How to effectively avoid exchange rate risk in international trade
Exchange rate fluctuation is the main cause of exchange rate risk. Frequent and violent exchange rate fluctuations will bring great stability to international trade enterprises. When they use foreign exchange in trade activities, they may cause serious economic losses due to exchange rate fluctuations. Therefore, how to avoid the risks brought by exchange rate has become the focus of international trade enterprises. This paper aims to analyze the exchange rate in the process of international trade, and then put forward effective suggestions and measures to avoid exchange rate risks, so as to better promote the development of international trade enterprises. Keywords: international trade; Foreign trade enterprises; Exchange rate fluctuation; Exchange rate risk Exchange rate fluctuation is the main reason for exchange rate risk. Frequent and violent exchange rate fluctuations will bring great changes to international trade enterprises. When they use foreign exchange in trade activities, they may cause serious economic losses due to exchange rate changes. Therefore, how to avoid the risks brought by exchange rate has become the focus of international trade enterprises. This paper aims to analyze the exchange rate in the process of international trade, and then put forward effective suggestions and measures to avoid exchange rate risks, so as to better promote the development of international trade enterprises. I. The basic forms of exchange rate changes in the world today In today's international trade activities, most trade activities are based on US dollars. Therefore, it is necessary to fully consider the exchange rate changes of RMB against the US dollar in the process of studying how Chinese international trade enterprises avoid exchange rate risks. Due to the relatively frequent exchange rate changes in recent years, it is necessary to estimate the required expenses and final profits relatively accurately before trade settlement to avoid the losses caused by exchange rate changes. (1) The pressure of RMB appreciation is enormous. Judging from the current situation, the RMB is facing greater appreciation pressure. Many countries believe that the undervalued RMB makes China's export products very competitive, which has a certain impact on the industries of many countries in the world. At the same time, due to the undervaluation of RMB, China has a trade surplus every year, and China's RMB should appreciate to improve the trade situation of other countries. (2) The continuous depreciation of the US dollar because the US dollar now belongs to the main currency on which international trade depends. In the world financial system dominated by the US dollar, the depreciation of the US dollar means the appreciation of other countries' currencies. Under such a system, the United States can print money unscrupulously to improve the domestic economic situation and improve people's welfare, which will inevitably lead to the fiscal deficit of the United States. Because of this idea of the United States, its currency circulation is increasing, and the momentum of the continued depreciation of the dollar is still there. (3) China lacks a perfect exchange rate system. With the development of economy, China's exchange rate system has been reformed to some extent. The exchange rate is more flexible than before, but it still shows obvious rigidity on the whole. Due to the reform of the overall exchange rate system, a large amount of capital will inevitably flow into China. The central bank must increase its foreign exchange reserves for adjustment. After this series of measures, the total money supply will exceed the due standard, and the potential inflationary pressure will increase. Second, the status quo of enterprises avoiding risks in international trade In order to avoid the exchange rate risks of China enterprises in international trade, we must first understand the status quo of enterprises avoiding exchange rate risks in China. Only in this way can we put forward targeted solutions and better promote the development of international trade of Chinese enterprises. (A) Chinese enterprises generally lack the awareness of avoiding risks. From the current international trade process of enterprises in China, we can fully realize that most enterprises in China are relatively less sensitive to exchange rate risks, and their awareness of risk prevention is relatively poor compared with that of most foreign enterprises. In the sensitive period of exchange rate changes, that is, after the appreciation of RMB, many enterprises engaged in international trade in China have suffered losses to varying degrees, but these enterprises have not learned from their mistakes and sought effective ways to avoid exchange rate risks. Therefore, in today's fierce international competition, most enterprises in China can only be in a passive situation. (2) China enterprises lack experience in avoiding risks. After the appreciation of RMB, some enterprises affected by exchange rate changes in international trade have realized their own shortcomings. However, it has not achieved good results. This is mainly because most enterprises in China are relatively small in scale, and in international trade transactions, funds are usually settled by telegraphic transfer. And most of them are settled immediately after receiving the remittance, which is carried out in a very short time. However, small enterprises in China rarely use financial instruments such as currency swap, option trading and currency selection in international trade, which leads to their relative lack of effective experience in preventing exchange rate risks in international trade. (3) Bank products can not meet the needs of enterprise development. In international trade, they mostly rely on banks for payment and settlement. So far, banks in China have launched a series of effective products to avoid exchange rate risks, such as forward swaps and settlement and sale of foreign exchange. However, the design of these products does not take into account the current situation of Chinese enterprises engaged in international trade, which makes the products designed by banks to avoid exchange rate risks seem unreasonable, with relatively short term, relatively high threshold and relatively simple structure, which can not meet the diversified needs of Chinese enterprises in international trade at all, resulting in many small and medium-sized enterprises completely unable to avoid exchange rate risks. (d) There are few professionals engaged in exchange rate risk research. Judging from the current specific situation, there is a lack of professionals specializing in exchange rate risk research among enterprises engaged in international trade in China, which leads to the lack of good sensitivity to the exchange rate risk that enterprises are about to face, and the lack of understanding and understanding of the risks that enterprises have to bear, which has caused great losses to enterprises. Third, the main measures to avoid exchange rate risks in international trade Through the above analysis of RMB appreciation and USD depreciation, we can fully see what kind of exchange rate risks RMB appreciation will bring to China's international trade when settling foreign exchange, and how to effectively avoid exchange rate risks. The author believes that avoiding exchange rate risk needs to be analyzed from both micro and macro aspects. (I) Main measures to avoid risks at the micro level First of all, in view of the exchange rate risk in international trade, it is necessary to start from the enterprise itself and fully improve its own ability and quality, which is the basis for solving the exchange rate risk. Therefore, enterprises engaged in international trade must introduce a group of professionals with high professional quality and strong technical quality to evaluate and predict the upcoming international trade, make an independent judgment on the exchange rate by increasing the input of information, and also need to establish a reasonable risk management concept among enterprises to determine their most favorable products for international trade. Second, in the process of international trade settlement, you can choose a variety of forms. In order to deal with the losses and adverse effects that exchange rate risks may bring to enterprises more effectively, forex futures trading hedging and RMB settlement scope should be adopted in settlement. In order to better ensure that China enterprises can better carry out international trade and avoid the risks brought by the exchange rate when the RMB continues to appreciate. (2) The main measures to avoid risks at the macro level are mainly discussed from two aspects to avoid exchange rate risks at the macro level, so as to reduce unnecessary losses caused by exchange rates. First of all, avoiding exchange rate risks at the macro level requires a combination of short-term measures and long-term measures. The main purpose of short-term measures is to keep the exchange rate relatively stable in the short term and not to fluctuate too much. This requires the following aspects: first, the government must adhere to the exchange rate system of a basket of currencies, that is to say, it must give the market a clear law of currency exchange rate changes, so that the market can have a certain understanding of currency exchange rate changes and make solutions in advance. Secondly, the floating range of exchange rate can be expanded in a certain period of time, and it should be promised to remain unchanged for a certain period of time, so that enterprises can help in the process of international trade and better organize production. Finally, through foreign exchange reserves, the country can make the exchange rate change repeatedly within a narrow range, which can effectively avoid exchange rate risks to a certain extent. However, these measures cannot completely eradicate the exchange rate risk. Second, short-term measures can alleviate exchange rate risks in the short term. Therefore, in order to better promote the development of China's international trade, we must take long-term measures to manage and control the exchange rate and make it develop according to market rules. First of all, we should expand the floating space of exchange rate. The expansion of floating space will help the central bank to better warn of exchange rate changes, achieve the goal of internal imbalance, and at the same time adopt corresponding policies to promote the adjustment of domestic economic structure. Secondly, the probability of unilateral appreciation of RMB under market rules is very small, so we should strengthen our own strength, identify market rules and make certain choices in avoiding exchange rate risks in international trade. Finally, enterprises should strengthen the study of exchange rate, establish a perfect early warning mechanism of currency exchange rate, strengthen the guidance of enterprise production, and better promote enterprise development.