What impact will the rise of China have on the world? Many analysts say China's rapidly growing economic power is changing the world's trade patterns. Some criticize China's trade and monetary policies as troubling, but others argue that China's rise has generally been good for both industrialized countries and less developed parts of the world. As we all know, China is developing very fast. Over the past 20 years, China has maintained an average growth rate of 9.5%. According to some estimates, its economic power is second only to that of the United States. China now has more than 1.3 trillion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves, the largest in the world. It is the world's third largest trading nation and remains the country that attracts the most foreign investment. Since the number of employed people in China is increasing by 25 million every year, many analysts tend to regard China's rise as the main driving force for world economic development. China's increase in the number of jobs every year is equivalent to adding a medium-sized industrialized country to the world economy every year. Causing a new international division of labor Schaeffer, an economist at the Stanley Foundation whose purpose is to promote international political and economic cooperation, said that the rise of China has triggered a new global division of labor, with mixed results. Schaefer said: "China's huge labor market has had a profound impact on changes in trade patterns. We have seen changes in the origins of different products. We have seen that the United States, Europe and Japan are more concentrated in the production of high-quality products. Technology and very specialized products have brought huge economic benefits to these countries. At the same time, we have also seen the production of many types of manufacturing and products that are relatively low in the economic development chain move to China. It's a chaotic process of economic restructuring. It's hard to know exactly where it's going, so it's causing some concern. "In order to maintain its huge growth, China has to buy a lot of minerals. China accounts for 5% of the global economy, but it consumes 20% of the world's aluminum and copper, about 30% of the world's steel, iron ore and coal, and 45% of the cement every year. Expanding resources will benefit many countries. Ronald McKinnon, an economist at Stanford University, said that China's huge appetite for resources has brought benefits to many countries. MacKinnon said: "It has changed a lot in East Asian countries. But its purchase of primary products on the global market has brought benefits to Latin America. Countries like Chile, Argentina and Brazil are exporting large amounts of raw materials to China. . So we haven’t seen any economic crisis in Latin America recently.” Impacting global lending patterns MacKinnon added that China’s wealth is also affecting lending patterns around the world. He said that unlike the World Bank, Beijing has been providing considerable amounts of credit to developing countries without any political strings attached. "Their lending is more politically neutral," MacKinnon said. "They're there to build roads, power plants and new ports because they want the raw materials. They don't ask about local government politics. That's why Africans don't mind China. and feel more comfortable investing in China than many Western governments.” However, the United States and Europe are critical of China’s policies. Earlier this year, the U.S. government filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization against China's export subsidies and piracy practices and announced tariffs of 10% to 20% on some Chinese products. Washington has also stepped up pressure on Beijing to let the yuan appreciate. They say China's undervalued currency and low-cost labor give China an unfair advantage in international trade. By artificially lowering the value of the RMB against the U.S. dollar, China's exports become cheaper for U.S. consumers, while U.S. exports to China become more expensive, making the U.S.'s already worsening trade deficit even worse, and also creating a problem for the U.S. Economic instability. Some experts say the yuan should increase in value against the dollar by at least 40%. Clyde Prestowitz, president of the Institute for Economic Strategy, a think tank in Washington, said China's troubling trade surplus with the United States reached $233 billion last year, accounting for almost 30% of the total U.S. trade deficit. He pointed out that Beijing's policy is the same as that of most East Asian countries, including Japan. "Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore all pursue export-oriented strategies," Prestowitz said. "They all manage their currencies to make them less valuable than they actually are. They all maintain 50%. China has a high savings rate, has invested heavily in export industries and relies heavily on exports to the United States to promote economic growth. "The trade surplus ultimately benefits the United States," said Schaeffer of the Stanley Foundation. A larger trade surplus will ultimately benefit the United States as well. Schaefer said: "If a Thai company that produces low-cost products for export to the United States moves its production base to China because China's manufacturing costs are cheaper, this will not have a negative impact on the U.S. market because these The jobs are not in the United States. But because the products coming into the United States are now cheaper, it is good for American consumers. "When doing business with China, it is difficult to say who is the winner and who is the loser. .
Schaefer said: "For example, when you talk about American companies or multinational companies that produce products in China, is it the Chinese that have the advantage or the interests of a certain company that have the advantage? If the United States gets the benefits, whether China continues to support Our budget deficit still provides American consumers with cheaper products, so is this an advantage for the United States or for China? This is more complicated than who has the upper hand and who has the upper hand. "Pollution losses are equivalent to 5.8% of GDP. A serious problem caused by China's ultra-rapid economic development is the environmental damage and pollution it has brought to China and other countries around the world. Water pollution and a lack of clean drinking water are some of the most serious problems facing China. Many canals, rivers and lakes in China are severely polluted by agriculture, industry and domestic life. An estimated 20% of Chinese people live in severely polluted areas. According to Chinese government calculations, the consequences of pollution cost $67 billion in 2004, equivalent to 3% of gross domestic product. According to World Bank statistics, pollution costs China the equivalent of 5.8% of its GDP every year. Nonetheless, many experts say that as the long-pent-up demand from China's huge population is gradually released, domestic demand will gradually increase, pushing China's economy to continue to maintain rapid growth in the coming decades. (
Hu Angang: The rise of China and its impact on the world
Source: Zhejiang Humanities Lecture Hall
How the "Chinese Dream" went from dream to reality< /p>
In 1949, Mao Zedong announced that the Chinese people, who accounted for one-fourth of the total human population, had stood up. The Chinese have always been a brave and hard-working nation, but they have fallen behind in modern times. This is completely backward. The result of oppression and exploitation by foreign imperialism and the reactionary government of the country at that time.
Seven years later, in 1956, Mao Zedong formally proposed the "Chinese Dream" in the article "In Memory of Dr. Sun Yat-sen". He said: In 45 years, when China enters the 21st century, China will become a powerful socialist industrial country... He also said, " And this kind of contribution has been too small for a long time in the past, which makes us feel ashamed."
After the efforts of several generations of people with lofty ideals, China's economy has entered a take-off stage since the reform and opening up, and its rapid development It has become an irreversible historical trend. It can be said that the 21st century is the era when China has made greater contributions to mankind. We are in such a great era.
So, a country with a population of 1.3 billion. What important impact will China's rapid and peaceful rise have on the world?
The U.S. National Intelligence Council spent more than a year making an important report titled "Mapping the Global Future." To describe who is drawing the world's economic geography in 2020, or who is influencing the world's geoeconomics and geopolitics, one of the most important elements is to explore the possibility of China and India becoming new important global players in 2020. . It gives the following example:
The possibility of China and India and other countries emerging as new important global players - similar to the unified Germany in the 19th century and the powerful United States in the 20th century. will change the geopolitical landscape, and its impact may be huge, just like what happened in the previous two centuries. The difference is that last time it was a Western development, this time it is a non-Western development. p>
Most people surveyed in this report predict that by 2020, China will surpass a single Western economic power (except the United States) in terms of gross national product; India's gross national product will surpass the European economies
Therefore, it is not only us who are observing, paying attention to, studying, and promoting China’s peaceful rise, the key is that the whole world is studying and paying attention to China’s peaceful rise. .
Today I would like to briefly discuss and introduce our research, thinking and analysis on China’s national conditions, China’s peaceful rise and China’s development path in recent years, divided into five aspects:
The life cycle of national development
There are two sources for proposing this concept. On the one hand, the theory comes from the product life cycle theory; the other source of understanding or practice is China’s peaceful rise itself. historical process. Then by combining the two, we propose the theory and background of the national development life cycle. In 1890, French sociologist Talde proposed an S-shaped curve of economic growth in his book "The Law of Imitation". Later, another scholar, Jordean, proposed a three-stage "product life cycle" (introduction, rapid expansion, and maturity). Later, different scholars proposed four stages, five stages, etc. on the product life cycle.
What we call the national life cycle is similar to the product life cycle theory. It is actually the result of national competition on a global scale. It is just an economic market, political market or other The market of meaning (also including the market of culture).
Assuming that only one country exists, or without considering competition from other countries, we can propose a five-stage theory.
This five-stage theory can show that the historical trajectory of a country's development is cyclical and can be divided into five stages. The first stage is called the preparation for growth period; the second stage is the rapid growth period; the third stage is the strong period; the fourth stage is the so-called slow development period; and the fifth stage is the weak period. The development of a country is like the life cycle of a product.
Let’s discuss some empirical analysis. When discussing empirical analysis, the first question is whether it is possible to measure the life cycle of a country. What indicators should be used to quantitatively reflect the life cycle of a country and the competitive situation between country A and country B? Our national conditions research or global research must conduct quantitative research, which depends on the indicators determined quantitatively. Based on the research of world economic history experts Madison and Bobairizzi, we boil it down to five main indicators:
The first is the proportion of the total economic volume in the world, which is obvious It is a measure of a country's economic rise; the second is the proportion of total exports to the world's total, which shows the degree of a country's trade competitiveness in the international market; the third is the total industry or manufacturing industry's share of the world's total The proportion of , which indicates the degree of industrialization of a country; the fourth is population size; the fifth is one of our own studies, which is comprehensive national strength (I will discuss and analyze it in detail later). After using the above five indicators to measure and analyze several major countries in the world, we found that there is indeed a national development life cycle.
The life cycle of the development of the world's major powers
The path that Britain has taken is what we call an inverted U-shaped historical trajectory. Obviously, its proportion in the world total was relatively low before 1750, and then increased, especially reaching the world's peak in the 19th century. Therefore, we can see that when Britain launched the Industrial Revolution in 1750, it was actually the world's first industrial revolution. The proportion of British manufacturing in the world's total increased rapidly and reached its peak in the mid-19th century. Then Britain could not maintain its position for a long time. It declined due to competition from other countries, especially the United States.
For the second type of country, let’s take a look at the historical development trajectory of Germany. It rises twice. The first rise was after the relative unification of Germany in the 19th century, and the proportion of various indicators in the world was rising. Of course, it was defeated in the First World War. In the Second World War, its attempt to rise through war failed, and it rose again in 1945 or, to be precise, after 1950. The previous rises may have been war-related and predatory rises, but after 1950, can we call them relatively peaceful rises, or mainly economic rises?
Looking at the rise of the United States, it is obviously also remarkable. In 1820, it was an insignificant country in the world. However, after 1870, especially after the Civil War, it unified the country. Political unification provided prerequisites for the formation of a unified economic market. We find that its economy took off rapidly after 1870 until 1913, and its population also increased rapidly. After World War II, the United States became the biggest winner again, with various indicators accounting for a very high proportion of the world.
There is also the rise of Russia, China and India.
Comprehensive national strength and national strategic resources
Here we use comprehensive national strength indicators (eight categories of strategic resources, 23 indicators) to analyze the dynamic changes and relative comprehensiveness of five countries from 1980 to 2003. There are four main types of changes in national power.
The first type is China and India, which is called the rising type. In the past 20 years, China's share of the world's comprehensive national strength has increased by 4 percentage points, and India has increased by 1 percentage point. Therefore, it belongs to the rising type.
The second type we call rise first and then decline, which is the Japanese type. In 1980, its comprehensive national strength accounted for 6% of the world's total. By 1995, it reached 8.5%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points. However, in the 1990s, due to the bubble economy, it began to decline rapidly, falling to 7%.
The third type is Russia, the descending type. It declined from 1990 to 2000 and started to rise in the past few years, but overall it has changed from a world-class power to a second-class country.
The fourth type is what we call the United States, the super hegemon. Its comprehensive national strength is still at its peak or strong stage as a proportion of the world's total. But it is difficult to say whether it will enter a period of decline in the future. Now it has an absolute advantage in terms of technical resources, but we have also found that we are relatively strong in export capabilities, while its export capabilities have accounted for a declining share of the world market.
From our point of view, the rapid rise in comprehensive national strength over the past few years has generally improved China’s strategic environment. The comprehensive national strength is higher than that of neighboring countries to varying degrees, including in recent years it has been higher than that of Japan. national power.