Under normal circumstances, if investors believe in "value investment", they will devalue short-term methods such as "technical analysis". In fact, no matter what kind of technical analysis, it will not be useless. Because the fluctuation of the stock market itself is a group movement of people, and people's emotional fluctuation is in line with psychological laws and there are traces to follow.

Looking at all the stock technical analysis methods in the market, three factors will be involved: price, volume and time. Market traders deal with all kinds of information every day, and reflect their own cognitive and psychological factors in the transaction. The cognitive changes and emotional fluctuations of market traders will be written in these three factors. Technical analysis is based on a large number of transaction statistics. In the process of statistics and research, the group behavior of traders will be "recompiled" intentionally or unintentionally.

Because of statistical significance, there is a general rule in technical analysis, that is, the more participants, the greater the market value of stocks or indexes, the more individual differences can be eliminated, and the more technical analysis can be used. At the same time, the shorter the sample time, the greater the randomness of short-term fluctuations; The longer the sample time, the greater the statistical significance of technical analysis, which is why the shorter the trend, the more difficult it is to judge.

Technical analysis has several characteristics:

First of all, graphics will be self-fulfilling and self-invalid.

When a technical analysis is recognized by more traders in the market, traders will also follow the instructions of the technical analysis, thus promoting the stock to run in the direction predicted by the technical analysis. At the same time, no one wants to be the last fool, because there is an end to ups and downs. Traders always want to get ahead of others and then retreat early. At the same time, another group of more conservative traders want to retreat before this group of traders ... and advance layer by layer, which eventually makes the whole technical analysis system fail.

Second, technical analysis is usually vague and confusing.

At the same time, different investors use the same technical analysis method, and may even get diametrically opposite results. Technical analysts add their own emotional factors in actual combat, and those who "place their hopes" on the stock market will naturally "read" the result that the stock market will rise from technical analysis. And vice versa, Dallas to the auditorium is like "four unlike". He who has a horse in his heart thinks it is like a horse, and he who has a deer in his heart thinks it is like a deer.

Third, technical analysis has a certain "retrospectivity".

In other words, it is easy to get the success points of various technical analysis by integrating technical analysis into past stock trends. However, it is always right and wrong to use technical analysis to predict the future stock trend. Take the megatrend as an example-after a wave of rising, the index has been adjusted back to the height of 1/3.

If the index stops falling and stabilizes at this time and continues to rise to a higher level, then the callback of 1/3 is only an intermediate turn-back in the long-term upward trend. If it continues to fall at this time, and finally even falls below the low point before the index rises, then the callback of 1/3 becomes the first half of the long-term downward trend. No matter from which angle it is analyzed, it conforms to Dow theory.

For example, after the bear market fell for a period of time, there was a short-term rebound. As long as the rebound lasts for a few days, the short-term growth rate will be faster than the long-term growth rate. When it reaches a certain threshold, MACD golden fork will appear. If you buy at this time, the stock price may rise for a few days, or you may immediately turn around and destroy the graphic form of MACD gold fork.

If necessary, you can simplify the derivation of the previous paragraph-when the general trend of the stock market rises, the MACD golden fork is effective; When the general trend of the stock market is down, MACD gold fork is a failed purchase. (Is it a little derailed? )

Fourth, most technical indicators are difficult to distinguish between reversal and rebound. The top of the bull market is still a short-term correction, but it is more effective in unilateral shocks.

In other words, it is difficult for technical analysis to distinguish between bear bottom and cow top.

Fifth, technical analysis is mostly a summary of the time, price and volume of the previous stock market. But it can't include the influence of news.

The market fluctuates greatly, and there are similarities and differences in each cycle. Every news has a different impact on traders. Technical analysis mostly uses statistical results of similarity, and cannot absorb exceptions of differences.

Most successful technology traders have a kind of thing called "disk feeling", which is nothing more than a psychological hint formed by long-term trading experience. After the subconscious treatment of "disk feeling", traders can feel the difference of different news influences. But unfortunately, the influence of the news will spread to every market participant, and it will change with the fluctuation of stock price.

It is impossible to synthesize the psychological conditions of all market participants. The "sense of disk" is based on the "subconscious" of technical traders themselves, is a revision of technical analysis, and is based on the subconscious prediction of the psychological state of other market participants. This estimate may be correct or wrong.

6. The more times the technical analysis is correct, the greater the risk eventually accumulated.

Throughout the famous speculative traders at home and abroad, there have been glory and bankruptcy. It is precisely because of human greed. Every time the technical judgment is correct, it will strengthen the self-confidence of the technical analyst, and at the same time, it will also produce the regret of "if I had known it was correct, why not gamble more". In the end, it will make the positions and leverage of technology traders bigger and bigger. Unless technology investors are always right, they will eventually lose to everyone.

Seven, technical analysis is to study the movement of the group. The more groups there are, the more individual differences can offset each other.