Although expected, the news of RMB appreciation came suddenly, and even caused an uproar among sensitive foreign trade enterprises in China.
The reporter learned in the interview that the appreciation of RMB has brought a heavy blow to foreign trade enterprises in China, especially in Zhejiang Province. However, some economic experts believe that from a long-term and overall perspective, we can't ignore the benefits brought by a small appreciation.
On the evening of the news, Chen Chao, the head of a private foreign trade enterprise specializing in clothing and toys in Hangzhou, knocked on the calculator at home. He said that taking the clothing industry as an example, the gross profit of most foreign trade clothing orders at present is 0.5 RMB, which means that the products exported by 1 USD are 0.5 yuan RMB. Every small appreciation of RMB against USD of 2% means that foreign trade enterprises will lose 0. 1 5 yuan's gross profit for every product they export. Together with other operating costs, the gross profit fell below 0.35 yuan, which means that it is almost unprofitable. The only way is to discuss with customers. If the customer is unwilling, then the loss can only be borne by himself. He believes that the foreign trade and clothing industry in China, especially in Zhejiang, has entered the severe winter ahead of schedule.
As a major export province, Zhejiang achieved an export of US$ 28 billion from/kloc-0 to-May this year, with a trade surplus of US$/kloc-0 and US$ 6 1 billion, ranking first in the country. The head of the Foreign Trade Department of Zhejiang Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Department said that from June 5438 to April this year, Zhejiang's foreign trade exports increased by 40.2%, of which clothing increased by about 26% and textiles increased by 35%. Restrictive policies in Europe and America are expected to affect 30% to 40% of textile export enterprises, and the appreciation of RMB will hit textile export enterprises again, especially those enterprises or small enterprises that rely on quantitative expansion to win.
Zhou Wei, manager of the administrative department of Wenzhou Aokang Group, the second largest shoe-making enterprise in China, said that the appreciation of RMB had no warning. "When I woke up, the assets of the enterprise evaporated a lot," which caught the enterprise off guard. He said that the impact is not only reflected in the evaporation of the market value of US dollars in corporate accounts, but also the losses of some signed export orders can only be borne by the enterprises themselves. Long-term losses are also manifested in the increase in export prices of products brought by appreciation, which will directly affect the export competitiveness of enterprise products. Mr. Ye, a luggage exporter in Hangzhou, said that the goods that have not been settled in the past two months have "lost tens of thousands". He said that in addition to the losses caused by foreign anti-dumping a while ago, the company is expected to lose money this year.
Bao Jiang, manager of Zhejiang Dacheng Hyatt Textile and Clothing Co., Ltd. said that some time ago, textile enterprises in Zhejiang faced unprecedented difficulties due to quota restrictions and European and American restrictions, so they were cautious in taking orders. There are thousands of textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. Some small factories either don't touch restricted products or detour into Europe and America. Some powerful enterprises have been afraid to take orders, or only dare to take small orders, and enterprises are in a state of semi-start. We haven't had enough to eat, and the appreciation once again took away a part of the gross profit of the enterprise, which shows the difficulty of the enterprise.
Li Wei, an agent of a well-known clothing company in South America in China, is very worried about the operation safety of the clothing processing factory. "Now the profit of the clothing industry is very thin. A garment processing factory with 7800 workers, with an annual profit of more than 2 million, is not bad. If there is a problem with a list, there may be losses. " At the same time, she said with concern: "the appreciation of the renminbi may make the treatment of workers who help us process worse."
However, some economic experts believe that this move has "disadvantages" in the short term, but from a long-term and overall point of view, we cannot avoid the benefits brought by a small appreciation.
Shen Danyang, vice president of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that according to the current trend of small exchange rate changes, China's export situation will not deteriorate in the second half of this year. If there is no significant appreciation in the second half of this year, a small adjustment of the RMB exchange rate will also be conducive to the transformation of China's foreign trade growth mode. According to a survey, Shen Danyang said, "The prices of most export products in China still have room to rise. Now the RMB exchange rate has risen slightly, which is equivalent to a corresponding increase in the price of export products, which objectively improves the profit rate of foreign trade. " But he also said that this view is based on a small appreciation of the renminbi.
Shen Danyang believes that appreciation will encourage enterprises to raise product prices in order to survive, thus increasing foreign trade profits. His organization conducted a survey in the first half of this year. Among the 136 export enterprises surveyed, 60% thought that the export prices of a considerable number of China products were low and there was room for price increase. Therefore, he believes that according to the current trend of RMB appreciation, considering the exchange rate changes, export enterprises will definitely raise export prices in future contracts. Generally speaking, China's products are of high quality and low price. Even if the price is increased, they are still relatively economical compared with Europe and America. In this way, the total export volume will not be reduced too much, but the profit will be increased.
Chen Chao, a private entrepreneur, also believes that the country's choice of appreciation at this time has far-reaching considerations. July and August are just the off-season for garment foreign trade enterprises to ship. At this time, appreciation can minimize the losses of textile foreign trade enterprises. At the same time, he thinks that the appreciation of RMB will bring some risks and problems, but it may also bring opportunities for China to rectify foreign trade export enterprises. "Now everyone is doing foreign trade. Irregular and inappropriate internal friction reduces the external competitiveness of China enterprises, allowing importing countries and importers to reap profits. "
An analyst believes that the textile dispute between China and Europe and the United States in the first half of this year shows that although China's export volume has greatly increased after the quota was abolished, its profits have not increased correspondingly in the same period, and it has provided the United States with high quality and low price products, which has also been questioned and sanctioned. The price war of domestic enterprises hurt themselves. The appreciation of RMB provides opportunities for domestic enterprises to raise the export price of their products.
According to Dr. He Fan from the Institute of World Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences, the appreciation of RMB can realize the resource allocation of survival of the fittest to a certain extent. Some small and medium-sized enterprises with thin profits are greatly affected, and some competitive product manufacturers can bear the impact of rising costs brought about by appreciation. Aokang Group, which has always adhered to the high-end route, is a ready-made example. The average export price of Wenzhou footwear industry is only $65,438 +0.5 to $2, and the export price of this enterprise is 10 times this price. Sticking to the high-end enables enterprises to ensure rich profits, and their ability to cope with the pressure brought by RMB appreciation and resist risks is obviously higher.
Source: Xia Tao Blog.