Bill? Gates
On February 14, 2006, Goldman Sachs published its global economic research reportNo. 138, "Will China get old before it gets rich?" It is pointed out that "by 2027, when China enters an aging society, its per capita GDP (2005 price) has exceeded $654.38+0,000 in all (predicted) scenarios, which indicates that it will become a veritable developed economy ... By 2030, ... it is estimated that China's per capita GDP will be $265,438 +0.626 (.
This is not the most optimistic prediction. On May 25 this year, Lin Yifu, director of Peking University Economic Research Center, said: "By 2030, China's GDP will surpass that of the United States." We know that the GDP of the United States in 2005 was US$ 654.38+US$ 227.76 million, more than four times that of US$ 654.38+US$ 0.980. If the United States keeps this pace, GDP will quadruple in 25 years, and GDP will reach more than $50 trillion. Lin Yifu's prediction means that by 2030, China's GDP will definitely exceed 50 trillion US dollars. What was the population of China at that time? I am afraid it will not exceed1600 million? Then the per capita will be more than 30 thousand dollars.
I didn't expect it to take so long. The farther away things are, the harder it is to grasp. I just think that after 10 years, China's per capita GDP will exceed 10000 US dollars, whether calculated by purchasing power parity (PPP method) or converted at the current exchange rate; China will truly enter the ranks of developed countries.
First of all, from the perspective of purchasing power parity.
According to the data released by the International Monetary Fund, in the 25 years since 1980, China's GDP has increased from $445 1 billion to $94 124 billion, with an average annual growth rate of 12.98%. The gross domestic product of the United States increased from $2,750.4 billion to1227.76 billion, with an average annual growth rate of 665.438+07%.
Assuming that in the next 10 year, the two countries will maintain the average growth rate in the past (it seems that there is no problem), by 20 15 year, we will see a completely different scene from today, as shown in the following table (unit: 100 million US dollars).
China and the United States are
2005 94 124 122776
2006 10634 1 13035 1
2007 120 144 138394
2008 135739 146933
2009 153357 155998
20 10 173263 165624
20 1 1 195753 175843
20 12 22 1 162 186692
20 13 249868 1982 1 1
20 14 28230 1 2 1044 1
20 15 3 18944 223425
With the help of this table, we can easily draw the conclusion that:
1. By 2008, China's per capita GDP will exceed the 1 billion dollar mark.
2. By 20 10, China's economic scale will once again surpass that of the United States, ranking first in the world.
Considering the "Olympic bonus" brought by the Beijing Olympic Games, the economic growth rate of China may increase in the next 3-5 years. In other words, it will be easier to achieve the above goals.
Second, judging from the current exchange rate.
There is no need to discuss the long-term trend of the inevitable appreciation of RMB, which has been formed in the economic circle and has been incorporated into the national monetary policy. The crux of the problem is: at what price and at what speed will the RMB appreciate?
Generally speaking, the current currency exchange rate of an economy approaches the purchasing power parity exchange rate with the increase of its per capita income level, and there is a strict positive correlation between them.
This conclusion can be fully confirmed by the relationship between currency exchange rate and per capita income of countries with different development levels in 2005:
National purchasing power parity exchange rate/current exchange rate purchasing power parity per capita GDP/US per capita GDP
Rwanda 0. 18 0.03
Egypt 0.30 0. 10
Kazakhstan
Poland 0.6 1
Oman 0.74 0.4 1
Korea 0.80 0.50
Singapore 0.95 0.68
Canada 1.02 0.83
Ireland 1. 19
Usa 1.02
Last year, China's GDP(PPP per capita (PPP method) was 0. 18 times that of the United States, which was close to that of Kazakhstan, but the ratio of RMB PPP exchange rate to current exchange rate was only 0.24, far below the proper level of 0.4-0.45.
According to the data provided by the World Bank, the United Nations Development Programme and the International Monetary Fund, the PPP exchange rate of RMB in 2005 was 1.905: 1 USD. In other words, China's current exchange rate should be reasonably positioned at 4.76-4.23 yuan: 1 USD.
From another perspective, South Korea's development experience can also provide useful enlightenment: in the early 1980s, South Korea's per capita GDP(PPP method) was equivalent to that of the United States 1/5, which was similar to the current level of China. At that time, the exchange rate of Korean won against the US dollar was equivalent to about 0.6 times of its PPP exchange rate. Since then, the per capita income of South Korea has gradually increased to about 50% of that of the United States, and the exchange rate has fluctuated around 0.8 times that of PPP in recent years.
No matter from which angle, it is an indisputable fact that the current RMB exchange rate is extremely low. The low exchange rate has caused the cheap export of national wealth, the irrational growth of foreign trade scale and foreign exchange reserves, the slow improvement of people's living standards and the increasing international friction, which are bringing more and more negative effects to the reform and opening up. Fortunately, the national decision-making level has realized this problem, and has clearly stated that it will promote exchange rate liberalization and gradually realize the free convertibility of RMB.
According to the PPP method, by 20 10 and 20 15 years, the per capita income level of China will be roughly equivalent to 0.25 times and 0.38 times that of the United States. Accordingly, on these two points, the reasonable price of RMB against USD should be determined as 0.45 times and 0.65 times of PPP exchange rate.
Based on this calculation, by 20 10, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will be 4.23: 1, which is 48% higher than the current one, with an average annual rate of 8. 16%. It seems high, but it is nothing compared with the appreciation of the yen in the 1970s and 1980s. This speculation is based on low inflation. If the inflation rate rises, as South Korea and Taiwan Province Province did in 1980s and 1990s, the appreciation of exchange rate can be appropriately slowed down. Inflation rate and exchange rate appreciation are equivalent to GDP scale enlargement. By 20 15, the RMB exchange rate will reach 2.93 yuan pair 1, with an appreciation of 30.7% in five years, with an average annual rate of 5.5 1%.
In this way, the rate of exchange rate appreciation in the next 10 year is determined.
From 1994 to 2005, the GDP of China increased from US$ 559.2 billion to US$ 2,256.4 billion, with an average annual growth rate of 13.52%. In the next 10 year, China's economy will continue to maintain its current development trend, and there is basically no objection from the economic circles. There are even many people who worry that the possibility of overheating in the future will increase due to the intensified competition between the Olympic Games and the World Expo, as well as the local economic "princes". In the first half of this year, the growth rate reached a new high of 10, which is an obvious sign.
According to the above analysis, in the future 10, China's dollar-denominated GDP will continue to increase at an average comprehensive growth rate of more than 20% (see the forecast of China's economic scale in 2020), thus promoting the unprecedented "big expansion" of China's economic scale.
The following is the forecast table (unit: USD 100 million):
Current price of GDP in that year
2005 22564
2006 27705
2007 340 17
2008 4 1767
2009 5 1283
20 10 62967
20 1 1 754 18
20 12 90332
20 13 108 195
20 14 12959 1
20 15 1552 18
Obviously, by 20 15, China's per capita income will break through the 10000 dollar mark in both substance and name.
Will China get old before it gets rich? It is also pointed out: "... economists regard the per capita GDP of $65,438+$0,000 as an important milestone in the development stage, and think that developed countries are the ones that exceed this level. In fact, this seemingly random scale can really distinguish developing countries from developed countries. The economies above this line are indeed relatively developed, and they are very similar in terms of departmental output ratio, urbanization, life expectancy, wealth, capital allocated per unit labor time, and development of education and service sectors. "
Needless to say, in 20 15 years, China has become a developed country.
By then, China's reform and opening up has been going on for 37 years. As we all know, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan Province Province, Singapore, Hongkong ... After more than 30 years of rapid development, we have become developed economies, and we are just following in the footsteps of others.
Bill? Gates famously said that people often overestimate the changes after two years, but underestimate the changes after ten years. Today in 2006, it is predicted that China will become a developed country in 10 years. Many people will be dumbfounded and feel incredible. In fact, this is nothing, just because of economic laws.
Using the same calculation method, you will actually find that in 2020, China will surpass the United States to become the world's largest economic power, and China's per capita GDP will reach about $23,000.
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Don't be too pessimistic. In fact, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar in 1980 was 1.5: 1, and in 2005 it was 8.2: 1. If you look at the data of China's economy in 1980, you will find that China's GDP at that time had reached 310 billion US dollars.
In other words, China's economy didn't develop during the 1980s, which is obviously untenable. It is precisely because of the devaluation that China's economy did not seem to grow at all throughout the 1980s.