The main indicators to measure financial security are:
1. debt service ratio. In the traditional sense, the debt service ratio refers to the ratio of the current foreign debt principal and interest payments to the current year's export revenue of goods and services. Internationally, it is generally considered safe for this indicator to be below 20%. Since this calculation method only considers the impact of the current account on debt solvency, which is far from the current reality of increasingly frequent international capital flows, the revised debt servicing ratio II = current year's principal and interest payments/current year's foreign exchange reserves . Since foreign exchange reserves come from current accounts and capital accounts, they can provide debt repayment guarantees in the short term and are more appropriate as the denominator. It is generally believed that a debt service ratio II of no more than 30-50% is a safe line.
2. Debt ratio. It is the ratio of a country's current year's foreign debt balance to its current year's export revenue of goods and services. This is the main reference indicator for measuring a country's debt capacity and risk. The internationally recognized debt-to-export ratio is 100%. If it exceeds 100%, it means that the foreign debt burden is excessive.
3. Debt ratio. It refers to the ratio of a country's current year's foreign debt balance to that year's gross domestic product (GDP), indicating the degree of dependence of a country's economic development on foreign debt. The internationally recognized maximum limit is 10%. Sometimes the debt ratio is expressed as the ratio of the external debt balance to the gross national product (GNP). The general reference safety value is below 20%.
4. Short-term debt ratio. It refers to the proportion of short-term debt with a maturity of one year and less in the current year's external debt balance. This is an indicator to measure whether a country’s foreign debt term structure is safe and reasonable. The internationally recognized short-term debt ratio is below 25%.
5. Other Measuring Indicators In addition to the above-mentioned commonly used indicators to measure a country's debt solvency and affordability, there are some other measuring indicators for reference:
(1) Foreign exchange reserves/external debt balance . This is an important indicator that reflects a country's repayment ability. The international warning line range is 30-50%, with an increase or decrease of 10% as the warning line.
(2) Foreign exchange reserves/short-term external debt. This is an important indicator of a country's ability to repay debt quickly. The international warning line for this indicator is no less than 100%. Based on this, an increase or decrease of 100% is used as the warning line. In addition, it is generally believed that when foreign exchange reserves exceed 5 times the balance of short-term external debt, huge economic losses will be suffered due to a large amount of idle resources. Therefore, when foreign exchange reserves/short-term external debt >500%, financial security drops to " risk" status.
(3) Current account balance/GDP. This indicator mainly reflects the competitiveness of a country's foreign economic sector. If the deficit as a percentage of GDP continues to be too large, it means that its foreign exchange-earning sector is at a disadvantage in competition. A persistently large current account deficit constitutes a major factor in a country's economic external balance. For countries that implement a fixed exchange rate system or a pegged exchange rate system, in order to reach a new equilibrium, their exchange rate may suddenly depreciate significantly under the trigger of a certain factor, triggering a financial crisis. Internationally, it is generally considered that no more than 5% is safe. This shall prevail, with an increase or decrease of 1% as the warning line.
(4) Foreign exchange reserves/M2. This indicator is an indicator that measures the adequacy of foreign exchange reserves based on the principle of supply and demand balance (meaning that a country's foreign exchange reserves can not only ensure normal international balance of payments, but also effectively withstand the impact of financial crises). There is no unified international standard for this indicator. Based on China's experience, domestic scholars use 12% as the benchmark, with an increase or decrease of 3% as the warning line.
(5) (FDI + current account balance)/GDP. The composition of capital flows and the degree of openness of a country's capital market have become important factors in the stability of a country's external economic sector. It will have different consequences whether to use foreign direct investment to cover the current account deficit or to use portfolio investment that is prone to flight to make up for it. The higher the proportion of foreign direct investment, the less likely the recipient country will suffer from sudden capital flight. The internationally recognized reasonable range is -2.5%-5%, which shall prevail, with an increase or decrease of 1% as the warning line.