Interest rate forecasting method is to obtain the maximum profit by constantly forecasting the change of interest rate and changing the maturity date of securities invested by banks at any time. When interest rates are expected to rise, banks buy short-term securities in order to sell them in time when interest rates rise in the future, and then invest in other assets with high interest rates; When the expected interest rate falls, they will buy long-term securities, so that bank assets will still have higher returns when interest rates fall in the future, or sell securities to realize capital gains.

The interest rate expectation method requires investors to frequently enter the securities market according to the predicted future interest rate changes, and the transaction cost of bank securities investment increases. Compared with the barbell strategy, banks must have stronger forecasting ability, investment management ability and trading ability in order to successfully use this method. This method may also lead to short-sighted behavior of banks, focusing only on short-term returns and ignoring long-term returns of securities investment. For example, in the stage of economic recovery, the short-term interest rate is at a low level, and the top management of banks requires to invest in long-term securities to increase the current income, but this is actually because banks lock their funds in low-interest securities and reduce the long-term income. In addition, this method is not operable when the market interest rate fluctuates frequently.