developing countries are gradually diversifying their trade structure. Emerging developing countries such as "BRIC" and "New Diamond 1 1" continue to lead the economic growth of developing countries, become the strongest economic growth point in the future, and promote the development that affects globalization. In terms of exchange rate, the GDP of India, Russia and Brazil all exceeded the 1 trillion dollar mark this year, and they were promoted to 12 before the world economy. From 200 1 to 2007, the ranking of China, Russian and Indian in global GDP, export, foreign exchange reserves and total stock market value jumped by 4 places on average. The proportion of Asian countries' exports to the United States dropped from 25.5% in 1993 to 6.5% at present. It is worth noting that the attractiveness of developing countries to international capital continues to increase. Mutual investment among developing countries is growing rapidly, mainly in Asia and Africa. At present, the global foreign exchange reserves total 5.4 trillion US dollars, most of which are in the hands of developing countries. Recently, developing countries began to invest part of their foreign exchange reserves in the form of "sovereign wealth funds", which may be as high as $65,438 +0.5 trillion. The main direction of investment is the securities market of developed countries and transnational mergers and acquisitions, and the related trends will have an important impact on the international capital market. (5) The development models of North and South countries have increased, multilateral coordination in the economic field has gradually become a trend, emerging powers have accelerated their rise, and economic power has accelerated "multipolarization". Under the background of economic globalization, developed countries and developing countries use each other, and the relationship between North and South is in a complicated state. The rapid revival of Russia and the accelerated revitalization of India have broken China's unique situation after the Cold War and initially formed the first echelon of emerging powers. Some developing countries have entered or approached the ranks of economic sub-powers, and the need to maintain the stability of the world economic system and trade liberalization is constantly increasing. Their common interests with developed countries have increased and their interdependence has deepened. Therefore, it is increasingly important and urgent to conduct dialogue and cooperation in the economic and financial fields. "G8 +5" has become an important high-end platform to promote North-South dialogue. The Group of Twenty (G20) covers the most important developed and developing countries in the world, and has a strong "North-South" representation. In recent years, it has played an active role in coordinating the positions of developing countries and developed countries in responding to the financial crisis and promoting the stable development of world economy and finance. Canada's initiative to establish a "global summit forum" within the framework of the G-20 further reflects the trend of the international community to strengthen multilateral dialogue and coordination. (VI) Various regional or bilateral free trade arrangements have developed rapidly, international trade and transnational investment have become active again, and negotiations on free trade areas are in the ascendant. It has become fashionable for emerging powers to form economic alliances with traditional powers through free trade agreements and other forms. Regional economic cooperation is not only the inevitable product of countries following the trend of the times, but also a reasonable choice for relevant countries to slow down the disorderly impact of economic globalization based on regional development. The trend of regional economic cooperation and regional collectivization is accompanied by the development of economic globalization. This benign economic and trade interaction has promoted benign political development as a whole, and the possibility of a big country restarting the war is almost zero. Regional cooperation in East Asia, Latin America, Africa and other regions, with developing countries as the main body, has flourished. The momentum of regional cooperation among some developing countries has been strengthened and has become an important link connecting cooperation networks in different regions. Brazil, India and South Africa have established a three-country cooperation framework, and the economic ties between Asia and Africa, Asia and Latin America, and Latin America and the Middle East have become increasingly close. All countries are trying to accelerate the construction of regional groups through the mode of strong alliance and complementary advantages, realize the optimal allocation of markets and resources, and seek to occupy a favorable position in the new world economic structure. The United States is fully promoting the establishment of "Free Trade Area of the Americas", the European Union is taking advantage of its eastward expansion to accelerate the integration of finance and services in the region, MERCOSUR and the Andean Community, two major economic organizations in Latin America, have announced the acceleration of free trade negotiations, and East Asia 10+3 and Shanghai Cooperation Organization have developed in depth as two pillar mechanisms in Asia. In the future, international economic relations will gradually shift from contest and competition among countries to competition among regional economic groups, and the struggle and coordination around global economic and trade policies and financial system will mainly be carried out among economic groups. (VII) The price of international energy resources has risen sharply, and the pace of adjustment of the international energy pattern has accelerated. The competition for strategic resources such as energy has become the biggest uncertain factor affecting international economic relations. Some resource-rich countries, especially those rich in oil and gas resources, seized the opportunity of rising prices of resource products, not only made huge profits from them, but also enhanced their status and influence in the international economic system. In recent years, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela and the United Arab Emirates have advanced by an average of three places in the global GDP and per capita GDP rankings. Some oil-producing countries have strengthened their control over domestic oil resources and reduced the control of developed countries over their own oil resources. Oil-producing countries such as Iran and Venezuela regard energy as the main bargaining chip in the international struggle and openly "challenge" the United States. The United States currently controls nearly 70% of the world's oil resources in Central Asia, the Middle East, West Africa and North America. The global energy strategic pattern is obviously inclined to the United States, but in the world energy market pattern, Russia's influence plays an important role, and the strategic influence of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can not be underestimated. Japan strives to stabilize traditional oil sources and actively expand new channels. Countries such as the European Union actively increase strategic oil reserves and seek energy cooperation. With the strong recovery and prosperity of the world economy, the dependence of all parties on energy will increase day by day. Around oil and gas resources, transportation pipelines and market prices, big countries such as the United States, Europe and Japan will also launch a fierce international energy battle. At the same time, with the rapid growth of energy demand and the pursuit of energy security in emerging developing countries, related energy enterprises have developed rapidly, breaking the monopoly position of enterprises in developed countries in the international energy industry. At present, the world economy is in the rising period of a new economic cycle. In the next five years ~ 10, the world economy will develop faster than in the 1980s and 1990s. The rise of developing powers such as China, Indian, Russian and Brazil will accelerate the adjustment of international economic relations and the evolution of the pattern, and the trend of multipolarization will become increasingly obvious. The "twin deficits" of American economy makes the development of world economy unbalanced. The depreciation of the US dollar and soaring oil prices have increased global economic risks, but the overall trend of the world economy is still improving. Current world economic situation and its influence on China. As the world economy keeps growing, China's foreign trade market space is still relatively large. 2. The unbalanced development of the world economy has a great impact on China's processing trade, and the general trade has maintained rapid growth. . 3. The high unemployment rate in major economies aggravates the risk of world economic friction, and most of the trade frictions initiated by countries such as Europe and America are initiated by the unemployment sector. 4. High oil prices have aggravated the import cost of China, which may lead to cost-driven inflation. 5. Adjust the focus of foreign investment policy according to the trend of foreign direct investment in the world. We will shift the focus to the directional development of some service industries, give priority to the development of service trade of productive services, and focus on the development of export-oriented service industries such as transportation and commercial distribution services related to trade in goods. There are five outstanding problems in the current economic operation-there are still many restrictive factors to further increase grain output and farmers' income. There is limited room for the grain purchase price to continue to rise. The prices of agricultural materials such as chemical fertilizers remain high. It is prone to floods. -There are still many new projects in fixed assets investment, and the investment structure is still unreasonable. Because the institutional reasons for investment expansion have not been fundamentally eliminated, investment growth in some places is still too fast. -the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises has declined. The benefits of the industry have been clearly differentiated. The profits of coal, oil exploitation, ferrous and nonferrous metals and other extractive industries increased rapidly, while the profits of building materials, petroleum processing, transportation equipment, chemical fiber and other industries declined more. -The overall situation of coal, electricity and oil transportation is still tight. Because the growth mode has not changed fundamentally, the utilization rate of resources is low and the waste is serious, the contradiction between energy and resource constraints is still outstanding. -The situation of production safety is still grim. The phenomenon of illegal production against the wind still exists, with frequent serious accidents and frequent accidents such as road traffic and dangerous chemicals. Energy conservation is the fundamental way to solve the energy problem in China. China has a large population and relatively insufficient energy resources, and its per capita possession is far below the world average. The per capita remaining recoverable reserves of coal, oil and natural gas are only 58.6%, 7.69% and 7.05% of the world average respectively. At present, China is in an important stage of accelerating industrialization and urbanization. The consumption intensity of energy resources is high, the consumption scale is expanding, and the contradiction between energy supply and demand is becoming increasingly prominent. In the future, with the further expansion of economic scale, energy demand will continue to grow rapidly. Therefore, energy is a prominent bottleneck restricting China's economic and social development at present and for a long time to come, which is directly related to the smooth realization of the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way. Energy conservation is the essential requirement of Scientific Outlook on Development. China is rich in coal but short of oil. Among the fossil resources that replace oil, coal can meet the demand matching with the shortage of oil in the near and medium term10 million tons, that is, synthesizing oil by liquefied coal is one of the most practical and feasible ways to realize the basic self-sufficiency of petroleum products in China. Coal can be converted into gasoline and diesel by direct or indirect liquefaction. Direct coal liquefaction has harsh operating conditions and strong dependence on coal types. Indirect liquefaction of coal is to make syngas from coal gasification first, and then convert it into gasoline and diesel oil through catalytic synthesis. The operating conditions of indirect coal liquefaction are mild, which is almost independent of coal type. The utilization of nuclear fission energy is more and more extensive, and the related technology is improving day by day, which is a feasible and reliable scheme to solve the energy shortage problem in the next century. The construction, operation and maintenance of nuclear fission power stations, the exploitation of nuclear materials and the disposal of nuclear waste will form a huge industrial chain in the next century. The utilization of nuclear fission energy is limited by the limited reserves of nuclear materials on the earth and the difficulties and dangers of human nuclear waste disposal. Using nuclear fusion energy may be the most important way for mankind to finally solve the energy problem. Sunlight is the energy released by nuclear fusion of hydrogen in the sun. The main raw material of nuclear fusion is inexhaustible deuterium contained in the vast sea water, and its product is inert gas helium. Therefore, there is neither shortage of raw materials nor pollution problems such as nuclear waste or nuclear leakage in nuclear fusion. The international environment is complex and changeable. At present, the international environment is complex and changeable, and peace and development are the mainstream, but the factors that affect peaceful development still exist, such as power politics, hegemonism, terrorism, regional conflicts, nuclear weapons proliferation, natural disasters, transnational crimes, diseases, smuggling and drug trafficking, etc. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen international cooperation. It is of great significance for China's diplomacy to judge the current international situation and communicate with big countries. At present, the competition of comprehensive national strength among countries is becoming increasingly fierce, and the relationship between countries is cooperation and competition, dependence and containment. The overall stability of the international situation provides opportunities for the development of China, but hegemonism and power politics still exist, and China still faces severe challenges. China should properly handle its relations with big countries, especially with the United States, Russia, the European Union and Japan. The unilateral policy of the United States has been frustrated and it actively seeks international cooperation, but the strategy of the United States to dominate the world has not changed. On the one hand, China should expand cooperation and increase the positive factors in the diplomacy between the two countries; On the other hand, we must adhere to principles and safeguard interests. The continuous eastward expansion of NATO has seriously affected Russia's expansion in Europe, and Russia has turned its attention to Asia. At the same time, Russia is rich in natural resources, which is of great significance to China in terms of energy supply and border issues. The EU is actively strengthening its strategic cooperation with the United States, strengthening its dialogue with China, and seeking cooperation with China on major power issues. At the same time, we also saw the huge market brought by the rapid economic development in China. Because Japan can't face historical issues correctly, it actively expands and establishes its status as a big country, and actively cooperates with the United States to contain China. The opposition between China and Japan is obvious, and it is not easy to handle Sino-Japanese relations well, but the long-term rigidity of Sino-Japanese relations will not be conducive to the development of China. At the same time, we should properly handle the relations with neighboring countries and create a more favorable external environment for China's economic development and social progress.