Surprisingly, the US dollar index is not from CBOT or CME, but from new york Cotton Exchange (NYCE). New york Cotton Exchange was founded in 1870, which was originally composed of a group of cotton merchants and brokers. At present, it is the oldest commodity exchange in new york and the most important cotton futures and options exchange in the world. 1985, new york cotton exchange established the finance department, and officially entered the global financial commodity market. The first is the US dollar index futures.
The foreign currency and weight used by USDX are the same as the weighting index of US dollar transactions in the Federal Reserve System. Since USDX is only based on foreign exchange quotation indicators, it may be different due to the use of different data sources.
USDX is calculated with reference to the geometric average weighted value 1973 of the exchange rate changes of six currencies against the US dollar in March, and its value is calculated based on 100.00. For example, the quotation of 105.50 points means that its value has increased by 5.50% since March 1973.
March 1973 was chosen as the reference point because it was a historic turning point in the foreign exchange market. Since then, major trading countries have allowed their currencies to float freely with the currencies of another country.
The agreement was reached at the Smithsonian Institution in Washington, D.C., symbolizing the victory of free trade theorists. The Smithsonian Agreement replaced the unsuccessful fixed exchange rate system reached in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire in 1948. [Edit this paragraph] The impact of the US dollar index USDX is an indicator that comprehensively reflects the exchange rate of the US dollar in the international foreign exchange market and is used to measure the degree of exchange rate changes of the US dollar against a basket of currencies. It measures the strength of the US dollar by calculating the comprehensive rate of change between the US dollar and a selected basket of currencies, thus indirectly reflecting the changes in US export competitiveness and import costs.
The rise of the US dollar index means that the exchange rate between the US dollar and other currencies has risen, which means that the US dollar has appreciated. Therefore, major international commodities are denominated in US dollars, and the corresponding commodity prices should fall. The appreciation of the US dollar is beneficial to the overall national economy, enhancing the value of the national currency and increasing purchasing power. However, it also has an impact on some industries, such as import and export industries. Currency appreciation will increase the price of export commodities, which will affect the export commodities of some companies. If the dollar index falls, the opposite is true. [Edit this paragraph] The calculation principle of the US dollar index. The calculation principle of USDX futures is based on the trade settlement between major countries in the world and the United States, with 100 as the dividing line, and the overall strength of the US dollar is weighted. 1 99965438+1October1After the introduction of the euro, the subject matter of the futures contract was adjusted from 10 to 6 countries, and the euro became the most important and weighted currency, accounting for 57.6%. Therefore, the fluctuation of the euro has the greatest impact on the strength of USDX.
Weight of Currency Index (%)
57.6 euros
13.6 yen
GBP 1 1.9
Canadian dollar 9. 1
Swedish krona 4.2
Swiss franc 3.6
The current USDX level reflects the average value of the US dollar relative to the benchmark 1973. Up to now, the US dollar index has soared to 165 and also fell below 80 points. This change feature is widely compared with the futures stock index in quantity and change rate.
Influencing factors of dollar index
1, US federal funds rate
Under normal circumstances, when American interest rates fall, the trend of the dollar will be weak; American interest rates have risen, and the dollar has a preference. In the first half of 1980s, although there were a large number of trade deficits and huge fiscal deficits, the US dollar remained firm, which was the result of the high interest rate policy of the United States, prompting a large amount of capital to flow into the United States from Japan and Western Europe. The trend of the dollar is greatly influenced by interest rate factors. If a country's interest rate is higher than other countries, it will attract a large amount of capital inflows and reduce domestic capital outflows, leading to the currency being snapped up in the international market; At the same time, the income and expenditure of capital account have been improved, and the exchange rate of domestic currency has been improved. On the other hand, if a country loosens credit, the interest rate will fall. If the interest rate level is lower than other countries, it will lead to a large outflow of capital, a decrease in foreign capital inflows and a deterioration of the capital account balance. At the same time, this currency will be sold in the foreign exchange market, leading to a decline in the exchange rate.
2. Commodity prices
Most commodities in the international commodity market are denominated in US dollars, so the price of commodities is negatively correlated with the US dollar index.
3. Euro exchange rate
The dollar index is basically a weighted index of a series of exchange rates, so it is ultimately reflected in the strength of freely convertible currencies between the United States and its major trading currencies. The euro is the most important currency in the basket of currencies formed by the US dollar index, and the trend of the euro naturally becomes an important factor affecting the US dollar index.