Main recommendations
What is the impact of the central bank's adjustment of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio?
The action plan for comprehensive control of air pollution in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and its surrounding areas in autumn and winter (20 18-20 19) was released, and the air control sector is worth looking forward to.
Market review
Market comment: Strong stocks make up for the decline, and they are cautiously chasing high in operation. It is recommended to kill high-quality growth stocks on dips.
Macro perspective: the central bank released the signal of stabilizing market expectations, and the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio was adjusted back to 20% from today.
Banking: The trade war suppressed investment sentiment, and the value of bank allocation increased.
Futures information
Metal energy: gold 270.30, down 0.06%; Copper 49370, up 0.14%; Rebar steel 4 163, up1.54%; Rubber 1 1 195, up by 2.42%; The PVC index was 7 150, up by 0.07%; Shanghai Aluminum 14465, up by 0.07%; Shanghai Nickel 1 10450, up by 0.66%; Crude oil was 5 18.6, up 2.15%; Manganese silicon 8572, an increase of 3.38%; Coking coal 1243.5, up by 3.93%; Coke was 2467.5, up 4.51%; Iron ore 504.5, up 4.67%; Zheng Chun 3246, up 4.81%;
Agricultural products: soybean oil 5792, up 0.80%; Corn 1867, up1.25%; Palm oil 4870, up 0.33%; Cotton 17 190, up1.30%; Zheng Mai 2643, up 2.20%; Sugar 5085, up1.34%; Late rice 2926, up 4.02%; Apple 1 1456, up 5.90%.
Exchange rate: Euro/USD 1. 16, down 0.03%; USD/RMB 6.84, up 0.16%; USD/HK$ 7.85, up 0.0 1%.
First, the new stock tips
20 18-08-07 No subscription for new shares.
Second, the key recommendation
1. What is the impact of the central bank's adjustment of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio?
Event: The Bank of China decided to adjust the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of forward sale of foreign exchange from 0 to 20% from August 6, 20 18. In the next step, we will continue to strengthen the monitoring of the foreign exchange market, and take effective measures to carry out countercyclical adjustment according to the needs of the development of the situation to keep the foreign exchange market running smoothly.
Comments: Foreign exchange risk reserve is one of the three tools to manage exchange rate fluctuations, and it is also an integral part of the macro-prudential framework. The reason why the central bank started the foreign exchange risk reserve tool again is clear. The central bank clearly pointed out in the announcement that this operation is mainly to "prevent macro-financial risks, promote the steady operation of financial institutions, and strengthen macro-prudential management." The impact of this move is also very direct: the increase of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio will increase the cost of purchasing foreign exchange in the forward period and shorting RMB, while the reduction of the scale of purchasing foreign exchange in the forward period will help reduce arbitrage transactions and stabilize exchange rate expectations. Raising the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio by the central bank will increase the cost of shorting RMB, and the superposition does not rule out the possibility of subsequent countercyclical adjustment, which has a strong inhibitory effect on the expectation of RMB depreciation. At present, the market has basically reached a consensus on the expectation of RMB exchange rate stabilization in the second half of the year.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
2. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas' comprehensive air pollution control action plan (20 18-20 19) was released, and the air control sector is worth looking forward to.
Event: On August 2, 20 18, the draft action plan for comprehensive air pollution control in autumn and winter of 2018/2019 in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and its surrounding areas was released. The air quality improvement target in 20 18 is:1October 20 18 to 20 1 to 201March 3, 91.The average concentration of PM2.5 in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and its surrounding areas decreased by about 5% year-on-year, and the number of days with severe pollution or above.
Comments: "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas 20 18-20 19 Autumn and Winter Air Pollution Comprehensive Control Action Plan (Draft for Comment)" was publicly released. This is the second year of the "26+2" urban heating season after the first centralized production restriction last year. Compared with the scheme in recent two years, the main differences are as follows: ① More emphasis on differentiated peak shifting production can achieve environmental protection standards, reduce peak production and enhance the enthusiasm of enterprises to invest in environmental protection; ② The peak shifting productivity of the steel industry exceeds last year, and the ultra-low emission of the steel industry will be promoted in an orderly manner, and the demand for ultra-low emission transformation in non-electric fields such as steel will be released; (3) The intensity of coal reform will not be reduced, so as to meet the demand and reform with gas to avoid problems such as "gas shortage"; ④ The adjustment of transportation structure and the new energy of sanitation vehicles will promote the demand growth of sanitation equipment. With the gradual deepening of air pollution control, the clean air market in China will usher in huge structural investment opportunities and become a new driving force for China's economic growth. Investors are advised to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the atmospheric management sector, and it is recommended to pay attention to the leading enterprises with strong financial and technical strength, whose advantages in taking orders are obviously stronger than the industry average, and their market share will increase steadily.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
Third, the market review
1, market comments: strong stocks make up for losses, and it is necessary to be cautious in chasing high. It is recommended to kill high-quality growth stocks on dips.
On Monday, the market was at 2700 points, and the index was rare for four consecutive yin. On the disk, except for a few sectors such as banks and telecommunications, the vast majority of sectors fell, with transportation, pesticides, medicine, food and beverage among the top losers. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 2705438+06 points, down1.29%; The Shenzhen Component Index reported 8422.84 points, down 2.08%; Growth enterprise market index reported 1440.8 points, down 2.75%. What does it mean for the market for powerful stocks to enter the market on a large scale to make up for the decline of the day? Making up for the decline of potential stocks often reflects that its high valuation system is finally difficult to maintain. Operation strategy: Considering that the trend of making up the losses of strong stocks and adjusting the poor stocks has not ended in a short time, it is still necessary to avoid the risk of stock fluctuation. It is suggested that investors with strong operational ability can lay out high-quality growth stocks with reasonable valuation on dips, while compared with ordinary investors, it is suggested to maintain the wait-and-see strategy. The stock market is risky, so you need to be cautious in investing.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)
2. Macro view: The central bank released a signal to stabilize the market expectation, and the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio was adjusted back to 20% from today.
Since today (August 6), the central bank has adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of forward foreign exchange sales business from 0 to 20%. The central bank said that the next step will be to continue to strengthen the monitoring of the foreign exchange market, take effective measures to carry out countercyclical adjustment according to the needs of the development of the situation, maintain the smooth operation of the foreign exchange market, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. (National Business Daily)
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)
3. Banking: The trade war suppressed investment sentiment and the value of bank allocation increased.
The market is greatly affected by the escalation of trade disputes between China and the United States, and banking stocks are dragged down by the market, but their performance is relatively firm. We believe that under the background that the effect of internal policy adjustment is still unclear and the impact of external shocks is uncertain, the allocation value of banking stocks as the first choice for value investment will be significantly improved. The main logic in the medium and long term includes: First, the policy environment is expected to continue to improve. Second, the scale of credit remained stable and the spread continued to differentiate. Third, improve asset quality, reduce provisions and release profits.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)
Statement: Company announcements, stock information, investment suggestions, research reports, strategy reports and other information provided by the Company are for reference only and do not constitute a bid or inquiry for securities trading. Investors should check them before using them at their own risk. The above information provided by our company strives to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the data, and does not guarantee that the latest changes have been made. Please refer to the information published by listed companies. Investors should make their own investment decisions, and the company will not bear legal responsibility for property losses caused by investors relying on the above information for investment decisions. Without the consent of our company, no organization or individual may reprint, publish, copy or abridge or modify the above information provided by our company in any form.