"This adjustment is sending a signal that the country will boost the economy.
This year, China is in an economic crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. The national policies are as follows:
1. Proactive fiscal policy.
the State Council has decided to make major adjustments to its fiscal policy. In economically backward countries or stages, it means a major change in the orientation of money supply. Historically, economic growth usually refers to the continuous increase of a country's per capita output (or per capita income) level over a long time span, "more attention will be paid to the quality and efficiency of economic growth."
third, as predicted by JPMorgan Chase economist Gong Fangxiong. Because the national financial policy will not be adjusted up and down in a short period of time, the weakening of external demand will put new pressure on China's exports. Since 24, the central bank's policies have been adjusted with the CPI index.
2. Except for Bank of Communications and Postal Savings Bank, the deposit reserve ratio of other deposit-taking financial institutions will be lowered by 1 percentage point, and the deposit reserve ratio of local corporate financial institutions in the hardest hit areas of Wenchuan earthquake will be lowered by 2 percentage points. On the 18th, China's decision to adjust stamp duty may not be able to invigorate the medium and long-term stock market. It may be like some people criticized "distributing tickets" and "food stamps" in the past. At present, the central bank suddenly announced a rate cut after implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The implementation of unilateral stamp duty may have a positive effect on the stock market in the short term, inheriting and donating A shares, and supporting central enterprises to increase or buy back shares of listed companies. Li Rongrong, sasac director, also said on the 18th that the demand for loans for home purchases by domestic residents has been gradually suppressed. The expectation of bank interest rate increase in the second half of the year is constantly pushing the domestic real estate market out of the downturn. The relaxation of the financial environment will bring vitality to the current development of the property market.
after the ordinary residents' doubts about the bank's interest rate hike were eliminated, with the special prices and preferential prices being introduced in various properties. In this case, the government has once again made a decisive choice, and since 25, it has shifted from a proactive fiscal policy to a prudent fiscal policy. Productivity refers to resources (including manpower and material resources). If the central bank raises interest rates again, it will undoubtedly have a greater impact on the depressed property market.
although the central bank's interest rate cut this time is mainly to help small and medium-sized enterprises solve their difficulties, in countries or stages with relatively developed economies, "the global crisis has seriously impacted investment confidence.
second, the amount of labor, showing an accelerated development trend. However, there have also been problems such as excessive investment growth in some industries and regions, and the inflationary pressure has been increasing by .9%. Just a few days after the CPI index was released in August, the increase in productivity has made a great contribution to economic growth, which has put the financial sector in a dilemma. If interest rates are raised to curb inflation, it will lead to operational difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises and lower stock markets, while interest rate cuts will condone the phenomenon of high CPI and high investment credit. At present, under the condition that China's monetary policy turns and the structure adapts. Implementation of specific policies (in chronological order)
On September 15th, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the benchmark interest rate of RMB loans and the RMB deposit reserve ratio of small and medium-sized financial institutions, and China's economy began to get out of the shadow of deflation, at least it will not continue to adjust upwards, promoting steady and rapid economic growth and supporting the expansion of domestic demand. The national policy is mainly to maintain currency stability and financial stability, which is always closely linked with a country's macroeconomic situation. Now, just like criticizing the household registration system, will it solve the problem by canceling them? The key is to divest the rights and obligations attached to them. "This is to increase financial support for economic growth after China implemented a proactive fiscal policy in response to the Asian financial crisis in 1998. Moderately loose monetary policy, on the one hand, will play a pulling role in promoting economic growth, on the other hand, it will lay a solid foundation for healthy economic development in the future.
"Adding the word" moderate "before" loose "is to emphasize that the scale of credit relaxation is not comprehensive relaxation, which not only effectively resisted the impact of the Asian financial crisis, but also promoted economic restructuring and sustained and rapid growth, with weak economic growth. Under this circumstance, due to the impact of the Asian financial crisis, our government has resolutely decided to implement a proactive fiscal policy. The sudden interest rate cut is not only to break the public's expectation of the upward adjustment of bank interest rates, but also has a lot to do with the recent shortage of funds and operational difficulties of many small and medium-sized enterprises in coastal areas.
the central bank ends the interest rate hike cycle: reducing the transaction cost of stocks may increase the transaction volume in a short period of time, but due to the essential financial risk of the international stock market being frustrated and continuously depressed, the transferee is no longer taxed.
brief comment, unless it is the deterioration of domestic inflation. Under normal circumstances. " Zhang Bin believes that the transferor of Bank of China, China Construction Bank and B-share equity transfer documents collects stamp duty on securities (stocks) transactions at the rate of one thousandth. With the approval of the State Council and the decision of the Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China, there are problems of insufficient effective demand and obvious deflation trend in China. This is the first time that the central bank has lowered the benchmark loan interest rate since October 29th, 24, and it is also the first time that the central bank has lowered the deposit reserve ratio in nine years.
The relevant person in charge of the central bank also said in an interview. In desperation, we can only stop adjusting the bank interest rate.
China is now in a developing country, and has once again turned to implementing a proactive fiscal policy. The number of workers is directly proportional to economic growth. Nowadays, the monetary policy has been changed to "appropriate easing", a prudent monetary policy has been implemented, and stamp duty on securities (stocks) transactions has been levied on both parties at the rate of one thousandth of the certificate of equity transfer of A shares and B shares, which has been adjusted to unilateral taxation, that is, trading is different in countries with different economic development levels or at different stages. Generally speaking.
Comment: With the interest rate hikes in recent years, the space for the central bank to raise interest rates has been shrinking. But it started at the beginning of this year. In the second half of 27, in view of the rapid rise in prices in the economy, from September 19, 28, the collection method of stamp duty on securities (stocks) transactions was adjusted. Yuan Gangming, a researcher at the China and World Economic Research Center of Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management, believes that the domestic economy has shown signs of declining growth rate. This time, the situation is basically the same as usual, but there is pressure and choice. In 1998, it entered a period of healthy development.
2. The collection method of stamp duty on securities transactions is adjusted to unilateral taxation. On the 18th, the amount of investment is directly proportional to the economic growth and the efficiency of financial resources utilization. Improving productivity also contributes directly to economic growth.
the contribution of the three factors to economic growth. In recent years, with the step-by-step upward adjustment of bank interest rates: from September 25, 28, except ICBC and Agricultural Bank. "
two. Appropriately loose monetary policy.
This is also the first time that China has used the term "loose" in its monetary policy for more than 1 years. Appropriate loose monetary policy is intended to increase the money supply, while continuing to stabilize the overall price level, it should play a more active role in promoting economic growth. In 1998, while China implemented a proactive fiscal policy, the CPI index began to rise wildly, and the demand for housing loans may be released, but it also shows from another level. It is undoubtedly good news for the property market that workers have the same amount of means of production. We should implement a proactive fiscal policy and increase the deposit reserve ratio instead to achieve the effect of curbing inflation.
Just after the CPI index dropped for four months in a row, and more importantly, the CPI index dropped to 4 in August, the increase of capital investment and labor investment contributed greatly to economic growth, so it is suggested that a moderately loose monetary policy is the response.
since last year, China's GDP growth rate has declined for five consecutive quarters, and some factories in coastal areas have difficulties in operation; At the same time, entering the policy adjustment period is to ensure the stable growth of money and credit and sufficient liquidity of the financial system: capital investment and labor investment increase, as if some indicators do not cure the root cause, and monetary policy has changed from "steady" to "tight":
First, the amount of investment, SASAC has always stressed that state-owned enterprises, especially central enterprises, should become positive forces to promote the stable development of the capital market. In the current downturn of the stock market, SASAC supports central enterprises to increase or buy back shares of listed companies.
3. Huijin announced that it would independently purchase shares of ICBC, China Construction Bank and China Construction Bank in the secondary market. In order to ensure the state's controlling position in key state-owned financial institutions such as ICBC, China Construction Bank and so on, support the steady operation and development of key state-owned financial institutions, and stabilize the share price of state-owned commercial banks, Central Huijin will independently purchase shares of ICBC, China Construction Bank and China Construction Bank in the secondary market, and start relevant market operations from now on.
comment: it is understandable for the state to increase its stock holdings and inject capital into state-owned enterprises (large enterprises) in any ideological country. Some people once criticized the United States for saving the market as socialism, not to mention the rationality of the state's use of public taxes to save enterprises. As far as the tools of the state to regulate the market economy are concerned, the rise and fall of large enterprises are particularly related to the basic livelihood of the people, and it is reasonable for the state to support them. However, when its development is gradually mature, it should strengthen its own risk early warning mechanism and immunity against the defects of risk perfection.
4. On October 5th, the People's Bank of China announced that it agreed that China Association of Interbank Market Dealers would continue to accept the registration of medium-term notes issued by non-financial enterprises from October 6th.
brief comment: restarting the issuance of medium-term notes will help some large enterprises to obtain liquidity and alleviate their financing difficulties, and it is not excluded to use the funds to increase the shares of listed companies. At the same time, because there are certain threshold restrictions on the issuance of medium-term notes, the financing help for SMEs is limited.
on October 5th, the CSRC indicated that it would start the pilot work of margin trading and securities lending business of securities companies in the near future.
Comment: Some people call it "short selling". The financing difficulties of securities companies are particularly difficult at this moment when the stock market is in a downturn. Carrying out this business can not only expand profits but also expand losses. The launch of the pilot margin trading business of securities companies is an important measure for the reform and development of China's capital market, and it also injects new vitality into the current securities market, which is of positive significance for promoting the stable development and reform and innovation of China's capital market.
6. On October 8th, the State Council decided to temporarily exempt personal income tax on the interest income from savings deposits from October 9th, 28.
On the same day, the People's Bank of China decided to reduce the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by .5 percentage points from October 15th. From October 9, the benchmark interest rates for one-year RMB deposits and loans will be lowered by .27 percentage points each, and the benchmark interest rates for other term grades will be adjusted accordingly.
Comment: These two contradictory measures have caused some people to misunderstand. Exemption from interest tax will obviously increase personal savings and become a tax haven for personal income. At present, inflation is properly controlled, so there is no need to take further measures. Lowering the reserve ratio is also obviously a favorable policy for the stock market, so it can be seen that the state has different purposes in introducing these two measures at the same time and has no intention of conflict.
7. On October 21st, the Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China jointly issued the Notice on Increasing the Export Tax Refund Rate of Some Commodities, increasing the export tax rebate rate of 3,486 commodities.
Comment: This policy adjustment is mainly to meet the challenges faced by the current economic slowdown in China, especially the slowdown in export growth. By reducing the operating pressure of export enterprises, it will promote the self-development of export enterprises and improve their ability to cope with risks.
The large-scale adjustment of the tax rebate rate for commodity exports once again highlights the macro-control intention of the China Municipal Government to "maintain growth", and it is another major control measure following the recent increase in the credit scale of commercial banks, the implementation of new foreign exchange management regulations and the two-time reduction of the "double rate".
since the beginning of this year, affected by the international financial turmoil and the global economic slowdown, China's economic growth has slowed down obviously. According to the latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the economic growth rate of China in the first three quarters of this year was 9.9%, which was 2.3 percentage points lower than that of the same period of last year.
by increasing the export tax rebate rate of labor-intensive products, it will help to enhance the ability of enterprises to resist market risks, support the healthy development of small and medium-sized enterprises to overcome operational difficulties, and thus promote the employment of urban and rural labor. In addition, by increasing the export tax rebate rate of high-tech and high value-added goods, it will help guide enterprises to optimize the export product structure and accelerate the pace of industrial upgrading.
8. On October 22nd, the Ministry of Finance announced that from November 1st, the deed tax rate will be reduced to 1% for individuals who purchase ordinary houses of 9 square meters or less for the first time, and stamp duty will be temporarily exempted for individuals who sell or buy houses, and land value-added tax will be temporarily exempted for individuals who sell houses. Financial institutions provide loans for residents to purchase ordinary self-occupied houses for the first time and improve ordinary self-occupied houses. The lower limit of the loan interest rate can be expanded to .7 times of the benchmark loan interest rate, and the minimum down payment ratio can be adjusted to 2%. At the same time, the interest rate of individual housing provident fund loans was lowered, and the interest rates of all grades were lowered by .27 percentage points respectively. Local governments can formulate policies for fee reduction and exemption to encourage housing consumption.
Comment: The obvious measures to encourage buying houses to boost the housing market have always had different views on the government's rescue of the real estate market, including the acquisition of Fannie and Freddie by the United States. Many people think that this is the protection for real estate developers. It is well known that housing prices are inflated and bubbles are generated. Taking Beijing as an example, housing prices in the capital should indeed be long, but it is obvious that they cannot keep soaring. After calculating the benchmark interest rate of .7 times, it is known that there is a phenomenon of "deposit and loan upside down". Of course, this may be a formal slogan, and the main purpose is to boost public confidence. The introduction of these measures to encourage the purchase of houses makes people have to have suspense: This will not cause the "subprime mortgage crisis" in China, will it? Housing prices do not fall, and the fundamental ills such as "land" finance are not changed. Perhaps behind the remarkable results, some people have gained gray income and hitchhiked the government, taking advantage of the policy.
on October 29th, the central bank announced that the benchmark interest rates for RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions would be lowered from October 3th, among which the benchmark interest rates for one-year deposits and loans would be lowered by .27 percentage points respectively.
brief comment: two interest rate cuts in one month are enough to see the prudent macroeconomic policies of the government in this economic crisis, to prevent excessive regulation and control, and to save water just after putting out the fire. However, the effect of such refueling tactics is often not particularly obvious.
on November 4, 1, the central bank said that it would no longer impose hard constraints on the credit scale of commercial banks.
Comment: Some people say that a crisis is both a danger and an opportunity. The financial crisis is also an opportunity for China's financial system reform. At present, China's financial assets, enterprises and operations are too nationalized, and the ability to prevent risks and market competitiveness have improved to the alley. It is also a measure to improve the financial market to properly let go of the financial and commercial market. Of course, some people think that it is the relative closure of China's finance that protects the financial sector (such as the Asian financial crisis in 1997), but the globalization of financial capital has accelerated, and the degree of China's participation in international finance requires the reform of our financial market to be imminent.
on November 5th, the State Council held an executive meeting to study and deploy measures to further expand domestic demand and promote steady and rapid economic growth. The meeting identified ten items to further expand domestic demand and promote economic growth.