Main problems in macroeconomic operations

Although my country's economic indicators in the first half of the year are generally operating well, with hard work, the full-year economic growth target will be achieved as scheduled. However, some deep-seated contradictions in my country's economic development and the structural excess of total social supply have not been fundamentally resolved, and the internal driving force for economic development and demand growth is still insufficient. There are three main problems existing in the current economic operation:

1. The main driving force for economic growth is government action, and the internal driving force of the market mechanism is insufficient

From exports and consumption Looking at the three major factors driving economic growth: demand and investment, the main factor for economic growth in the first half of this year was government fixed asset investment, that is, mainly driven by government policy investment behavior, with less internal driving factors from market mechanisms. The specific manifestation of government actions driving economic growth is: proactive fiscal policies have enabled sufficient government bond funds to continue to play a greater role in promoting economic growth. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the whole society was 15.1 higher than the same period last year. percentage points. Among them: first, the implementation of interest discount measures for national debt technical renovation investment has led to a substantial increase in investment in renovation and renovation of state-owned enterprises, with investment in renovation and renovation increasing by 26.9%, an increase of 4 percentage points over the same period last year; second, the in-depth advancement of the reform of the housing distribution system , continue to stimulate the sustained and rapid growth of real estate investment. In the first half of the year, real estate development investment increased by 28.2%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points over the same period last year; third, investment in infrastructure increased significantly. Investment in capital construction increased by 11.8 percentage points in the first half of the year, 5.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year. At the same time, driven by the western development policy, investment in the western region increased by 28.8% in the first half of the year, 10.5% higher than that in the eastern and central regions respectively. and 11 percentage points. On the one hand, these conditions show that the pattern of government-led investment growth has not fundamentally changed. On the other hand, they also reflect that economic growth relies too much on government policy investment and that social investment is obviously insufficient. In the first half of the year, urban and rural collective and individual investment only increased by 7.5%. The investment growth rate dropped slightly from the same period last year and was 10.4 percentage points lower than state-owned and other investment. If economic growth relies too much on government policy investment and is divorced from the inherent needs of market economic development, once government bond investment declines in the future and private investment fails to start in time, my country's economic growth will have insufficient stamina and it will be difficult to form a high-quality and sustainable growth trend.

2. Foreign trade import and export are showing a decelerating trend, and the role of external demand in driving economic growth has been significantly weakened

Judging from my country’s current trade situation, it is a foregone conclusion that the export growth rate will decline this year. The driving role of economic growth has also been significantly weakened. In the first half of the year, my country's foreign trade export growth rate has decreased by 29.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and exports continued to fall in June. In the first quarter of this year, due to the slowdown in export growth, the contribution rate of net export growth to GDP growth was -0.22. There are four main reasons for the decline in foreign trade export growth: First, it is affected by the slowdown of the world economy. In the first half of the year, my country's export growth to major trading partners has fallen across the board. In terms of countries and regions, exports to Hong Kong, the United States, Japan, ASEAN, and the European Union fell by 34.1, 24.4, 20.6, 43.6, and 29.1 respectively compared with the same period last year. percentage points. Especially in May this year, export growth to the United States, my country's largest export market, was zero. Second, the enthusiasm of export enterprises has weakened. At present, the comprehensive tax refund rate for my country's foreign trade exports has reached 15%. There is not much room to further increase the export tax refund rate. In addition, problems such as insufficient national tax refund quotas and slow tax refund progress have led to a very prominent problem of capital shortage for export enterprises. At present, export enterprises have There are orders but no funds, and the export business cannot operate normally. In May this year, the amount of export tax rebates processed nationwide fell by 14.4% year-on-year, with the declines in the three major tax rebate provinces of Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang reaching 81.2%, 94.4% and 100% respectively, seriously affecting the enthusiasm of enterprises for exporting. Third, the classification management methods for processing trade are imperfect and the deep processing carryover policy is unclear, which has a greater impact on processing trade exports. From January to May, processing trade exports only increased by 0.03%. At present, processing trade accounts for 54% of my country's export trade. 90% of the increase in my country's foreign exchange settlement and sales comes from foreign-invested enterprises, and 80% of foreign-invested enterprises are engaged in processing trade. Fourth, my country's export competitiveness of traditional products such as textiles, clothing, bags, and footwear has declined. The main factor is the sharp depreciation of exchange rates in Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea and other my country's neighboring countries and regions. Compared with the same period last year, the depreciation in June this year was The range is mostly between 15-30%, which puts my country's traditional export products at a relatively disadvantaged position in the fierce international market competition. These problems will not only affect export growth in the second half of this year, but will also become a major "bottleneck" for my country's export growth in the future.

3. The deflation situation has not changed significantly, and the contradiction of insufficient effective demand is still prominent

In the first half of this year, although my country's domestic demand growth was relatively stable, the domestic market price rose. The main factors are caused by factors such as policy price adjustments and rising national oil prices. The spontaneous effect of market supply and demand is not obvious.

At present, the vast majority of industrial products are still in oversupply and prices continue to fall. From January to May, the growth rate of ex-factory prices of industrial products dropped by 1.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate of purchase prices of raw materials, fuel and power also dropped by 2.2 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Some deep-seated contradictions in my country's economic development and the problem of structural excess in total social supply have not been fundamentally resolved. It is expected that the price growth rate of my country's industrial consumer goods market will be difficult to stop falling and rebound in the short term, and the situation of excess production capacity of industrial consumer goods will not be fundamentally changed in the short term.

The specific policy measures are as follows:

1. Further expand domestic demand, focusing on expanding consumption. First, we should speed up the introduction of policies to encourage consumption, increase the role of consumer credit in promoting consumption growth, and cultivate new consumption growth points such as automobiles and tourism. Secondly, we should increase the adjustment of the income distribution structure, especially the strengthening of the control of the country's secondary distribution. Adjust the income of high-income groups through taxation, and accelerate the increase in the income of low-income groups such as laid-off workers. Third, we should accelerate the improvement of social security functions, increase national fiscal expenditures on social security funds, establish special national bonds for the social security system, implement national co-ordination of social security funds, and tilt it towards poor areas and low-income groups through transfer payments. Make the country's limited social security funds produce the greatest consumption growth effect.

2. Adjust the investment structure while continuing to implement proactive fiscal policies. The state should adhere to total volume control in investment, resolutely curb duplication of construction, expand the role of government bonds in stimulating demand, and increase the scope of use of government bond loan interest discounts; at the same time, it should accelerate the adjustment of the investment structure and the direction of the investment and use of fiscal funds (government bonds), so that the investment focus Transfer to 8 aspects: from infrastructure to industrial upgrading; from expanding investment to expanding consumption; from investing in cities to investing in rural areas; from increasing the income of national civil servants to increasing farmers' income; from reducing the burden on industry to reducing the burden on agriculture Burden shift; shift from supporting large state-owned enterprises to supporting small and medium-sized enterprises; shift from direct government investment to cultivating market mechanisms; shift from short-term investment effects to long-term investment effects.

3. Accelerate the reform of the investment and financing system. Expand market access in accordance with WTO guidelines, develop capital markets, expand direct financing, establish venture capital funds, and create a startup market as soon as possible; at the same time, vigorously launch social investment, increase the role of social investment in driving economic growth, and introduce and implement policies to encourage social In the investment tax policy, social investment funds invested in industries, projects and products encouraged by the state should be fully exempted or reduced from corporate and personal income tax. 4. Increase support for export companies and products to promote rapid growth in exports. The enthusiasm of export enterprises should be further mobilized, and powerful short-term measures should be taken to stimulate the growth of exports. In particular, special export encouragement policies should be implemented for the export of traditional labor-intensive commodities with strong competitiveness, not only to increase the amount of export tax rebates , Accelerate the progress of export tax rebates, and at the same time increase support for export credits.

5. Accelerate the process of agricultural industrialization and increase farmers’ income. At present, the growth rate of farmers' income has been declining year by year and the slow growth of rural consumption has become an important factor restricting my country's economic growth. The main reason restricting the growth of farmers' income is the sharp decline in agricultural product prices. Therefore, taking effective measures to stabilize agricultural product prices is a top priority and expedient to stabilize rural incomes. Judging from foreign experience, almost all developed countries subsidize agricultural production or implement price protection policies for agricultural products to varying degrees. However, my country currently lacks protection for agricultural product prices, coupled with the excessive tax burden on farmers, resulting in farmers’ Revenue growth has been declining year after year. In order to change this situation, it is recommended that the state cancel agricultural taxes at the appropriate time to give farmers a breathing space to recuperate, or use all agricultural tax revenue to establish a price protection fund for agricultural and sideline products to ensure the implementation of protective prices for agricultural and sideline products purchases and protect people engaged in agricultural production. The income of farmers has grown steadily; at the same time, leading enterprises in rural areas should be vigorously supported, leading enterprises can drive related industries in rural areas, and expand the employment of rural labor forces to increase farmers' income. According to statistics, the main factor in the growth of farmers' income in recent years comes from farmers' income from working. Therefore, accelerating the industrialization of agriculture and the process of rural urbanization and increasing investment in rural infrastructure construction are the fundamental ways to increase farmers' income in the future.

6. Increase support for small and medium-sized enterprises. At present, the extreme shortage of working capital for small and medium-sized enterprises in my country has seriously restricted the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. Therefore, the state should increase its support for small and medium-sized enterprises, further expand the interest rate floating range for loans to small and medium-sized enterprises, and mobilize the enthusiasm of banks for lending to small and medium-sized enterprises. , to meet the normal loan needs of small and medium-sized enterprises.