Since the founding of New China, the RMB exchange rate mechanism has experienced tortuous development and evolution. China's foreign exchange system reform has also experienced a highly centralized planned management mode, from the management mode of combining planning and market based on the system of retention and payment of foreign exchange to the management mode based on the relationship between supply and demand and market regulation based on the system of settlement and sale of foreign exchange. The evolution of RMB exchange rate system can be divided into two stages, based on the economic development of each stage, with the economic system reform of each stage as the clue and the reform and opening up as the dividing point.
2. 1 RMB exchange rate system from the founding of New China to the reform and opening up.
Before the reform and opening up, the RMB exchange rate arrangement can be roughly divided into two stages: management during the period of national economic recovery
Floating and pegged to the dollar, and then pegged to a basket of currencies.
2. 1. 1 management floating system stage (1949— 1952)
At the beginning of the birth of RMB, the planned economic system was not established, and the people's government announced that RMB was not based on gold, but actually a managed floating system. The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is determined by the weighted average of the export price, import price and daily living expenses of overseas Chinese. During this period, the RMB exchange rate was determined on the basis of prices, and its function was actually to regulate foreign trade and take care of the income of remittances.
2. 1.2 change from pegged to the dollar to pegged to a basket of currencies.
Due to the completion of socialist transformation and the establishment of planned economic system, the exchange rate has lost its role in regulating import and export trade. In order to facilitate internal accounting and planning, the RMB exchange rate adheres to the principle of stability. 1March, 955, the new currency replaced the old currency. Until June of 197 1, the RMB exchange rate remained basically at 1 USD =2.46 18 RMB 16 years. The Bretton Woods system is at its peak in the world, and the exchange rate between the major western currencies is generally stable, as is the RMB against the major western currencies. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the determination of RMB exchange rate is to select several currencies that are often used in China's foreign trade and economic cooperation, determine the weights according to their importance and policy needs, and calculate the RMB exchange rate according to the international fluctuation range of these currencies. It is essentially linked to a basket of currencies. This exchange rate arrangement pegged to the basket currency is easy to operate, which can largely resist or reduce the impact of international exchange rate fluctuations on China's currency, thus maintaining the relative stability of the RMB exchange rate, which is conducive to foreign trade enterprises' cost accounting, profit forecasting and reducing exchange risks. From 1973 to 1979, the weight of RMB currency basket was only adjusted several times.
Under the planned economy system, the main function of RMB is only to play the role of an auxiliary computing unit. Its change has a great influence on the nominal profit of China's foreign trade import and export; However, due to the adjustment of the foreign exchange authorities, the change of RMB exchange rate has no effect on the actual profit of the foreign trade department.
2.2 Exchange rate system after the reform and opening up
After the reform and opening up, in order to better adapt to economic development, the RMB exchange rate system has gone through two stages: the planned dual-track system and the exchange rate system pegged to the US dollar.
2.2. 1 planned dual-track system (1979— 1993)
From 65438 to 0979, China implemented the reform of foreign trade system. In order to promote the development of foreign trade and realize the dual exchange rate of internal settlement price and official exchange rate, one is to use the published exchange rate of non-trade foreign exchange receipts and payments (US$ 65,438 +0 equals RMB 65,438 +0.5, official exchange rate), which is actually calculated by weighted average of a basket of currencies. Another intra-trade settlement price (US$ 65,438 +0 equals RMB 2.8 yuan, exchange rate) used for foreign exchange balance settlement is actually calculated according to the national average exchange cost plus a certain profit. Therefore, the RMB exchange rate in China at this stage is actually a planned dual-track system. The internal settlement price aims to correct the overvaluation of RMB exchange rate and give play to the role of exchange rate as a price lever to stimulate trade and exports. The RMB exchange rate mechanism reflects the marketization direction of RMB exchange rate after the reform and opening up at that time, which is a kind of progress.
2.2.2 Managed floating exchange rate system pegged to the US dollar (1985-1993)
At the same time, the reform of RMB exchange rate system has been going on. From 1 98565438+1October1,China cancelled the internal settlement price and resumed the single exchange rate, and the RMB exchange rate entered a period of coexistence of "official exchange rate and foreign exchange swap market exchange rate". From 65438 to 0986, China implemented a floating exchange rate system pegged to the US dollar. The International Monetary Fund classifies this managed floating exchange rate as a highly flexible exchange rate system. Since then, the RMB exchange rate has been greatly lowered several times. By March 1992, the RMB exchange rate had been lowered to 1 USD =5.74 RMB. During this period, the exchange rate of the foreign exchange swap market is mainly determined by supply and demand, but the whole market is under the management of the state, and the state can intervene in the market exchange rate through administrative means when necessary.
2.2.3 Single managed floating exchange rate system (1994- present)
From 1 99465438+1October1,the official RMB exchange rate merged with the foreign exchange swap market exchange rate. The combined exchange rate is close to the market exchange rate, which is a single managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand. 1 996165438+1October, Dai Xianglong, governor of the People's Bank of China, announced that China will implement RMB convertibility under the current account from 65438+February1day. After the Asian financial crisis, in view of the changes in the political and economic situation at home and abroad, the RMB has become a de facto "pegged exchange rate system", which proves that this exchange rate arrangement is reasonable and effective. At this point, the RMB exchange rate has obviously moved towards marketization, which has further deepened the RMB exchange rate reform in the past decade and made a major breakthrough.
Looking back on the evolution and development of RMB exchange rate system since the founding of New China, especially since the reform and opening up, there are many experiences and lessons worth summarizing and learning. From the above analysis, we can draw the following conclusions (1): a country's exchange rate system cannot remain unchanged forever, and the arrangement of RMB exchange rate in different periods evolves with the needs of economic development. (2) The reform of RMB exchange rate system has taken the road of pegging to a single dollar-pegging to a basket of currencies-pegging to a single dollar, but gradually expanding the flexibility and marketization of exchange rate is the essence of this evolution. Therefore, the future RMB exchange rate reform will inevitably develop in the direction of marketization.