BRICs Chart and Introduction
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The term "BRIC" was first put forward by Jim O 'Neill, chief economist of Goldman Sachs Securities Company, in the book "The World Needs Better Economic BRIC" published on October 20th, 2006/KLOC-0. In June 2003, the company predicted in the global economic report entitled "Dream with BRICS: The Road to 2050" that BRICS countries will dominate the world economy in 2050, among which: Brazil will replace Italy's economic status in 2025, with 203 1 surpassing France; Russia will surpass Britain in 2027 and Germany in 2028; If nothing happens, China may surpass the United States as the world's largest economic power in 204 1, and India may surpass Japan in 2032; The total GDP of BRIC countries may surpass that of the six western industrial countries (except Canada in G7) in 204 1 year. In this way, by 2050, the world economic structure will be reshuffled, and the new six global economies will become China, the United States, India, Japan, Brazil and Russia.
This economic report by Goldman Sachs has made China, India, Russia and Brazil, as representatives of emerging economies and leaders of developing countries, attract more attention in the world, and therefore the name BRIC has become popular all over the world.
On June 5438+February 1 day, 2005, Goldman Sachs released a new report. How stable are the BRIC countries? ) said that the BRIC countries do seem to be making faster progress than other developing countries (big or small). Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast accordingly: China will surpass the United States in 2040 (slightly faster than the forecast in 2003), while India will surpass Japan in 2033 (slightly slower than the previous forecast, because Japan's economic situation is improving).
With the birth of the new concept of BRICS, South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun (deceased) led hundreds of heavyweight political and business people to launch BRICS diplomacy. In 2005, the G7 finance ministers' meeting invited representatives of BRIC countries to attend for the first time. Therefore, the global chessboard of multinational companies such as Toyota Motor Corporation of Japan has been redeployed. Judging from the current situation, the economic development speed of the BRIC countries is just the opposite of the alphabetical order of the word "BRIC". China is far ahead, followed by India and Russia, and Brazil is relatively tepid. From a broader perspective, the economic performance of at least the top three countries is enough to stand out among all G7 countries, and the annual "net growth" of Russia and India can exceed that of the Netherlands today. According to statistics, Russia's foreign exchange reserves have reached 280 billion US dollars, which has exceeded the sum of EU member states.
From June 14 to June 16, 2009, the first foreign ministers' meeting of BRIC countries was held in Yekaterinburg, Russia. During the meeting, the foreign ministers of the four countries held extensive discussions on the international economic and financial situation, energy security and environmental issues, disarmament and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, international trade and reform of international organizations. After the meeting, the foreign ministers of the BRIC countries will sign a joint statement, indicating the unified position of the four countries on urgent issues such as world development and international security.
Interpretation of Chinese-English dictionary
BRIC countries (Brazil, Russian Federation, Indian and China)
BRIC BRICs (Brazil, Russian, Indian and China)
1. This year, the car sales of BRIC countries should surpass that of the United States.
By this year, the BRIC countries should buy more cars than the United States.
Brazil, another so-called BRICS country, is one of the few countries that want to reach an agreement.
Brazil, another country in the so-called BRIC countries, is one of the few countries that hope to reach an agreement.
The plan aims to take advantage of the high growth rate of the so-called BRIC countries (Brazil, Russian, Indian and China).
The company's intention is to gain some benefits from the rapid growth of the so-called BRIC countries (Brazil, Russian, Indian and China).
Thanks to BRIC countries, a record 65% of GM's sales in the first quarter came from outside the United States.
Thanks to its huge sales in BRIC countries, it accounted for a record 65% of GM's sales in the first quarter, surpassing the United States.
The mature automobile market may be close to saturation, but there is huge unmet demand in the large emerging automobile markets of Brazil, Russian, Indian and China (so-called BRIC countries).
The mature automobile market may be close to saturation, but there is huge unmet demand in the emerging automobile markets of Brazil, Russian, Indian and China (the so-called BRIC countries).
Research report of BRIC countries
According to the research report of Goldman Sachs, China, Russian Federation, Brazil and India have excellent economic development prospects, and the four countries will rank among the strongest economies in the world in 2050. This research report was written by Jim O 'Neill, a global economist at Goldman Sachs. BRIC countries are all important emerging market countries. There are similar views on many international and regional issues. In recent years, their economies have grown rapidly and their international status has been continuously improved. The four countries have unique advantages in area, population, resources and market. The land area of the four countries accounts for 26% of the world's total territory and the population accounts for 42% of the world's total population. According to IMF statistics, from 2006 to 2008, the average economic growth rate of the four countries was 10.7%. All four countries have important influence in international affairs.
It is predicted that these four countries will have more than 40% of the world's population and their GDP will be 14438+0 trillion US dollars. In any case, they will become the largest economic entity in the world. However, it must be pointed out that these four countries are neither a political union like the European Union nor a trade union like ASEAN. However, the four countries gradually began to carry out political cooperation to strengthen their political status, such as influencing the decision-making of the United Nations; Or force the United States to make concessions through unwritten political cooperation agreements.
BRICs' Dream: The Road to 2050 (2003)
China, Russia, Brazil and India have changed or are changing their political systems to adapt to global capitalism. Goldman Sachs predicts that China and India will become the world's leading suppliers of manufactured goods and services respectively, while Brazil and Russia will correspondingly become the world's leading suppliers of raw materials. Since Brazil and Russia can provide China and India with the raw materials they need, the logical prediction indicates that the BRIC countries will cooperate more extensively. It is predicted that the BRIC countries will be able to form a powerful economic group, thus replacing the current position of the Group of Eight. Brazil is rich in soybeans and iron ore, while Russia is extremely rich in oil and gas resources.
As early as the end of the cold war or earlier, the governments of the BRIC countries began economic and political reforms to enable them to enter the world economy. In order to compete, these countries also emphasize education, introducing foreign capital, domestic consumption and developing domestic industries. I believe that India has the potential to become the fastest growing country among the BRIC countries in the next 30 to 50 years. One of the main reasons is that the working-age population in India and Brazil will decline later than that in Russia and China.
Follow-up report (2004)
Following the original BRIC research report in 2004, Goldman Sachs World Economic Group released a follow-up report. This new report takes the analysis results a step forward, focusing on the impact that the economic development of these four countries will bring to the world market. The report estimates that the share of BRIC countries in world economic growth will increase from 20% in 2003 to 40% in 2025. At the same time, the proportion of their economic aggregate in the world economy will rise from about 10% in 2004 to more than 20% in 2025. In addition, during the period from 2005 to 20 15, more than 800 million people in these countries will cross the threshold of annual income of $3,000. It is calculated that in 2025, there will be about 200 million people in these countries whose annual income will exceed $65,438+$5,000. Therefore, the market demand for Big bounce will not only affect the necessities of life, but also affect the brand products with higher prices. According to this report, China first, and India in ten years' time, will surpass the United States to become the largest automobile market in the world.
Although the balance of growth rate plays a decisive and positive role in the BRIC economies, the personal wealth level of advanced economic regions will continue to exceed the average level of the BRIC countries. Goldman Sachs estimates that by 2025, the annual income of G6[ 1] members of the Group of Six will exceed $35,000, but only 24 million residents of BRIC countries will reach the same income level. The report emphasizes the large-scale inefficiency of Indian energy and conspicuously mentions the minimal representation of BRIC countries in the global capital market. The contradiction in the past highlights the huge population of the BRIC countries, which makes the total wealth of the BRIC countries quite easy to be eclipsed by the member regions of the Six-Party Summit, while the annual income remains below the benchmark of today's industrial countries. The above phenomenon will continue to affect the global market; As multinational companies try to gain advantages from BRIC countries, such as producing cheap cars and other products that BRIC residents can afford from the huge potential market, they will replace expensive luxury car brands.
China-the factory of the world
China, a central country, is the most dynamic economic region in the world, attracting the most foreign investment and becoming the production base of the largest enterprise group in the world. China has 654.380+03 billion residents, which is the most populous country in the world. Abundant, cheap and reliable labor force has promoted China's economic prosperity. In addition to the unparalleled price advantage, the quality of employed people is also constantly improving. However, there is also a crisis hidden under the engine of world economic growth. Although the Bank of China has set loan restrictions, the hidden danger of overheating has not been eliminated; The huge income scissors difference between urban and rural areas and individuals also makes the development unbalanced and endangers social stability; Environmental pollution is becoming more and more serious. In addition, the China stock market lacks an independent and effective supervision mechanism, and the government manipulates the stock market; A series of problems, such as insufficient raw materials and energy, have created bottlenecks for China's economy.
Brazil-the world's raw material base
The gross national product of Brazil is the highest in Latin America. In addition to the traditional agricultural economy, the production and service industries are also booming, with natural advantages in raw material resources. Brazil has the highest reserves of iron, copper, nickel, manganese and bauxite in the world. In addition, emerging industries such as communications and finance are also on the rise. Cardoso, the former president of Brazil and leader of the Workers' Party, formulated a set of economic development strategies, which laid the foundation for the later economic revitalization. This reformed policy was later carried forward by the current President Lula, and its core contents are: introducing a flexible exchange rate system; Reform the medical and pension systems; Streamline the system of government officials. However, some critics believe that Xiao He's defeat, Xiao He's defeat, and the constant corruption and bribery within the Workers' Party have shaken the ruling foundation of the current government to a great extent. Is the economic take-off on the fertile soil of South America sustainable? The risks behind the opportunities are also enormous. Therefore, long-term investors based on the Brazilian market need strong nerves and enough patience.
India-World Office
India is the second most populous democracy in the world, and its stock market is growing at an unprecedented scale, with more than 6,000 listed companies. In the past 20 years, India's economy has grown steadily at an average annual rate of 5.6%. Behind the economic front is a high-quality employment army. According to preliminary statistics, in the eyes of about 23 million university graduates in India, western enterprises are becoming more and more attractive. One quarter of the largest 1000 companies in the United States use software developed in India. Indian pharmaceutical industry also occupies an important position in the global market. 40% of the world's "generic drugs" (drugs whose patent period has expired) are produced in India. This industry has driven disposable personal income to rise rapidly with a double-digit growth rate. At the same time, a number of middle classes have emerged in Indian society that pay attention to enjoyment and are willing to spend. In addition, some large-scale infrastructure projects, such as the 6000-kilometer-long expressway network and the booming export trade, have also provided powerful successors for economic development. Of course, the Indian economy also has weaknesses that cannot be ignored, such as imperfect infrastructure, high fiscal deficit, and excessive dependence on energy and raw materials. Politically, changes in social ethics and tensions in Kashmir may lead to economic turmoil.
Russia world gas station
The Russian economy, which experienced the 1998 financial crisis, is like a phoenix reborn from the ashes. In the recent international credit rating, it was rated as investment grade by Standard & Poor's, a famous securities research institution. The rise in oil and gas prices has undoubtedly put wings on the Russian economy. The exploitation and production of these two industrial veins control one-fifth of the national output today, creating 50% of the export trade output value and 40% of the national income. In addition, Russia is the largest producer of palladium, platinum and titanium. Similar to the situation in Brazil, the biggest threat to the Russian economy is also hidden in politics. Although Putin's government has successfully increased the gross national product by 30% during its five-year term, the disposable national income has also increased substantially, but the lack of democracy embodied by the government in handling the case of Jocks Oil Company has become a poison for long-term investment, which is tantamount to an invisible sword of Damocles. Although Russia has a vast territory and abundant resources, the government can't sit back and relax in the face of future development if it lacks the necessary institutional reforms to effectively curb corruption. If Russia is not satisfied with being a gas station in the world economy for a long time, it is imperative to devote itself to the process of modernization and reform and improve production efficiency. Investors should pay close attention to the changes in current economic policies, which is another important factor affecting Russian financial market besides raw material prices.
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