(A) Analysis of the supply of futures commodities
The famous saying of economics is: in the long run, the price of goods will eventually reflect the price of the balance point between supply and demand. Therefore, the supply and demand of commodities have an important impact on commodity futures prices. Basic factor analysis mainly analyzes the relationship between supply and demand. The change of commodity supply and demand and the change of price influence and restrict each other. Commodity prices are inversely proportional to supply, supply increases and prices fall; Supply decreases and prices rise. Commodity prices are directly proportional to demand, demand increases and prices rise; Demand decreases and prices fall. With other factors unchanged, any change in the relationship between supply and demand may affect the change of commodity prices. On the one hand, the change of commodity prices is influenced by the change of supply and demand; On the other hand, changes in commodity prices have an impact on supply and demand in turn: prices rise, supply increases, and demand decreases; As prices fall, supply decreases and demand increases. This interaction and causal relationship between supply and demand and price makes the analysis of commodity supply and demand more complicated, that is, not only the influence of supply and demand changes on prices, but also the reaction of price changes on supply and demand should be considered.
1, opening inventory
Opening inventory refers to the physical quantity of goods accumulated in the previous year or quarter for the society to continue to consume. According to the identity of the inventory owner, it can be divided into producer-supplier inventory, dealer inventory and government reserve. The first two kinds of stocks can be listed and supplied at any time according to price changes, which can be regarded as the actual components of market commodity supply. The purpose of government reserves is to reserve for the overall interests of the whole society, and it will not be easily put on the market because of general price changes. However, when the market supply is seriously insufficient and prices soar, the government may use it to stabilize prices, which will have an important impact on market supply.
2. Output current
Current output refers to the commodity output of this year or this quarter. It is the main body of commodity supply in the market, and its influencing factors are also very complicated. In the short term, it is mainly restricted by production capacity, resources and natural conditions, production costs and government policies. The influencing factors of different commodity production may vary greatly, so it is necessary to analyze the influencing factors of specific commodity production in order to grasp its possible changes more accurately.
3. Imports during this period
The import volume in this period is a supplement to domestic production, and usually changes with the change of supply and demand balance in the domestic market. At the same time, the import volume will also be affected by international and domestic market spreads, exchange rates, national import and export policies and international political factors.
(2) Demand analysis of futures commodities
Commodity market demand refers to the quantity of a commodity that the buyer is willing and able to buy at a certain time, place and price. It usually consists of three parts: domestic consumption, export volume and ending inventory.
1, domestic consumption
Domestic consumption is mainly influenced by the income level or purchasing power of consumers, the number of consumers, the change of consumption structure, the discovery of new uses of goods, the price of substitutes and the convenience of obtaining them. These factors often have a greater impact on the demand and price of futures commodities than the spot market.
2. Analysis of international market demand
Although the stable import volume is large, it has little influence on the international market price, and the unstable import volume is small, but it has great influence on the international market price. The export volume is the quantity of goods produced and processed in China that are sold to foreign markets, and it is one of the important factors that affect the domestic total demand. To analyze its changes, we should comprehensively consider the changes of various factors affecting exports, such as the supply and demand situation in the international and domestic markets, the price comparison between domestic sales and export, the changes of domestic export policies and import policies of importing countries, and the changes of tariffs and exchange rates. For example, China is one of the corn exporting countries, and the corn export volume is an important factor affecting the corn futures price.
3. Ending balance
On the one hand, it is an integral part of commodity demand and a necessary condition for normal social reproduction; On the other hand, it plays a role in balancing short-term supply and demand to a certain extent. When the supply of goods in this period is in short supply, the ending balance will decrease; Otherwise it will increase. Therefore, by analyzing the actual changes of inventory at the end of the current period, we can see the supply and demand of commodities in this period and its influence on the supply and demand and price of commodities in the next period from the perspective of physical movement of commodities.
(C) Factor analysis of economic cycle changes
Commodity market fluctuation is usually closely related to economic fluctuation cycle. Futures prices are no exception. As the futures market is an open market closely linked with the international market, the price fluctuation of the futures market is not only affected by the domestic economic fluctuation cycle, but also by the prosperity of the world economy.
The economic cycle generally consists of four stages: recovery, prosperity, recession and depression. At the beginning of the recovery phase, it was the lowest point of the last cycle, and both output and price were at the lowest level. With the recovery of economy, the recovery of production and the growth of demand, prices have also begun to pick up gradually. The boom stage is the peak stage of the economic cycle. Because the continuous expansion of investment demand and consumer demand exceeds the growth of output, the stimulus price rises rapidly to a higher level. The recession stage appeared after the peak of the economic cycle, and the economy began to decline. Due to shrinking demand, supply greatly exceeded demand, and prices fell rapidly. Depression is the bottom of the economic cycle. Both supply and demand are at a low level, and prices have stopped falling and are at a low level. During the evolution of the whole economic cycle, the price fluctuation lags behind the economic fluctuation slightly. It is of great significance to carefully observe and analyze the stages and characteristics of the economic cycle for correctly grasping the price trend of the futures market.
The stage of economic cycle can be judged by some main economic indicators, such as GDP growth rate, unemployment rate, price index, exchange rate and so on. These are all things that futures traders should pay close attention to.
(d) Analysis of financial and monetary factors.
Commodity futures trading is closely related to financial and money markets. The fluctuation of interest rate and exchange rate directly affects the price change of commodity futures.
1, interest rate
Interest rate adjustment is a macro-control means for the government to tighten or expand the economy. The change of interest rate has great influence on financial derivatives trading, but little influence on commodity futures. For example, since 1994, in order to curb inflation, the People's Bank of China has substantially raised interest rates and increased the subsidy rate for maintaining the value of medium and long-term deposits and government bonds, which has led to the soaring price of government bond futures. On May 1995, the State Council ordered the trading of treasury bonds futures to be suspended.
2. Exchange rate
The futures market is an open market, and futures prices are closely related to commodity prices in the international market. The comparison of commodity prices in the international market inevitably involves the exchange rate of national currencies-exchange rate, that is, the ratio of domestic currency to foreign currency. When the local currency depreciates, even if the price of foreign goods remains unchanged, the price of foreign goods expressed in local currency will rise, and vice versa. Therefore, the fluctuation of exchange rate will inevitably affect the corresponding futures price changes. According to estimates, the depreciation of the US dollar against the Japanese yen 10% will reduce the price of soybean imported by Tokyo Grain Exchange in Japan by about 10%. Similarly, if the RMB depreciates against the US dollar, the domestic soybean futures price will also rise. The monetary policies of major exporting countries, such as the sharp depreciation of the Brazilian real in 1998, have greatly enhanced the export competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans. Relatively speaking, the increase in soybean supply has had a negative impact on soybean prices in Chicago.
(5) Analysis of political and policy factors
Futures market prices are very sensitive to changes in international and domestic political climate and related policies. Political factors mainly refer to the international and domestic political situation, the outbreak of international political events and the resulting changes in the pattern of international relations, the establishment of various international economic and trade organizations and the conclusion of relevant commodity agreements, and various policies and measures adopted by the government for economic intervention. These factors will cause fluctuations in the futures market price.
Internationally, the futures price of a listed product is often influenced by its relevant national policies, including agricultural policy, trade policy, grain policy and reserve policy. , including the International Economic and Trade Organization and its agreements. When analyzing the influence of political factors on futures prices, it should be noted that different commodities are affected to different degrees. For example, when the international situation is tense, the impact on the price of strategic materials is greater than that on other commodities.
(vi) Seasonal factor analysis
Many futures commodities, especially agricultural products, have obvious seasonality, and their prices fluctuate with the changes of seasons.