In 20 14, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar fell by 0.36%, and the spot exchange rate fell by 2.42%, which was the first annual depreciation of the central parity rate and spot exchange rate since the RMB exchange reform in 2005. At the beginning of the new year, the RMB continued to depreciate.

This round of RMB depreciation is mainly caused by China's economic fundamentals. In 20 14, China's economic growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points over the previous year, the lowest since 1990. 20 15 China's economic operation pressure is still relatively high. Overcapacity, declining corporate profits, uncertainty of real estate market and rapid growth of local and corporate debts will all restrict economic growth. It is expected that the annual economic growth rate will continue to decline, and some months may fall below the 7% mark. At the same time, the slowdown in foreign trade exports and the withdrawal of cross-border arbitrage funds, as well as the increase in foreign exchange holdings and exchange volume of enterprises and residents, have also reduced foreign exchange reserves. Relevant data show that the export value of China in 20 14 increased by 4.9% over the previous year, which was lower than expected. By the end of 20 14 and 12, the balance of China's foreign exchange reserves was US$ 3.84 trillion, declining for two consecutive quarters. Among them, the increase of foreign exchange reserves in 20 14 was only $20 billion, the lowest since 10. Affected by this, in 20 14 12 years, the foreign exchange holdings of Chinese financial institutions showed a negative growth of 1 183 billion yuan.

As the above fundamental factors are difficult to disappear for the time being, especially due to the impact of the European QE and the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, the RMB exchange rate will continue to face greater pressure in the next stage.

At the present stage, RMB depreciation can enhance the export competitiveness of China's goods and services, stimulate or slow down the growth rate of foreign trade exports, promote domestic industrial production and logistics transportation, curb the excessive growth of some commodity imports, and enhance cost support, so it is conducive to steady economic growth and prevent deflation. Otherwise, the appreciation of RMB will inevitably increase the resistance of commodity exports, aggravate imported deflation and increase the pressure on the domestic market, which is not conducive to stable economic growth. Since RMB depreciation at this stage is caused by fundamentals and is conducive to steady economic growth, we should follow the trend and promote RMB depreciation moderately.

Theoretical analysis:

Positive factors of RMB depreciation

(1) In recent years, the effect of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies is not ideal, effective demand has not been effectively started, and deflation has occurred. RMB depreciation can better coordinate with domestic policies, reinforce each other rather than offset each other, and promote China's economy to enter a virtuous circle.

(B) RMB depreciation can improve exports, expand external demand and promote employment.

(3) On the whole, it plays a certain role in reducing the government debt and the bad credit burden of the banking industry.

(4) Attracting foreign direct investment.

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