After the news was announced, offshore RMB rose in the short term, the dollar rose, and the euro and pound fell.
The IMF later confirmed that the weight of RMB in SDR currency basket was 10.92%, which was higher than that of Japanese yen and British pound, but lower than expected. In the preliminary assessment report in July this year, IMF staff estimated that the weight of RMB was 14%- 16%.
The new currency basket will not take effect until 20 16 10 1. In August this year, the IMF announced that it would extend the validity of the current SDR currency basket for nine months, from 65438+February 3 1 to 2065438+September 30, 2006.
Regarding the short-term impact of the use of RMB in the international market, Changyong Rhee, head of the Asia-Pacific Department of the IMF, told the media in a conference call on Monday that there are two completely different views on the future demand of RMB in the market. Some people think that the popularity of RMB will increase after joining SDR, and the demand will increase accordingly. However, some people think that after joining SDR, China's capital market will be more open and there will be capital outflows. Therefore, the influence of both directions exists, and the "net influence" is still difficult to judge at present.
IMF Managing Director Lagarde said, "The decision of the Executive Board to include RMB in the SDR currency basket is an important milestone for China's economic integration into the global financial system. This is an affirmation of the achievements made by the China authorities in reforming the monetary and financial systems in the past few years. "
There is a view in the market that the status of the Australian dollar as a global reserve currency will be affected after the RMB joins the ranks of the IMF reserve currency.
Standard Chartered Bank predicts that the capital flowing into China will reach 1. 1 trillion US dollars in the next five years thanks to the inclusion of RMB in SDR. Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas and Mizuho Bank of Japan all believe that the Australian dollar will be the victim of RMB attracting foreign capital inflows. The Australian dollar, which is regarded by overseas investors as a dual RMB, will fall out of favor accordingly, and the managers who manage foreign exchange reserves may reduce their positions in the Australian dollar. China government bonds will be more popular than Australian government bonds.
Recently, some people think that although the Australian dollar has become the best performing currency in developed countries this quarter, this upward trend is doomed to fail, and one loser of RMB's inclusion in SDR is the Australian dollar. In this regard, Shahab Jalinoos, chief global foreign exchange strategist of Credit Suisse in new york, said that in the past, the close relationship between the Australian dollar and China's economic cycle made the Australian dollar a substitute for the RMB. Now these central banks can directly choose RMB bonds, and the yields of RMB and Australian government bonds are equivalent or even higher. At the same time, he also pointed out that Australia does not account for the bulk of trade in most countries, and its demand as a reserve currency is limited.
"The recent rally of the Australian dollar is unlikely to continue, because the market underestimated the possibility of the Australian central bank cutting interest rates again at the moment when the Federal Reserve is about to start raising interest rates," said Joseph Capurso, strategist of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) in Sydney. "China's weak growth and falling commodity prices do not support the continued strength of the Australian dollar."
However, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) does not agree with the view that RMB's entry into SDR will impact the status of the Australian dollar, and the forecast of the future trend of the Australian dollar. Guy Debel, assistant to the chairman of the Reserve Bank of Australia, said last month that investors hold the Australian dollar, not as a substitute for the RMB, and the inclusion of the RMB in the IMF reserve currency will not affect the funds flowing into the Australian bond market in the short term.
Debel pointed out that investors hold Australian dollars in order to diversify their investments in three G3 currencies: the US dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen. He said: "I think investors include the Australian dollar in their portfolios for other reasons, not as a substitute for the renminbi."
Regarding whether the entry of RMB into the basket will have an impact on the Australian dollar, Andrew Ticehurst, strategist of Nomura in Sydney, said: "I think we should think more deeply and explore the deep-seated reasons for the depreciation of the Australian dollar. Is the Australian dollar falling because of the possibility of regional currency war? Or is it because commodity prices seem to continue to fall? Will there be more interest rate cuts in the Asia Pacific region? "