The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets plummeted, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell hundreds of points. It not only fell below the previous low of 2,481 points, but also hit a 14-month low. Such a violent plunge once again dealt a devastating blow to investor confidence. However, relevant people interviewed by this reporter said that there will be a short-term technical rebound after the plunge.
The reason for the plunge was not unexpected
Regarding yesterday’s market plunge and the general phenomenon of individual stocks, Zhou Sili, assistant director of the Northeast Securities Research Institute of Finance and Industry, believes that it is still a macroeconomic issue. This is dictated by fundamentals and market liquidity. From the perspective of macroeconomic fundamentals, although the macroeconomic data for the first half of this year will not be released until mid-July. "But according to our forecast, this year's economic growth rate reached its peak in the first quarter, and then fell quarter by quarter, and the decline will extend to the first quarter of next year. Because the first quarter of this year is a high point, then the first quarter of next year The growth rate is relatively low. "Zhou Sili's predictions are that the GDP growth rate in the first half of this year will be between 9.5% and 10%; in the second half of this year, it will fall back to between 8.5% and 9%; and in the first quarter of next year. It fell further to around 8%. The stock market, as a "barometer" of the macro economy, will of course react, and react in advance.
From the perspective of the international economic situation, at the G20 Summit, many countries, especially EU members, requested to reduce fiscal deficits, which means that loose monetary policies and active fiscal policies will be withdrawn. Although the probability of my country raising interest rates and raising the deposit reserve ratio again in the short term is not high, market expectations have turned pessimistic.
"The IPO inquiry results of Agricultural Bank of China also have a certain impact on the market decline." Zhou Sili explained to reporters that it stands to reason that Agricultural Bank of China's IPO price of 2.52-2.68 yuan/share is lower than originally expected, and the price-to-book ratio is only about 1.6 times , has certain advantages over the already listed ICBC, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank; but dialectically speaking, it is not that simple. Just because the IPO inquiry result of Agricultural Bank of China is lower than market expectations and lower than the price-to-book ratio of the other three major banks, then, other There is pressure on the valuations of the three major banks, and they need to find opportunities to release this pressure. Judging from the market yesterday, bank stocks also turned "green" along with the market.
Feng Wensuo, a senior strategist at New Era Securities, said that the market has been fluctuating within a narrow range between 2,500 and 2,600 points for more than a month, and transactions have been frequent in recent days. The trading volume on Monday and two cities this week was only 90.9 billion. These signals indicate that the market is about to change. Now it seems that the market bottom is not really clear yet.
Feng Wensuo also believes that judging from yesterday's market, there was almost no resistance during the decline. The shorts were coming fiercely, and there should be huge negatives behind it. However, there are only two major negatives that have become clear: one is the IPO of Agricultural Bank of China; Regardless of whether its initial price is high or low, funds will be diverted from the market; second, there are media reports that the US "Fang and Freddie" (i.e. real estate, Fannie Mae) have delisted, while Chinese financial institutions currently hold 500 billion It will become increasingly difficult to sell and cash out US dollar-denominated "Family and Freddie" bonds.
"Of course, the current high valuations of the small and medium-sized boards and the GEM also need to make up for the decline." Feng Wensuo said that the current average price-earnings ratio of the small and medium-sized boards is about 40 times, which is twice as high as the average price-earnings ratio of the main board market. Release valuation risk.