Developed countries such as the United States and the European Union have benefited a lot from China's accession to the World Trade Organization.
Experts in university of international business and economics predict that after China formally joins the WTO, the average tariffs on agricultural and industrial products will be greatly reduced, reaching the average level of developing countries by 2005. Because the products of the United States and the European Union are very competitive in the international market, China's reduction of tariffs and gradual elimination of non-tariff barriers can promote the export of its agricultural products and industrial products to China, which is of great benefit to both farmers and producers. Moreover, the cancellation of some product quotas and the further liberalization of import and export management rights will also promote the growth of trade.
The President of the American Chamber of Commerce once said: By 2005, China's accession to the WTO will promote the increase of US exports to China1400 million US dollars. Experts say that the opening of China's market has great attraction. After China formally joins the World Trade Organization, it will gradually open up various service fields such as telecommunications, insurance, circulation, banking, securities, tourism, construction and legal services in a few years. Service providers in the United States and the European Union attach great importance to the influence of the China market on the future world economic development, and express their intention to enter the China market or expand their business in China.
Countries in the Asia-Pacific region, especially developing countries, have mixed feelings about China's accession to the WTO.
Japanese business circles believe that China's accession to the WTO will improve China's market opening and trade environment, and Japanese enterprises' investment and trade in China will benefit from it. On the other hand, China's entry into WTO will strengthen China's strength in international competition, thus putting pressure on Japanese domestic industries. After China's entry into WTO, the attraction of low cost will promote the transfer of Japanese industries to China, leading to the hollowing out of Japanese domestic industries.
Southeast Asian countries are more pessimistic. Professionals said that the first is the impact of exports. Due to the export-oriented policies of electronic products and semiconductors in Southeast Asian countries, the economies of various countries are deeply dependent on the export of electronic products. Recently, the economic growth of the United States tends to stagnate, which leads to the shrinking global demand and the obvious reduction of IT product orders, which seriously affects the exports of these countries and greatly reduces the GDP growth. China's accession to the WTO will exert great pressure on the exports of these countries. First, China's accession to the WTO has enhanced China's international competitiveness; Secondly, as a full member of the World Trade Organization, China can enjoy the right to enter the markets of developed members on the basis of MFN treatment, which will reduce the market share of some developing members in the United States, Europe, Japan and Canada to some extent. Second, attract foreign investment. Some Southeast Asian countries and regions are in economic and political turmoil, while China's economy has been developing steadily. After China's entry into WTO, the further improvement of China's investment environment will attract a lot of foreign direct investment. Meanwhile, due to the global economic slowdown, direct investment will decrease this year. According to the British "Economist" magazine, global international direct investment may decrease from 1. 1 trillion dollars in 2000 to 800 billion dollars in 2006. The increase of China's attracting foreign investment may have a negative impact on these countries' attracting foreign investment. Thirdly, after China's entry into WTO, China's ability to attract WTO members has been enhanced, but it is still unknown how much developing China countries can benefit from it.
China's accession to the World Trade Organization will have a long-term impact on the pattern of international trade and investment.
First of all, China's accession to the WTO can promote the trade growth between China and its major trading partners. China's entry into WTO will increase China's share in international trade. It is predicted that China's share of world exports will increase from 3.7% in 1995 to 6.3% in 2005. In 2000, China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) ranked seventh in world commodity trade with a share of 3.9%, and eighth in imports with a share of 3.4%. In the long run, China's accession to the WTO will have a great impact on the flow and direction of international trade.
In terms of investment, with China's accession to the WTO, China's investment environment will be improved as never before, the degree of market opening will be enhanced, and the open areas will be expanded, especially the improvement of the soft environment for foreign investment in the service industry. The huge attraction of China's vast market will affect the flow of international investment for a long time. Some international bankers predict that China will become the fourth largest capital market in the world in the next ten years, and China will rank among the three largest capital markets in the world in fifteen years. Of course, at present, China should make great efforts in policies and regulations, banking structure, foreign exchange control and enterprise control.
The analysis points out that in the short term, on the one hand, China's domestic economy is stable, and joining the WTO can provide more trade opportunities and investment opportunities, stimulate the confidence of consumers and investors, and promote the growth of direct investment; On the other hand, China's economy is in transition, and the reform of state-owned enterprises has encountered great difficulties. The improvement of the capital market and investment environment will not happen overnight, and it will take some time. At the same time, the slowdown of international direct investment and the decline in the total amount have also brought negative effects. In the short term, the growth rate of attracting foreign investment is relatively slow.
Experts say that China's entry into the WTO will also affect the investment strategy of multinational companies. After China's entry into WTO, China's trade environment, investment environment and many existing policies and regulations will undergo important changes, and the investment strategy of multinational companies in China will also be adjusted with the adjustment after China's entry into WTO. Whether to adopt export strategy or direct investment depends on the specific changes after China's entry into WTO. In the next few years, the development of China's capital market will promote the rapid development of transnational mergers and acquisitions of China enterprises by multinational companies. Most importantly, multinational companies will have to reconsider China's position in its global strategy, and its global production system and organizational structure will undergo tremendous adjustments. China's vast market space, low labor cost, the perfection of laws and regulations after China's entry into WTO and the standardized development of market mechanism are all important factors for multinational companies to determine their production, R&D and marketing strategies. At present, many multinational companies have put their production bases in China. More multinational companies are full of confidence in the development of China after China's entry into WTO, and decide to adjust the regional layout of production and transfer the production base to China.