The second level is the real economy level. The latest World Economic Outlook report published by the International Monetary Fund on the 8th pointed out that the financial crisis is causing the world economy to enter a "serious downturn" period. The growth of developed countries in Europe and America has slowed down sharply, and some countries even experienced negative growth. In this situation, the import demand for China's goods will shrink sharply, which will slow down the growth of China's trade surplus, which is highly dependent on foreign trade, or even lead to negative growth, and will have an impact on the growth of China's GDP.
The third level is confidence. At present, the China government and entrepreneurs are optimistic about the future economic stability of China. However, in the international economic downturn, confidence is affected, will they increase investment? This is a problem.
Dyke believes that in any case, it is a fact that China's economic growth has slowed down. In 2008, China's economic growth forecast has dropped by two percentage points compared with last year, and next year's economic growth may be even slower. However, China's economy is still growing, inflation is still under control, and China's economy is far from the risk of stagflation. China people often say that risks and opportunities coexist, and he agrees with this statement. It is certain that China is playing and will play a more important role in this economic crisis and the future world financial order.
In terms of purchasing power, China's contribution to global GDP has exceeded 10%, and the contribution of the EU and the United States has exceeded 20%. The importance of China in the international economy is self-evident. In the foreseeable future, China will become one of the largest investors in the world, and China's rights and responsibilities in the international economic order will inevitably increase. China is not only a participant in the world economic and financial order, but also a creator of the new order.
There are many macro policies this year, and the first half of the year is contrary to the second half. The CPI continued to rise in the first half of the year, and the macro policy was mainly to curb investment growth. In the second half of the year, due to the continuous fermentation of the international financial crisis, macroeconomic policies focused on promoting economic growth.
1. Monetary policy: the money supply continued to shrink in the first half of the year, mainly by raising the deposit reserve ratio and issuing central bank bills; In the second half of the year, the deposit reserve ratio began to be lowered, and the issuance of central bank bills basically stopped, which meant that the total amount of social money increased, which could stimulate investment. There is still a lot of room for the deposit reserve ratio to fall.
2. Interest rate policy: In theory, rising interest rates can curb investment, but there were not many interest rate hikes in the first half of the year. This is mainly because the spread with foreign countries will attract international hot money and increase the possibility of inflation. In the second half of the year, interest rates will be cut continuously and will be cut in the future to stimulate investment.
3. Fiscal policy: The first half of the year was a prudent fiscal policy, with the goal of breaking even or making a slight surplus. In the second half of the year, it was changed to a positive expansionary fiscal policy. The purpose of fiscal expenditure of 4 trillion yuan in two years is to increase government expenditure and make up for the weakness of foreign markets.
4. Exchange rate policy: stable! The RMB can't go up or down now. L, will give a fatal blow to export-oriented enterprises; Health, not to mention the strong opposition from the United States and Europe, even from the economic situation in China, will also cause the current deformity in China to develop further, which really does more good than harm. China can only solve the problem of unfair distribution of national income and improve people's income and consumption capacity, and the RMB will still be on the track of appreciation.
5. Tax policy: reforming the value-added tax and appropriately increasing the export tax rebate can reduce the burden on enterprises and help them tide over the difficulties; Raise the bottom line of personal income tax, increase people's disposable income and increase consumption.
6. Industrial policy: Take this opportunity to shut down a number of backward enterprises and reduce market competition and resource consumption.
7. People's livelihood policy: policies such as promoting medical reform, strengthening retirement, medical and unemployment insurance, and speeding up the construction of low-rent housing can effectively reduce personal life pressure, increase disposable personal income, and thus increase consumption.
In view of the negative effects of the financial crisis, such as economic contraction and unemployment increase, there are mainly the following policy measures. It should be said that these policies and measures are related to national macroeconomic goals such as economic growth, inflation, unemployment and balance of payments, and will have a positive impact:
1. loose fiscal policy: tax reduction (the reduction of securities transaction tax and the cancellation of interest tax have been implemented) and expansion of government expenditure (4 trillion yuan to stimulate domestic demand is being implemented);
2. Loose monetary policy: the reduction of the deposit reserve ratio and the reduction of the benchmark loan interest rate are aimed at increasing the money supply in the market and expanding investment and consumption. On June 27th, 2008, 10, a 30% discount on the first home loan interest rate was also implemented;
3. Promoting foreign trade: the import and export industry bears the brunt, with a large number of employees (according to statistics, it has reached 1 100 million). First, increase the export tax rebate; Second, RMB appreciation is a means to increase export competitiveness;
4. Reduce the burden on enterprises: adjust the labor law, etc.
5. Strengthen public expenditure on social security/medical care, and maintain the stability of social and economic development environment;
6. Foreign economic cooperation and coordination. wait for
1 the reduction of stamp duty is a major positive. This policy actually reduces the transaction costs of market participants and will play a role in stabilizing the market. Most importantly, the reduction of stamp duty has released a clear policy signal that management should restore market confidence.
2. The reduction of stamp duty shows the attitude of the management to stabilize the market, and this round of decline has reflected all the negatives from the stock price.
3. From the historical experience such as "May 30", the reduction of stamp duty will undoubtedly greatly boost the short-term trend of the stock market, but it cannot change the running trend of the stock index.
In short, reducing stamp duty is not a panacea for all diseases. While maintaining confidence in the domestic stock market, we should also see the uncertainty of the market outlook and the problems existing in the market itself.
Theoretical significance: when most of the money is deposited in the bank ~ the interest rate is reduced ~ to stimulate people to spend or invest with money ~ this is equivalent to people taking money to deposit in the bank without interest! So at this time, take out the money to invest in the market or spend it ~ stimulate the growth of the market economy ~ at this time, the loan interest rate is relatively low, which also stimulates people to borrow money to invest in the market ~
Policy significance: if the interest rate is lowered, the interest rate of national debt will rise ~ at this time, more people will be stimulated to buy national debt, so that the money of national finance will be more circulated!
Deposit reserve refers to the currency deposited by commercial banks in the central bank according to regulations, and the proportion of these currencies in the deposits absorbed by commercial banks is the deposit reserve ratio. For example, if there are 100 deposits and 15 deposits are paid, the deposit reserve ratio will be 15%.
The deposit and loan interest rate refers to the bank deposit and loan interest rate.
The adjustment of these two things is monetary policy, which is also a means to control the circulation of money in the market. Providing the deposit reserve ratio means that the loanable funds of banks will decrease, the money supply will decrease, and the interest rate of deposits and loans will increase, which means that deposits are more cost-effective and loans are more expensive, which will attract people to save money, reduce loans and reduce the money supply.
If the interest rate is raised, the borrowing cost will increase, so relatively speaking, only raising the deposit reserve ratio is a moderate approach.
Zheng Jianxin, deputy director of the Department of Taxation and Administration of the Ministry of Finance, said on February 9th that the introduction of the value-added tax reform on June 65438+ 10 next year will reduce the burden on Chinese taxpayers by more than RMB 123 billion.
Zheng Jianxin said that at present, the global financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has rapidly spread to all countries and fields in the world, and China has also suffered greatly. Because a large part of China's economy depends on exports, our government and relevant departments are actively trying to find ways to take measures to quickly eliminate these effects.
Zheng Jianxin said that in this environment, we are also preparing to launch the VAT transformation at 5438+ 10/next June. In the past, we used to be a production-oriented value-added tax, but the value-added tax contained in the machinery and equipment purchased by enterprises was not allowed to be deducted. After this reform, the value-added tax contained in the equipment purchased by enterprises can be deducted. We have roughly calculated that the state can reduce the burden on taxpayers by more than 654.38+023 billion RMB. This reform can eliminate the repeated taxation factors determined by the current production-oriented value-added tax system, reduce the tax burden of enterprise equipment investment, encourage investment and expand domestic demand, promote enterprise technological progress, industrial structure adjustment and economic growth mode transformation, and play a very good role in enhancing enterprise development stamina, improving enterprise competitiveness and risk resistance, and overcoming the adverse effects brought about by the current financial crisis.
In the face of the severe economic situation in the global financial winter, the RMB exchange rate has fallen instead of rising. Keeping the RMB exchange rate basically stable is the best choice.