The impact of the p>28 financial crisis on China's economy began with the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, and then went to the "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac" crisis in the United States, and then Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch was acquired, AIG, the largest insurance company in the United States, was rescued by capital injection of 85 billion dollars on the verge of bankruptcy, and the global stock market continued to fall, indicating that the coldest winter on Wall Street has not yet arrived. Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, believes that the United States is falling into "once in a century" finance. In today's global financial and economic integration, we must carefully analyze the impact of the US financial crisis on China's economy and take targeted measures to avoid greater losses. Monetary Policy for Economic Growth in Financial Crisis 1. The economic growth rate in China is slowing down obviously. The slowdown of China's economic growth this year and next will become the general trend, and the slowdown of export and investment in fixed assets is an inevitable trend. According to the annual report "Asia Development Outlook Update 28" released by the Asian Development Bank on the 16th, it is predicted that the economic growth rate of China will drop from 11.9% in 27 to 1% in 28. In 29, China's economic growth rate will further drop to 9.5%. The main reasons are as follows: (1) due to the slowdown of American economic growth, the slowdown of export growth far exceeds expectations; (2) The rising inflation rate will make the government adopt a stricter monetary policy, the growth rate of fixed assets investment will slow down, the tide of enterprise closure will appear, and the growth of industrial profits will slow down greatly; ③ The cooling of the real estate market under the credit crunch may lead to a more serious crisis than in 28; (4) Under macro-control, the growth rate of investment in real estate, steel, cement, aluminum alloy and automobile industry has slowed down; It is difficult to complete 1 million new jobs every year. Migrant workers have returned to the countryside to farm, and the hidden unemployment in rural areas has increased greatly; ⑥ Due to the transmission factor that the oil price and electricity price may be further raised next year, the forecast of CPI increase in China in 28 is raised from the previous 5.5% to 7%. The forecast value in 29 was raised from 5% in April 28 to 5.5%; ⑦ The growth rate of residents' consumption is declining, and relying on consumption to stimulate economic growth is equal to "painting cakes to satisfy hunger". The increase of income instability, the negative wealth effect of the stock market and the further widening income gap between urban and rural residents have restrained residents' desire for consumption. Second, the central bank's monetary policy is in a dilemma. At present, the central bank's monetary policy is in a dilemma between "maintaining growth" and "controlling inflation". Under the global financial crisis, China's economic growth has been restrained, and it is inevitable that the growth rate will slow down. However, the "sudden braking" under the rapid growth for 1 years in a row will lead to the closure of a large number of enterprises and employment difficulties, which will affect social stability and harmony. However, the relaxation of monetary policy has made the already serious PPI and CPI more rampant. The "two-rate" downward adjustment of the market announced on the 15th is ungrateful. Similarly, whether the RMB continues to appreciate or depreciate against the US dollar is also a "dilemma" choice. Three, the operating efficiency of the banking industry in China is difficult to grow. The main reasons are as follows: ① Under the economic downturn, the business expansion space of banks has narrowed; (2) Under the policy of increasing residents' income instability and monetary tightening, the contradiction between a large increase in deposits and a decrease in loan increments is prominent, and the benchmark loan interest rate is lowered by .27 percentage points; (3) the economic downturn has brought about the bankruptcy of industries and enterprises, and the rebound pressure of non-performing loans of banks is great (for example, real estate loans are specifically analyzed below); (4) After the asset bubble burst, the bank's collateral shrank greatly, the mortgage rate of the loan exceeded the "warning line", and the second repayment source was lost. Loans such as real estate mortgage, land mortgage and stock pledge are the most obvious; ⑤ Losses caused by holding American subordinated debt or loans to bankrupt American companies. For example, China Bank Group * * * holds bonds issued by Lehman Brothers Holding Company and its subsidiaries of 75.62 million US dollars; Industrial and Commercial Bank of China lent Lehman a loan of 5 million US dollars; China Merchants Bank lent 8 million dollars to Lehman; ⑥ China Commercial Bank's overseas acquisitions and investments in 28 were aggravated by the crisis, and the past "bargain-hunting" behavior became the current "temporary" result. According to Goldman Sachs' forecast, the profits of H-share Chinese banks in Hong Kong will drop by about 4%-8% in 29. The profit of the smaller joint-stock A-share banks has dropped by 8%-13%. Fourth, any rescue behavior of central banks will "fail". In the last two days, global central banks and financial regulatory authorities, led by the Federal Reserve, have shown their magic power and injected more than 3 billion dollars of liquidity into the financial system. In the past two days, the Federal Reserve has continuously injected $12 billion into the market through repurchase agreements, which is the largest capital injection since "911". After the United States, many central banks, such as the euro zone, Britain, Japan, Australia and Switzerland, have also taken continuous capital injection measures. In Asia, Chinese mainland and Taiwan Province have successively announced the reduction of deposit reserve ratio or loan interest rate, while Indonesian has announced the reduction of overnight repo rate. However, the efforts of central banks did not receive immediate results. The Dow, the S&P 5, the Nasdaq, the European stock market and the London stock market all fell, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share financial stocks were under heavy selling pressure, and the 1-year cost line of the Shanghai Composite Index was also in jeopardy. After investors' confidence drops to the freezing point, any rescue measures will become a "short-lived" "green landscape" under heavy selling pressure. However, a proactive fiscal policy is needed, and today's unilateral collection of stamp duty is a good behavior to save the market. After investors lose confidence, it is best to abolish stamp duty completely. Fifth, the real "winter" of the real estate industry is coming, and it is tantamount to "dreaming" to hope that the government will save the housing market. In the economic downturn caused by the global financial crisis, the real "winter" of China's real estate industry and the risk of bank non-performing loans will begin to appear in the end of 28 and the first half of 29. In the future, the continuous decline in the transaction volume of the real estate industry, the weakening of buyers' confidence and the wait-and-see attitude of holding money, the continuous increase in vacancy rate and the decline in gross profit margin will cause developers to encounter cash flow problems, and the risk of real estate non-performing loans in the banking industry will be greatly improved. According to the analysis of Goldman Sachs' loan records from banks to 65 real estate developers, since the adjustment of the property market in October last year, the phenomenon of insufficient cash flow of developers has gradually been exposed; However, developers still attract funds from private investors at home and abroad at higher interest rates. In order to raise cash, domestic big-name star real estate developers Vanke and Evergrande are competing to reduce prices. It is obvious that the housing prices in the Pearl River Delta cities have fallen into a downward trend, especially in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Huizhou. China government agencies said on the 16th that the house price index of 7 cities tracked in August fell for the first time compared with the previous month, and the Shanghai area fell by .2%. At present, the phenomenon of falling house prices is becoming more and more common in all parts of China, and real estate investment is further shrinking. In addition, Morgan Stanley, which once invested actively in Shanghai real estate, now wants to sell some of the top luxury houses. Recently, Morgan Stanley's real estate fund put two luxury houses in Shanghai for auction, including more than 1 commercial houses in Xintiandi. In addition, Morgan Stanley was originally interested in buying the floor of Shanghai World Financial Center, the tallest building in Shanghai, and then gave up. Combined with the "financial crisis" in the United States, Morgan Stanley's auction of China real estate may be to prepare for a potential liquidity crisis, and it may also indicate that some foreign capitals are ready to withdraw from the China real estate market, which will "add insult to injury" to the China real estate market in the severe winter-first, the developers face a solvency crisis, then the weak real estate developers close down, and then the domestic banks are affected. The adoption rate of Xingqing's answer: 33.3% At 1: 53 on January 23, 29, the violent financial storm suddenly set off by Wall Street quickly swept the United States and the global economy associated with the United States. The financial storm has gradually evolved into a financial crisis and spread to the real economy. If it is not handled properly, the financial crisis may lead to an economic crisis. The terrible thing about the economic crisis is that it may turn into a social crisis or even a full-scale political crisis. In the face of this sudden financial crisis, we may be concerned about two issues: First, how big is the impact of the financial crisis on China's economy? Second, how should China cope with the international economic storm in its future development? Under the background of economic globalization, the trend of China's economy merging with the world economy is further strengthened. Undoubtedly, the severe financial crisis in the United States will definitely have an impact on China's economy. The first level of this influence is dominant. First of all, many investment institutions, especially Chinese financial enterprises, have suffered losses with the collapse or sluggish operation of investment banks in the United States; In addition, the joint venture or cooperation between some enterprises going abroad and local enterprises in the United States will lead to a certain reduction in profits due to the crisis. Secondly, the Wall Street financial crisis caused the world economic recession to a certain extent, and suppressed the consumer demand in the American and European markets, thus affecting the growth of China's export industry. Another level of influence is implicit, that is, it is achieved through continuous economic transmission. For example, the US government's rescue of the market and the impending US economic recession will become the motivation for the depreciation of the US dollar. The change of exchange rate not only weakens the growth of export profits of export-oriented enterprises in China, but also increases export costs, and will directly lead to exchange losses. In China's long-term reliance on investment, export and consumption to promote economic growth, the latter two powers will be squeezed by the transmission of the Wall Street financial crisis. Compared with the financial crisis in 1997-1998, we have more ability and strength to cope with this financial crisis today. First of all, China has huge foreign exchange reserves. Secondly, China's fiscal revenue is abundant. These have created favorable conditions for stimulating the economy and avoiding a sharp decline in the economy. At the same time, we should also realize that the financial crisis has limited impact on China's economy. From the perspective of the power composition of China's current economic growth, the macroeconomic operation shows that at present, the power to promote China's economic growth has not been fundamentally weakened by the Wall Street financial turmoil, and China's economic fundamentals have not changed because of the Wall Street financial turmoil. Judging from the economic correlation between China and the United States, although the economic development of the two countries is intertwined, China's economic involvement in the United States is not deep after all, China's financial system is relatively independent and stable, China's industrial and agricultural production situation is stable, domestic demand is strong, and the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth is increasing day by day. The China Municipal Government has taken effective measures to actively respond to the financial crisis: it has launched a 4 trillion investment plan, and local governments have also launched large-scale investment plans one after another. At the same time, some more active fiscal and financial policies have been introduced one after another, which is beneficial to stimulate consumption, expand domestic demand, and promote the transformation of China's economy into a domestic demand-driven one. In the face of the financial crisis, the most important thing is confidence. We believe in the government's ability to handle the crisis, and have confidence in the fundamentals of China's economic development. The confidence of each of us is the best way to overcome the crisis. I believe this crisis will definitely turn into a new starting point for China's economic take-off!