In 2022, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar depreciated by more than 9%. On the last trading day of 2022, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.95 14 at 6: 30, which was 5,784 basis points lower than 6.3730 at the end of last year and depreciated by 9.07%. 65438+On the evening of February 30th, after the central bank and the foreign exchange bureau announced the extension of the trading hours in the inter-bank foreign exchange market, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar stood at the 6.9 mark again at midnight, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar showed a trend of rising first, then depreciating and then recovering slightly, but the RMB remained basically stable against a basket of currencies.
CICC believes that the support of domestic policies, the strength of the US dollar, the changes in cross-border revenue and expenditure, and the exchange rate-related policies of the regulatory authorities are the key factors that affect the trend of the US dollar-RMB exchange rate in 2023. On the whole, the agency believes that there may be a wave of rebound in the first quarter of 2023, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB may rise to around 7.05.
However, after entering the second quarter, due to China's economic recovery and the transfer of the Federal Reserve, the RMB may return to the appreciation track. It is estimated that the exchange rate center between the US dollar and RMB will be around 6.70 in the fourth quarter of 2023.
The depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar means that the RMB is lower against the US dollar.