In the long run, the risk of resolving China's high foreign exchange reserves lies in reducing the amazing acceleration of foreign exchange reserves (the average annual growth rate of China's foreign exchange reserves in the past 10 was as high as 27.2%, and even as high as 42% in the last three years). The motive force comes from solving the deep-seated contradiction of China's economy through system or system reform, and promoting the transformation of China's economic growth mode, instead of giving up the fixed exchange rate and adopting the floating exchange rate. Exchange rate stability is a necessary condition for economic transformation. Basic economic principles tell us that exchange rate stability (different currencies are used in different regions of a country, which can be regarded as a permanent fixed exchange rate, just like the European Union today), and the adjustment, evolution, trade pattern and trade balance of a country's industries are all determined by market forces (changes in consumer demand and technological progress of producers). Once the exchange rate fluctuates, the price signal will only be more distorted, and the industrial structure and economic imbalance will be further deepened. (In fact, in China, the departments with real high production efficiency are sensitive to the exchange rate, such as the trade department, while the monopoly departments with low efficiency are not sensitive to the exchange rate. So how can we guide the optimization of resource allocation and the transformation of economic model? )。

In the short term, under the dollar standard, the most urgent thing at present is to reform the current foreign exchange reserve management system and find a reasonable channel for China to use foreign exchange, which is not only the most effective means to actively alleviate the pressure of RMB appreciation, but also a realistic choice to resist the risk of the dollar standard.

Frankly speaking, under the dollar standard, using foreign reserves to establish oil reserves, gold or other rare metal reserves is simply an issue that does not need to be discussed. What is worth discussing is just choosing the right time and how to do it.

From 200 1 to 2005, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 28%, 35%, 4 1%, 5 1% and 34.2% respectively. In the same period, gold rose from $250/ounce to $700/ounce; Oil from 20 dollars/barrel to 70 dollars/barrel; Copper ranges from 1.300 USD/ton to 8000 USD/ton. Calculate the purchasing power of China's nearly $1 trillion foreign exchange reserves. When China exchanged a lot of cheap goods for a pile of colorful dollar bills, we can see that China is balancing the financial risks that the United States may bring as the world's largest foreign exchange reserve country.

In addition, China is a developing country with extremely asymmetric resources and population. Oil fields, mines and even agricultural land should be the targets of China's large-scale foreign investment, and a strategic resource reserve commensurate with the national economic scale should be established. In order to speed up the upgrading of China's industrial structure, we should also import a large number of advanced technologies and equipment from developed countries, and even go directly to developed countries to buy related factories and R&D institutions. In order to better trade with other countries in the world, China should also speed up the modernization of port, shipping and aviation enterprises, and invest heavily in circulation enterprises and facilities overseas. In short, there are many areas where China should use foreign exchange for investment.

Therefore, considering the establishment of a reserve portfolio basket containing dollar assets, oil, gold, silver, copper and other rare metals is basically in line with the simple hedging idea of "opposing risks and stable prices". Under the dollar-based pattern, if the dollar appreciates, commodity prices will fall, but it will be in balance with the appreciation of dollar assets; If, as at present, Americans aggressively pursue the junk dollar policy, dollar assets may shrink, but global inflation will make commodity prices rise even more. As for the proportion of various reserves, how to buy them at the right market opportunity is a purely technical and strategic problem, but in China, it may be more important to decide on the system and mechanism. China must speed up the training and absorption of a group of operational talents who are familiar with the international financial market, and establish a set of efficient, highly confidential and unified decision-making reserve management mechanism and response mechanism, otherwise the current pattern of "departmental game and multi-head decision-making" will only ruin China's interests in the rapidly changing international financial market.