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The measures taken by the Russian central bank to stabilize the exchange rate have achieved initial results.
People in the industry can obviously find many reasons for the ruble's big counterattack. Since the outbreak of this geopolitical conflict, the Russian central bank has taken a series of measures to curb the damage caused by the isolation of the Russian economy by the West, including temporary capital control measures to prevent cash from flowing out of Russia.
Dmitry Polevoy, investment director of Locko-Invest, said that the tightening of capital controls and sanctions has not become more serious, which has provided support for the Russian ruble.
Brendan McKenna, foreign exchange strategist at Wells Fargo, said that the recent appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is a sign that capital controls may begin to work. He said: "The purpose of capital control is to keep the US dollar in Russia, and at the same time, it also restricts the ruble from being converted into US dollars." "If the ruble cannot be sold, under the huge selling pressure, the value of the ruble will be supported and the exchange rate of the ruble will be stabilized."
Peg the ruble to gold
On the 28th, the Russian central bank resumed buying gold from banks, and the transaction will be conducted at a fixed price of 5,000 rubles per gram. In the international market, the price of gold is more than 6,000 rubles per gram, which means that if you want to buy Russian natural gas, you can only "discount" gold to Russia. This will not only support the ruble exchange rate, but also concentrate more gold and accelerate dollarization.
Restrict domestic capital outflow
Russia's central bank said in a statement last weekend that Russia has taken corresponding measures to limit the flow of 300 billion US dollars of funds to "unfriendly countries" because the West has frozen some of Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves. The Russian government prohibits foreign investors from selling securities and withdraws funds from the Russian financial system.
Alexander Razuvayev, a Russian financial analyst, said that under the current situation, foreign investors could not withdraw funds from Russian overseas assets and projects, which reduced the pressure on the ruble, thus supporting the domestic currency and economic development.
Without roubles, there would be no natural gas.
On March 23rd, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that when Russia supplies natural gas to all "unfriendly" countries and regions, including the European Union, it will switch to rubles for settlement. At the same time, he ordered the government to approve an instruction to modify the existing natural gas supply contract of Gazprom, that is, before March 3 1, the payment currency will be changed to Russian ruble, "while maintaining the supply, price and pricing principles stipulated in the contract".
On the 28th, local time, German Chancellor Angela Scholz said in an interview with the media that all EU countries are dependent on Russian supply at present, and Germany is trying to get rid of its dependence on Russian coal and oil this year, and is ready to get rid of its dependence on Russian natural gas as soon as possible.
Vice Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation: The era of regional currency is coming.
Medvedev, vice chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, said that it is no longer a distant fantasy to give up using the US dollar and the euro (1.162, 0.0005, 0.04%) as the world reserve currency. The era of regional currency is coming, and the major countries in the world need to reach an agreement on a new financial order.
Russia: How dependent are European countries on Russian natural gas?
Related question and answer: How much is 1 ruble? How much is a ruble today? According to the current real-time exchange rate: 1 Russian ruble =0.0 175 USD, subject to the transaction price at the bank counter.