The IMF has two requirements for RMB to join SDR: one is to look at your import and export share in international trade. At present, China accounts for 18% of the world, ranking first; The second is "free convertibility". And this "free convertibility" is the weakness of the RMB. At present, the degree of free convertibility of RMB is low, the domestic capital account is not fully liberalized, and foreign exchange is strictly monitored and controlled.
At present, the biggest obstacle to the internationalization of RMB is the free convertibility of RMB. With the expansion of the deep water area of financial reform, RMB will formally join the SDR basket created by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on June 5438+1 October1,becoming the fifth major currency in the world to be included in the SDR basket after the pound, euro, yen and US dollar.
RMB will join SDR with the weight of 10.92%, while the weight of US dollar will remain unchanged at 4 1.73%, while the weight of Euro, Japanese yen and British pound will be reduced accordingly, accounting for 30.93%, 8.33% and 8.09% respectively. In fact, this is a very high weight, but its impact on China's financial system cannot be ignored. The famous Mundell-Krugman can't put forward that a government can only achieve two of the three goals of free capital flow, monetary policy independence and monetary stability. China's current state is the independence of monetary policy, focusing on a basket of currencies including the US dollar, and the capital account is not open. In fact, this means that China's central banking system will realize the free flow of RMB and the stability of its currency by losing the independence of monetary policy.
For a country with a large area and complicated situation like China, it is impossible to give up the independence of monetary policy. Therefore, we can only abandon the fixed exchange rate and let the RMB float freely against international currencies such as the US dollar. How the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will fluctuate after liberalization, and how to achieve reasonable hedging and avoid market and trading risks are worthy of attention.
First of all, RMB has entered the world currency, and there is a fierce capital game in the RMB market in Hong Kong. From September 14 to September 19, overnight RMB interbank interest rate in Hong Kong kept hitting record highs and broke away from the normal market level for several days. On September 19, the overnight RMB Interbank Offered Rate (CNH Hibor) in Hong Kong even reported 23.68%, which was significantly higher than 7.95% on September 15, and it was the second highest in history since March 20 10, second only to 65,438+/kl this year. Not only in overnight rate, but also under all other conditions, the interest rate of offshore RMB loans is at the second highest level in history. 7-day CNH Hibor increased from 8.99% to 12.45%, and 14-day CNH Hibor also climbed to 12.45%.
Undoubtedly, the internationalization of RMB is of great benefit to China, and the inclusion of SDR will attract 4-7 trillion RMB (626 billion-1. 1 trillion USD) to China in the next five years. Joining SDR will undoubtedly promote the nationalization of RMB, and the most favorable sectors in this regard are RMB cross-border settlement banks, international business and logistics companies.
After RMB joined SDR, RMB actually experienced a process of dollarization of RMB currency. That is, the free exchange of RMB with other currencies in the world, and this exchange process is actually judged by the US dollar as a dynamic benchmark. Therefore, based on the strong currency status of the US dollar and the nature of the world currency, the RMB will face a depreciation adjustment zone three to five months before joining the SDR. Bank of China implemented the "exchange rate reform" in August last year 1 1, and depreciated by 1.83% in one day, and was finally approved by the IMF as the fifth currency of SDR at the end of last year. After showing muscles at the critical moment, the central bank is more of a "performance." Sure enough, after the RMB was officially allowed to join SDR at the end of last year, the capital control has increased significantly this year.
After 5438+00 officially joined the SDR in June, the RMB will have no incentive to depreciate rapidly and sharply. So after this adjustment period, the RMB began to be freely convertible. Once the circulation increases, it means that the world currency attribute of the currency itself is strengthened. With the strong support of commodity redemption, RMB is bound to become a powerful world currency asset, opening a strong road to currency appreciation.
As the third largest shareholder of IMF and a new issuer of SDR currency, it is necessary for China to maintain the stability and transparency of its exchange rate policy to enhance its credibility. The G20 meeting emphasized that excessive exchange rate fluctuations would affect economic and financial stability, and promised to avoid competitive devaluation. China, as the rotating presidency this year, will not take the lead in liberalizing RMB depreciation.
The weight of RMB 10.92% means that IMF members will automatically form an exposure of about RMB 30.9 billion through their SDR shares, which is not a small sum. Foreign exchange reserves and China's continuous bilateral currency swap have been in full swing. Entering the basket will promote the reallocation of reserve assets to RMB, and the actual valuation of RMB assets will be improved.
1 October1day is an important and memorable festival for China. RMB's entry into SDR will go hand in hand, and the road for RMB to become a world currency will be bright.