The current account surplus is dominant. In the first half of 2007, the current account surplus was $6,543.8+$062.9 billion, accounting for 64% of the total balance of payments surplus; The surplus of capital and financial projects was $90.2 billion, accounting for 36% of the total balance of payments surplus.
The balance of payments surplus has further expanded. The trade surplus of goods continued to rise. According to the balance of payments statistics, in the first half of 2007, China's trade surplus in goods was $654.38+0357 billion, accounting for 62% of the trade surplus in goods in 2006. Foreign direct investment in China grew rapidly, and the net inflow of foreign direct investment in China was 58.3 billion US dollars, up 56% year-on-year. The scale of foreign debt has increased. At the end of June 2007, the foreign debt balance was $329.7 billion (excluding the external liabilities of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Macao Special Administrative Region and Taiwan Province Province, the same below), an increase of $6.7 billion over the end of last year. In the first half of 2007, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 144 1 billion, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves reached1332.6 billion.
The balance of payments continues to be in surplus, and foreign exchange reserves have increased substantially, which shows that China's comprehensive strength and international competitiveness are constantly increasing. First of all, the continuous expansion of foreign trade and the continuous inflow of foreign direct investment have directly promoted the growth of domestic economy and employment, and brought a lot of foreign capital and technology, which is conducive to China's economic growth, structural upgrading and technological progress. Secondly, the relatively abundant foreign exchange reserves also provide a favorable guarantee for the implementation of major strategies such as national economic restructuring and reform in key areas, and enhance China's ability to repay foreign debts and resist risks. From the perspective of import payment, at the end of June 2007, China's foreign exchange reserves were equivalent to 17 months of imports; From the perspective of debt solvency, the ratio of China's foreign exchange reserves to short-term foreign debts is 720.85%, which is much higher than the internationally recognized warning line 100%.
Excessive balance of payments surplus and excessive growth of foreign exchange reserves will also adversely affect the operation of China's national economy, which is the main contradiction affecting China's balance of payments at this stage. Mainly manifested in:
First, it affects the effectiveness of national macro-control. The sustained and rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves has led to an increase in the passive investment of the central bank's base currency, increased pressure on hedging operations, weakened monetary policy initiative, more complicated liquidity management, increased difficulty in maintaining long-term price stability, increased inflation risk and increased uncertainty in economic operation, which has affected the sustained and healthy development of the national economy.
Second, increase the pressure of RMB appreciation. On the one hand, a large balance of payments surplus makes the foreign exchange supply in the domestic foreign exchange market continue to exceed the demand; On the other hand, the expected strengthening of RMB appreciation in the market has prompted institutions, enterprises and individuals to further change their asset structure, reduce foreign exchange assets and increase RMB assets, which has increased the pressure of RMB appreciation, affected the external environment of China's economic development to a certain extent and increased trade friction.
Third, increase the risk of international capital shocks. In the international environment where the scale of cross-border capital flow is expanding and the flow mode is more complicated, China's sustained large balance of payments surplus has attracted a large number of international capital inflows. If the market expectation reverses in the future, it will lead to the centralized outflow of cross-border capital, which will have a serious impact on China's economic development.
In short, if the domestic and international economic situation does not change greatly, China's large balance of payments surplus will be a long-term phenomenon. Therefore, in the future, we can give full play to the favorable aspects of the balance of payments surplus and sufficient foreign exchange reserves, accelerate the adjustment of domestic economic structure and industrial structure and the transformation of economic growth mode in a relatively stable economic and financial environment, actively implement the "going out" development strategy, continue to improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and promote the basic balance of international payments.
Second, the analysis of major items of balance of payments.
(1) Trade in goods
In the first half of 2007, China's goods trade continued to maintain rapid growth. According to the balance of payments statistics, the total import and export value of goods trade was 958.7 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 23%. Among them, exports were 547.2 billion US dollars, up 28%, imports were 465.438+065.438+05 billion US dollars, up 65.438+08%, and the trade surplus of goods was 65.438+0357 billion US dollars, up 70%.
According to customs statistics, China's trade in goods in the first half of 2007 showed the following main characteristics:
The scale of trade in goods continued to expand, and the import and export surplus increased rapidly. In the first half of 2007, China's total import and export value was 980.93 billion US dollars, an increase of 23.3%, and the growth rate was the same as that of the same period last year. Among them, exports were 546.73 billion US dollars, up by 27.6%, with an increase of 2.4 percentage points over the same period of last year; Imports reached US$ 434.2 billion, up by 18.2%, and the growth rate decreased by 3. 1 percentage point compared with the same period of last year. The import and export surplus was $65.438+065.438+0.25 billion, an increase of 83. 1%.
General trade is growing rapidly, and the growth rate of surplus is much higher than that of processing trade. The import and export of general trade was 440.84 billion US dollars, an increase of 29%; The import and export of processing trade was 440.88 billion US dollars, up by 18%.
Foreign-invested enterprises grew steadily, and private enterprises developed rapidly. In the first half of the year, the import and export of foreign-invested enterprises reached US$ 564.45 billion, up 2 1.3% year-on-year, lower than the overall 1.7 percentage points, accounting for 57.5% of the total import and export value. The import and export of private enterprises187.94 billion US dollars, up by 39%, higher than the overall 16 percentage points, accounting for 19.2% of the total import and export value.
Maintain good growth momentum with major trading partners. In the first half of the year, the EU remained China's largest trading partner, and the bilateral trade volume between China and Europe reached US$ 654.38+058.4 billion, up 27.3% year-on-year, accounting for 654.38+066.5438+0% of the total import and export value, accounting for an increase of 0.9 percentage points. The United States and Japan continue to be China's second and third largest trading partners. The bilateral trade volume between China and the United States and between China and Japan reached US$ 65.438+0406 billion and US$ 654.38+065.438+000 billion respectively, up by 654.38+07.4% and 654.38+04.5% year-on-year. The proportion of China-US and China-Japan trade volume in the total trade volume decreased by 0.7 and 0.9 percentage points respectively.
The structure of import and export commodities continued to improve. In the first half of the year, the export of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products was 309.95 billion US dollars and 654.38+05.287 billion US dollars, up by 27. 1% and 23.9% respectively, accounting for 56.7% and 28% of export commodities respectively. Imports of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products were 2233 1 billion dollars and128.96 billion dollars, increasing by 14.3% and 15.2% respectively. The export of traditional commodities has grown steadily. The export scale of some "two high and one capital" products declined, and the export volume of crude oil and coal decreased by 48.3% and 29.3% respectively.