second, the RMB exchange rate has not been marketized, but a "managed" floating exchange rate. Even if the speculation of RMB in the market is strengthened, the "visible hand" of the central bank will operate the RMB exchange rate and dynamically adjust it according to the international trade balance.
Third, China has US$ 3.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, which is enough to withstand any impact on the RMB. In fact, China's foreign exchange reserves are mostly accumulated through the current trade surplus. China has not experienced a trade deficit since 1993. Even in 215, when the economic downturn is very heavy, it still has a trade surplus of 593.2 billion US dollars. This shows that China's commodity prices are still internationally competitive, and with such a large trade surplus, there is no need to improve the balance of payments by devaluing the RMB substantially. Although the outflow of capital account is obvious in recent months, the surplus of current account is enough to offset the flight of capital account, which will not pose a threat to foreign exchange reserves < P > Fourth, the sharp depreciation of RMB will induce trade barriers against China. In the past few years, some countries have always believed that we underestimated the value of the RMB and demanded its appreciation. For example, in order to improve the international price competitiveness of its products, the United States used to ask the China government to appreciate the RMB. In the 14 months after US President Barack Obama took office in the White House, he demanded RMB appreciation three times. On September 15th, 21, the US House of Representatives held a hearing in an attempt to put China on the list of "currency manipulators" to suppress the appreciation of RMB. On March 18th, 21, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund also demanded RMB appreciation. Therefore, if the RMB depreciates sharply, it will inevitably induce some countries to pressure the RMB to appreciate again and set more trade barriers against China, which will inevitably squeeze the international market of China products.
Fifth, we should consider the exchange cost and deposit interest rate. Converting RMB into US dollars for deposit and then converting US dollars into RMB for domestic consumption will increase the exchange cost and have interest loss (the interest rate of US dollars is lower than that of RMB). Even if RMB depreciates in the future, the exchange cost and interest loss will eat up the income from saving US dollars. Therefore, if there is no demand from consumption abroad, it is not cost-effective to convert RMB into US dollars unless our inflation rate is very high.
Take a look, an article collected before.